Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
056 FXUS64 KFWD 301836 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 136 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New Short Term, Aviation, Long Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will periodically impact the area the rest of the Labor Day weekend, with the highest rain chances tomorrow. - Severe weather is unlikely, but those with outdoor plans should stay aware for the potential of heavy rainfall, localized flooding, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. - Following slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend, highs will return to the 80s and lower 90s next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon Through Sunday/ This morning`s showers and storms have gradually shifted east/southeast the previous few hours, with scattered convection now east of the I-35 corridor as of midday. Across North and East Texas, a few locations have picked up as much as 3 inches of rain today due to the slow moving nature of the NW-SE oriented storms. Attention will start to shift towards Central Texas for the rest of the afternoon, where a stationary surface boundary act as a focus for additional storm development, although coverage will be lower than the North TX storms this morning. 0-6 km shear around 20-30 kts will support a few semi-organized clusters potentially developing across Central Texas, with any robust cells capable of strong downburst winds. Chances are highest later this afternoon (40-60%) as we enter peak heating for those generally along and south of a Goldthwaite-Waco-Palestine line. Mean flow aloft is out of the west-northwest with storm direction predominantly towards the east-southeast, outside of any influence with storm interaction and outflow boundaries. This activity will wane with loss of heating, leaving most of tonight largely quiet before the next main round arrives early Sunday. Highs this afternoon will be stunted by cloud cover once again, topping out in the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and north of HWY 380. Elsewhere, it`ll climb into the mid/upper 80s and even low 90s in the Brazos Valley and Temple-Killeen area. Tonight, another shortwave perturbation aloft will aid in an additional wave of convection developing to the northwest and shifting through much of North and Central Texas throughout the day Sunday. Ahead of it, broad ascent along a similarly oriented NW-SE axis of low level moisture may develop isolated showers and a few storms as early as 2 AM, at which point the main complex of storms should still be developing across the TX Panhandle/wrn OK. Storms will increase in coverage before daybreak, with the bulk of precipitation moving through around 5 am through the rest of the morning. The the highest rain chances will then gradually shift south of the area through the afternoon. Similar to today, localized instances of flooding are the main concern with this activity, which will be of higher concern for the areas that end up receiving the heaviest rains today. Otherwise, some clearing will occur behind the storms tomorrow, with highs expected in the low to mid 80s. Gordon && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ Update: No significant changes were made to the extended forecast, with the discussion below in line with the latest update. While isolated storms can`t be ruled out in North Texas on Monday (20% chance), the greater likelihood of seeing Labor Day storms will be in Central Texas (~30-50% chance). Not everyone will see rain, but those that do may be impacted by additional brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Gordon Previous Discussion: /Monday Onward/ The old stalled frontal boundary will become increasingly washed out and diffuse heading into Monday, but upstream troughing and weak low-level convergence will still support low rain chances on Labor Day. However, coverage is expected to be more isolated/scattered in comparison to Sunday, and many areas will likely stay dry. Highs should be able to rebound into the upper 80s for many areas with less widespread cloud cover than previous days. A much deeper east CONUS trough, certainly anomalous for early September, is progged to take shape on Tuesday which will persist through the second half of the week. This regime will send another cold front through the forecast area on Tuesday with drier air filtering in behind it. While some low rain chances may exist with the initial frontal passage itself, much of the midweek period is shaping up to be dry and rather pleasant with dewpoints in the 50s arriving within northerly surface flow. Persistent northwest flow aloft could send one or more storm complexes towards the area later in the week as low-level flow returns to southeasterly, and low PoPs will return to the forecast on Thursday and Friday to account for this potential. Highs through most of the workweek will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s, with a couple nights of lows dipping into the low/mid 60s. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Conditions across D10 are gradually improving as the bulk of this morning`s precipitation is shifting into East Texas. Spotty showers and temporary reductions in cig/vis may occur over the next couple of hours, but coverage of this should be sparse with mostly low-end VFR largely prevailing. For Waco, the best storm chances this afternoon are from ~19-22Z. Coverage will be lower in Central Texas, warranting VCTS with the lower confidence on direct TS impacts. After this, a temporary reprieve from deteriorated conditions should occur the rest of today, before an additional round of showers and storms (not too dissimilar from today) impacts the majority of the region tomorrow morning, with IFR moving in around 08-09Z. The latest timing for the highest thunder potential is around 10-14Z for D10 and 13-16Z for ACT, with timing likely needing refinement in future issuances. Gordon && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 72 82 71 86 / 70 80 90 40 20 Waco 90 73 81 71 85 / 50 70 90 60 40 Paris 82 70 79 68 84 / 20 50 60 30 20 Denton 84 70 83 68 86 / 60 80 80 30 20 McKinney 83 71 81 68 85 / 50 70 80 40 20 Dallas 84 73 82 71 86 / 70 70 90 40 20 Terrell 83 72 80 69 85 / 60 60 80 40 20 Corsicana 86 74 82 71 86 / 60 70 90 50 30 Temple 92 72 85 69 86 / 40 60 80 60 50 Mineral Wells 87 71 83 69 86 / 70 80 90 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$