368
FXUS64 KFWD 161024
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
524 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms are expected today mainly east of
  I-35 and in Central TX.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected this week with low rain
  chances returning Wednesday night through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes are needed to the forecast this morning. A couple
of isolated showers have developed south of Temple over the last
hour and this area will be favored for some continued isolated
early morning activity. Coverage should be 10% or less. Later
today, scattered showers and storms will generally be confined to
southeast TX, a few of which will likely spread into our far
southeastern counties. Elsewhere, it`ll be warm and humid today
with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat indices climbing above 100
degrees in many areas.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Tuesday/

Slightly cooler but humid conditions persist across North and
Central Texas tonight with ample high cloud cover streaming across
the region. The complex of showers/storms that moved through North
and Central TX on Sunday effectively used up most of the
instability across the region and with only slight recovery
expected overnight, we`ll likely remain precipitation free into
early Monday morning. The only exception may be our far southeast
counties where a trailing outflow boundary may serve as a focus
for a few isolated showers. Near calm winds may lead to some
patchy fog in some outlying areas. If the high clouds can thin
enough, then we may see a little more area impacted by some fog.

By Monday morning, mid level ridging will try to expand eastward
just a bit. We`ll still remain within modest northerly flow
aloft, but the best combination of any forcing for ascent and
moisture will be across our far east and southeast counties where
we`ll have 20% PoPs. Otherwise, it`ll be quite a bit warmer on
Monday with highs climbing into the low/mid 90s and heat indices
topping out near 103 degrees. The ridging will expand a little
farther east on Tuesday with increasing south/southwest flow above
the surface. This will support temperatures in the mid 90s, but
deeper mixing may allow dewpoints to fall through the afternoon
keeping heat indices in check a bit. No precipitation is expected
on Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 139 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025/
/Tuesday Onward/

Mid-level ridging will keep seasonable temperatures in place
during the second half of the work week, with high temperatures in
the 90s and warm/muggy mornings in the 70s. High humidity will
result in triple digit heat index values for many locations
Wednesday and Thursday, though we should remain just below Heat
Advisory criteria (105 degrees). A shortwave trough will usher a
weak cold front towards the region late Wednesday, which will
result in low rain chances Wednesday night primarily across North
Texas. The remainder of the period will be rain-free for most of
the forecast area, outside of some isolated seabreeze activity in
our far southern zones. Heading into the weekend, mid-level
ridging may slightly weaken, which will shave a few degrees off of
high temperatures. However, it will still be warm with highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Some morning low clouds and fog have developed over the last few
hours, but most of this has been to the east of the major
airports. A canopy of high clouds has been persistent for much of
the night but this is also starting to thin out a bit this
morning. There is still some very low potential for brief MVFR
cigs to develop just after sunrise but satellite trends aren`t
overly concerning for widespread low cloud cover. We`ll likely
pull the TEMPO for MVFR cigs this morning from the latest TAF.
Otherwise a light southwest flow will prevail today with winds
around 5-7 kt. Winds will become more southerly this evening.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  77  94  77  94 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                93  74  92  75  93 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               88  74  90  74  90 /  10   0   0   0   5
Denton              93  75  94  76  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            92  75  93  76  93 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              94  77  95  77  95 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             91  74  91  75  92 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           90  76  92  76  92 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              93  74  93  75  94 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       95  74  97  75  96 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$