Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
407 FXUS64 KFWD 272348 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 648 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat index values near/slightly above 100 are forecast Thursday, and readings tomorrow may be among the hottest we`ll see for the remainder of the summer/early fall. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms may move southward across the Red River Thursday evening and overnight, providing a marginal threat of strong winds and hail. - Increasing rain chances and cooler weather return Friday on through the holiday weekend behind the passage of a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ /Through Friday/ Recent water vapor imagery shows a mid-level ridge remains in place over our state. At the same time, southerly flow in the lower levels continues to bring gulf moisture into our region. With a steady stream of higher dewpoints, the weak surface boundary near our southern counties of Central Texas should continue to retract north the rest of the day. We`re still expecting a round of isolated showers and storms through early this evening mainly for portions of western Central Texas and the Big Country. Some of this activity may approach the I-35 corridor in North Texas, but if anything develops it should be short-lived with only a 10% chance of rain. Occasional lightning and brief heavy rain will be the main concern with any storm today. For the rest of us, expect mostly sunny skies with the exception of the far northeast zones where clouds may hang around the rest of the day. Temperatures will be near normal for late August with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. Those areas that stay mostly cloudy will see highs in the upper 80s. For tomorrow, we`re still expecting a hot, breezy, humid day ahead of an approaching cold front. Latest guidance shows a mid- level wave rotating around an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, moving into portions of the southern Plains (eastern OK and AR). This will push the cold front towards our region late Thursday into Friday. Ahead of it, breezy southwest flow near the surface will bring hot/humid air with widespread highs in the mid/upper 90s. While there is some low rain chances in the morning across the northeast, the best chance for storms for North Texas will arrive in the late afternoon and evening with the help of daytime heating. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible due to sufficient instability and deep-layer shear. Currently, we are monitoring areas along the Red River and the northeastern counties for the threat of strong/severe downburst winds, hail and locally heavy rain. As expected, CAMs still differ on the timing of the front and coverage of storms ahead/along of it. Some have convection developing along the Red River by mid afternoon (after 3 pm) and others don`t show much until the evening (after 7pm). The most likely scenario at this time is that we will see storms developing over Oklahoma in the early afternoon hours and then tracking south along the Red River by late afternoon or early evening (after 5 pm). Rain chances will expand across our region overnight and Friday as the front pushes south. The highest PoPs continue to be across East Teas where the highest lift/moisture will reside. Highs on Friday will depend on the progression/position of the front and the clouds/rain. Areas behind the front will likely stay in the 80s while areas ahead of the front (mostly Central TX) will see highs in the low/mid 90s. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ /Weekend and Early Next Week/ The weekend will remain somewhat active with northwest flow aloft sending a couple of disturbances across the region. We will have at least a slight chance for showers and storms Saturday and Sunday area-wide with the best coverage (30-50%) across Central Texas and the Hill Country. By Labor Day (Monday), rain chances will be confined to our southern zones as the second wave departs. We won`t see a washout over the weekend, and many locations will miss the rain during this period. The main concern with any storm will be occasional lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain. In particular for those with outdoor activities during this holiday weekend, make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast. The combination of rain, clouds and northerly winds will keep the daytime highs in the 80s Saturday and Sunday. A gradual warming trend will commence next week but highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s to low 90s through mid-week. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ A weak warm front will continue to lift northward toward the Red River this evening and overnight, leaving in its wake a warm and relatively stable environment across North Texas. A few residual showers and thunderstorms, triggered by afternoon heating well southwest of D10, will steadily dissipate through 01-02z, leaving scattered to broken high level cloudiness in place across the region overnight. A southeasterly surface wind regime at speeds of 6 to 10 knots will prevail areawide overnight. VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late afternoon Thursday. With a large mid level ridge of high pressure in place over the Southern Plains, subsidence-induced heating and drying will severely limit additional convective development at all TAF sites (and elsewhere) through at least 22z. However, short-term model guidance continues to advertise the evolution of a vigorous convective band over southern Oklahoma by early Thursday afternoon. This activity should drop southward toward (and perhaps across) the Red River between 21z and 00z, facilitated by a fairly unstable airmass in place across North Texas and Southern Oklahoma. At least some scattered elements of this convective band may very well impinge on the northern portions of D10 perhaps as early as 23z, but more likely in the 00z-03z time frame. Am not overly confident in the presence of this activity in the Metroplex late tomorrow afternoon, but did feel the setup looks favorable enough to warrant inclusion of at least VCTS at KDFW starting at 00z. It`s not out of the question we could see convective impacts in the D10 airspace from 23z-05z if this activity overachieves. Otherwise, surface winds will veer to a southwesterly direction from late morning Thursday onward through the afternoon hours. The gradient will tighten up a tad, and we should see sustained winds of at least 8-12 knots at most TAF sites. We may wind up with some gusts in excess of 20 knots, should we manage to mix down a bit more momentum than expected during the heat of the day. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 97 76 91 72 / 10 20 50 40 30 Waco 75 97 77 95 73 / 20 10 20 50 30 Paris 69 91 69 80 68 / 10 60 90 60 30 Denton 75 97 72 89 68 / 10 20 60 40 30 McKinney 75 96 73 88 69 / 10 30 60 40 30 Dallas 77 97 76 92 73 / 5 20 50 40 30 Terrell 74 95 73 89 70 / 5 20 50 50 30 Corsicana 76 96 76 94 73 / 5 10 40 60 40 Temple 73 96 75 96 73 / 20 5 10 40 30 Mineral Wells 74 97 72 91 70 / 20 10 40 40 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$