Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
578 FXUS64 KFWD 311047 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 547 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures between 97 to 103 and dry conditions will continue today and Tuesday. Increasing humidity may push heat indices near advisory levels on Tuesday. - A tropical system will bring increasing rain chances to eastern Central Texas from Tuesday night through Thursday, with dry but somewhat cooler conditions across the rest of Central and North Texas due to widespread clouds and increased humidity. - Hot and dry conditions will return by next weekend with highs between 96 to 103. - An elevated fire threat will continue today and tomorrow, but a decrease in the fire threat is anticipated for Wednesday and Thursday due to rain chances, increased humidity, widespread clouds, and slightly cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 00Z 500mb upper air analysis shows the large upper ridge that has brought us weeks of hot and dry weather is currently centered over eastern Oklahoma. Global models indicate the ridge will slide eastward today into the mid-Mississippi Valley with 500mb heights falling slightly over North and Central Texas. Temperatures should subsequently be near or slightly lower than what we saw on Sunday, but still hot with highs in the 97 to 103 range. Low level moisture is notably lower this morning with dewpoints still in the 50s and 60s at this hour, and given the dry airmass today no rain is anticipated. By tomorrow, deeper Gulf moisture is expected to spread northwestward into the forecast area ahead of a developing tropical system in the northern Gulf. With hot temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s still anticipated on Tuesday, afternoon heat index values may climb above our heat advisory criteria in parts of our eastern half. Since this looks borderline attm, will hold off on any heat advisory for now and let later shifts evaluate the need for any heat headlines. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Speaking of the tropics, our midweek forecast has undergone some notable changes since yesterday due to the unexpected development of the tropical wave moving westward along the Gulf Coast. Although previous model runs indicated this system would remain unorganized, satellite imagery and buoy/oil rig observations show a closed circulation taking shape south of the Louisiana coast. Therefore, NHC indicates a TD or TS is likely to form today before the system makes landfall on the Upper Texas coast tonight into Tuesday morning. Models generally bring the weakening system northwestward up the I-45 corridor into our southeast counties Tuesday night into Wednesday, then show the system falling apart as it runs into the upper ridge and drier air across North Texas from Wednesday night into Thursday. Based on all of this, pops have been greatly increased across our southeast counties in the Tuesday night through Thursday timeframe in line with the latest NBM guidance. Model QPF is all over the place, but given the small size and weakening nature of this tropical system, only limited rainfall amounts in our forecast area seem likely. Current thinking is for 0.25 to 1 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts across our southeast counties, while most of the CWA west of I-35 and north of I-20 receives little if any rain from this event. Even so, more widespread clouds and increased humidity will bring a slight reprieve from the intense heat with temperatures down into the 90s, while also reducing our fire threat for a few days. By this weekend, 00Z model guidance shows the upper ridge sliding back westward into the southern and central Plains while strengthening once again. This pattern shift should shutoff our rain chances while also sending our temperatures back up into the 100s for Labor Day weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with just a few clouds around 10k ft and south winds around 10 knots. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 81 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 100 77 99 75 / 0 0 10 20 Paris 100 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 101 77 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 100 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 102 81 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 101 76 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 100 77 99 75 / 0 0 10 20 Temple 100 75 99 74 / 0 0 10 20 Mineral Wells 101 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger