451
FXUS64 KFWD 230733
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
133 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread travel impacts due to wintry precipitation are
  expected to begin this evening across North Texas and Saturday
  across Central Texas. Precipitation will end Sunday, but travel
  impacts will likely linger into at least Monday.

- Strong winds and ice on tree limbs and power lines could cause
  sporadic power outages Saturday and Sunday.

- Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below zero could
  result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Extreme cold
  will become life threatening to people and animals, especially
  Saturday and Sunday nights.

- Very cold temperatures will increase the risk of broken pipes
  and water damage due to a prolonged period of sub-freezing
  temperatures tonight through Tuesday.

- Final preparations for the impending winter weather need to be
  completed now!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday Through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

An impactful winter storm is expected to unfold later
today/tonight through the weekend across the region.

Fog is expected for the remainder of the night across portions of
Central Texas, with some isolated dense fog possible. Rain will
begin to develop across the region this morning, increasing in
coverage throughout the day today. The highly anticipated Arctic
front will move through North Texas late this morning through the
afternoon, continuing south through Central Texas this evening.
Temperatures will steadily decline behind the front, resulting in
a transition to a wintry mix from north to south as temperatures
fall below freezing. Areas near the Red River will likely see
the transition to a wintry mix by late this afternoon or early
evening, with the I-20 corridor transitioning to a wintry mix late
this evening or just after midnight tonight (Friday night).
Freezing rain will be the main precipitation type initially, but
a small amount of elevated instability will be present, which will
likely result in pockets of sleet at times. Ice accumulations
will result in the onset of travel impacts shortly after the
wintry mix begins, with bridges/overpasses being the first to be
compromised. Ice accumulations on surface roads will take a bit
longer compared to bridges/overpasses, but we will likely start to
see impacts to all roadways as temperatures fall into the mid 20s.
Additionally, tree damage and sporadic power outages will begin
to occur as ice accumulates on trees and power lines.

Temperatures will continue to drop throughout the day Saturday,
with high temperatures occurring during the morning. As
temperatures drop, the freezing line will continue to migrate
south, with a wintry mix expected across the entire forecast area
by midday Saturday at the latest. By Saturday afternoon, much of
North Texas will likely see a transition to mostly sleet, with a
wintry mix expected to continue across Central Texas. Some of the
latest CAMs are depicting a brief lull in precipitation Saturday
afternoon, but have opted to stick closely to the broad-brushed
NBM PoPs for now until better agreement among guidance is
achieved. Impacts to roads, trees, and power lines will continue
to worsen throughout the day as ice continues to accumulate
throughout the region.

Our final and perhaps most widespread round of precipitation is
expected Saturday evening through Sunday morning. By the time this
occurs, sleet will likely be the dominant precipitation type for
most of the region, but snow will become increasingly likely
Saturday night into Sunday morning. We will likely see a
transition to a sleet/snow mix across much of the region overnight,
with a full transition to snow likely occurring for areas near
the Red River. Precipitation should finally end from west to east
as the upper level trough responsible for our wintry weather
gradually moves east across the area on Sunday. Event total ice
accumulations will be between 1/4" and 1/2" for most locations,
with high end totals (mainly across portions of East Texas)
expected to be around 3/4". Sleet/snow accumulations are still
expected to be between 3 to 5" along/north of Highway 380, with
isolated 6" possible. The rest of North Texas and northern Central
Texas will see sleet/snow totals between 1 to 3 inches on
average, with less than 1" expected across our southern zones.

Bitterly cold temperatures are expected over the weekend and into
early next week, especially Saturday night and Sunday night when
wind chills will bottom out as low as 5 to 10 degrees below zero.
High temperatures on Sunday will only be in the upper teens to mid
20s. Low temperatures Sunday night are expected to be below 10
degrees areawide. 10 degrees is the threshold where frozen/broken
pipes become increasingly likely. It will be very important to
drip your faucets throughout the weekend, especially as the cold
peaks during the second half of the weekend into early next week.
Travel impacts will linger throughout the day Sunday with no
improvement expected as very cold and cloudy conditions prevail.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Skies should clear Sunday night into Monday, with highs on Monday
expected to be in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures are
expected to remain below freezing for roughly the eastern 1/2 of
the forecast area and areas along the Red River. While the sun
will work in our favor to melt *some* of the ice and snow, it`s
unclear just how much improvement we will see on Monday,
especially for areas that are expected to remain below freezing.
For any melting that is able to occur, any liquid left on the
ground Monday evening will refreeze overnight as temperatures fall
into the single digits and teens once again. More significant
improvement is expected on Tuesday, as temperatures will reach
into the upper 30s and 40s. Another cold front mid-week will
reinforce the cold air across the region, with highs in the mid
30s to mid 40s currently forecast Wednesday and Thursday with
morning lows in the teens to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Aviation impacts due to weather will continue to increase through
the next 30 hours across North and Central Texas. The immediate
impact will be the continued decrease in cloud heights across the
region. For Waco, IFR is ongoing  with cloud heights around 500
feet. Over the next few hours, all North Texas TAF sites will see
a decrease in cloud heights with widespread IFR expected by 08z.
IFR to LIFR conditions are then expected through the rest of this
TAF cycle as liquid precipitation transitions to a mix of frozen
precipitation Saturday.

As continued moistening occurs today, drizzle is expected to
develop closer to 12z across North Texas. For Central Texas, fog
is expected to impact Waco generally between 10-14z. Fog/drizzle
will then transition to rain that will persist through the rest of
the day across the region. A cold front is expected to arrive
across North Texas late in the morning. Given winds are already
expected to be out of the northeast when this occurs, a
significant wind shift is not expected. What will occur, however,
will be the arrival of much colder air that will reach the
freezing mark closer to 06z.

Freezing rain is now in the KDFW TAF starting at 06z Saturday as
temperatures hover around 30-32 degrees through the night. This
addition will be included in the rest of the North Texas TAFs for
the 12z package. Closer to 12z Saturday, a transition from
freezing rain to sleet is expected. This timing will continue to
be analyzed through the next few hours and will also be added to
the 12z TAFs. The sleet may be heavy at times, leading to
accumulations on all surfaces through the day on Saturday.

For Waco, the timing of frozen precipitation will be later on
Saturday as the cold air will be slower to arrive. By Saturday
afternoon, sleet pellets will mix with freezing rain with IFR
conditions in place.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  26  27  14 /  90 100 100 100
Waco                56  32  32  16 /  80  90 100 100
Paris               45  22  23  14 /  80 100 100 100
Denton              47  24  25   9 / 100 100 100 100
McKinney            47  25  26  13 /  90 100 100 100
Dallas              51  27  28  14 /  90 100 100 100
Terrell             49  27  27  15 /  90 100 100 100
Corsicana           55  30  31  20 /  80  90 100 100
Temple              60  32  34  17 /  70 100 100 100
Mineral Wells       50  23  24  10 / 100 100 100 100

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Monday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
TXZ135-142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Hernandez