Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
401 FXUS64 KFWD 282359 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 659 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms will weaken as they move southward through the I-20 corridor this evening, ahead of a cold front. There will be a low threat for strong to severe winds and hail. - Chances for showers and storms along with cooler weather continue Friday through the holiday weekend with the passage of a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 113 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025/ /Today through Friday Afternoon/ The region remains planted in between the mid-level ridge to our west and the trough to our east/northeast, with northwest flow overtop the Southern and Central Plains. This flow regime is allowing a shortwave disturbance to move NW-SE across the Plains today, sending its attendant cold front southward. The front and its associated convection is currently draped across Central Oklahoma, and will slowly move south the rest of today with scattered showers/storms expected to continue developing along and ahead of the boundary. With North and Central Texas remaining south of the front through the afternoon, winds at the surface and low-levels will veer more southwesterly. Southwest flow in our area results in compressional downslope flow from the Trans Pecos and Big Bend areas, and will result in warmer temperatures. This will remain true as afternoon highs will peak in the in the 90s for most today, with triple digit heat indices. The exception to this is our far northeastern counties, who will come in a little cooler due to cloud cover. While CAM guidance continues to be wishy-washy with the frontal timing tonight, the most likely scenario is for the front and any associated storms to cross the Red River around 5-6 PM. With the Southern Plains remaining within the grip of the eastern periphery of the ridge, coverage will remain a bit more spotty for most of our area. The exception will be our northeastern counties as they will be located closer to the passing shortwave disturbance. There will be a chance for strong to severe storms late this afternoon into the evening for areas near the Red River down to near the I-20 corridor, with highest severe chances in our northeast. as the environment near the Red River will feature 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE and just enough deep layer shear for storms to become organized. Additionally, long, skinny CAPE profiles and PWATs between 1.75-2" will promote efficient rainfall rates. All this said, the more robust cells will be capable of strong to damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain. Timing for the severe threat will be mainly between 5PM-11PM. Coverage of storms and their intensity will decline as the front moves further south through North Texas overnight. The front is expected to move south over the day Friday, reaching the DFW Metro and I-20 corridor around 9-10 PM tonight and then slowly sag through Central Texas tomorrow morning. With the front still draped across Central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the temperature gradient will be slightly steeper from north to south. Friday`s highs will range between the upper 70s-low 90s in North Texas to the low-mid 90s in Central Texas. The front will still serve as a focus for isolated to scattered storm development, with the best chances remaining across our eastern and Central Texas counties through the afternoon. There could be a few counties in southern Central Texas that may reach the 2 day Heat Advisory criteria for heat index (105+) today and tomorrow, but there is considerable uncertainty on whether or not this will actually occur. Dewpoints have been lower than what the NBM has brought in, which means we are mixing out more efficiently than forecast. Additionally, with the front expected to be in Central Texas tomorrow there are higher chances for precipitation. The potential for increased cloud cover and cold pools from convection create high bust potential for Friday. As such, have foregone issuing a Heat Advisory at this time. Nonetheless, it`ll be hot today and tomorrow in Central Texas, so make sure to stay cool and hydrated. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 113 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025/ /Friday Evening Onward/ North and Central Texas will remain sandwiched between the ridge to our west and the trough to our east-northeast through the upcoming weekend. With northwest flow aloft prevailing, multiple shortwave disturbances and their associated storm complexes are expected to move into the region both Saturday and Sunday. Rain cooled air and cloud cover will aid in keeping temperatures cooler, with highs in the 80s for most, though some areas in Central Texas will likely reach the low 90s on Saturday. Looking into next week, we`ll dry out somewhat early in the week, but a digging shortwave disturbance will bolster the longwave trough across the Eastern CONUS while shunting the ridge further west. This will allow for another cold front to move through mid-late next week, with additional chances for rain. The CPC Outlook continues to favor below normal temperatures and above normal rain through the first week of September, so we`ll need to keep an eye on this as we transition out of meteorological summer into meteorological fall! Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ A west to east-oriented convective band continues to drop southward through D10 and adjacent areas of North Texas early this evening. New individual cells continue to form in and near the band, yet the overall trend of the activity is to slowly weaken as the regional environment gradually becomes less unstable this evening. Most of the thunderstorms should exit the D10 area by around 01-02z, though additional showers are possible through the remainder of the night. A few elements of this line may approach Waco overnight, but not confident enough about their progression into Central Texas to warrant inclusion of VCTS at KACT overnight. A marked outflow boundary has surged southward through D10, and in its wake a northeastly to easterly surface wind regime, at speeds of 8-12 knots, will persist at area TAF sites through the overnight hours. Locally erratic winds gusting to 25 knots are still possible near thunderstorms through 02z. Sky conditions will remain VFR through most of the night, but a layer of SCT-BKN015 clouds are expected to develop across parts of North Texas after 10z, creating MVFR conditions at the Metroplex TAF sites through 15z. Should see MVFR ceilings give way to VFR cigs by 15z, with some scattering of this lower cloud deck after 18z. Winds will back gradually to a northerly or northeasterly direction at speeds of 8-14 knots from 18z to 00z, as a cold front clears the area and ushers in high pressure from the north. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop within the greater D10 area after 16z, but confidence in timing and locations is not sufficient to mention VCTS at this time. Thunder will likely be added to the Metroplex TAFs for Friday with subsequent forecast packages, however. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 90 73 85 72 / 50 30 30 50 40 Waco 77 95 75 89 73 / 20 30 30 50 50 Paris 68 79 68 82 68 / 70 50 40 40 30 Denton 71 88 70 85 70 / 50 30 30 50 40 McKinney 71 86 70 84 70 / 60 30 30 50 40 Dallas 75 90 73 86 73 / 50 30 30 50 40 Terrell 74 89 71 85 70 / 50 40 40 50 40 Corsicana 77 93 74 87 73 / 30 40 40 50 40 Temple 76 96 73 91 71 / 10 30 30 50 50 Mineral Wells 72 92 71 86 70 / 30 30 30 60 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$