Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
753 FXUS64 KFWD 120520 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1220 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - A quiet weather pattern is expected through much of the week with highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s. - Chances for rain/storms return late Friday and continue through the weekend as the next storm system approaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026 North and Central Texas will be positioned between a ridge over the Rockies and a trough across the southeast for the next few days, generating a northwest flow regime overhead through the midweek period. At the surface, a ridge axis currently stretched across the area will slide off to the east, shifting winds to the southeast during the day today. Winds will remain light, however, little to no moisture return is expected over the next day or so. The influence of the ridge to our west will keep skies generally sunny today, making for a pleasant Tuesday with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the 80s. Southeast winds will remain light through Tuesday night, but just enough to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than tonight, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026 A warming trend will continue into Wednesday as the upper ridge over the Rockies builds slowly east towards the Plains. An isolated storm or two will be possible across Northwest Texas Wednesday evening as a weak disturbance moves around the northeast flank of the ridge, but our CWA will likely see little more than the remnant high clouds. Warm and dry weather will continue through the end of the workweek as the ridge axis moves overhead, with lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday through Friday. The only difference in the latter half of the week will be an uptick in wind velocities associated with a storm system moving through the Northern Plains. This system will drag the dryline east to the Big Country, which may become a focus for storm development Thursday evening, but probabilities of any convection overcoming the cap this far east are slim. A shortwave trough will then lift northeast from the Desert Southwest into the Plains on Saturday. Similar to Thursday, it may kick off a dryline storm or two Saturday evening, but convection would again have to overcome a stout cap to make it into North Texas. A larger scale trough will sweep through the Central Plains late this weekend into the early part of next week, likely bringing unsettled weather during the Sunday through next Tuesday window. More details regarding timing and intensity should become known as better resolution data in received later this week, but there should be at least a low-end chance of severe weather given the pattern and time of year. Warm weather will otherwise continue until our next cold front, which will accompany the late weekend/early next week system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026 Calm to light and variable winds overnight will become light southeast Tuesday morning, and remain as such through Tuesday night. Minor visibility reductions may occur around daybreak this morning due to recent rain, light wind and clear skies, but better opportunities for fog will occur in rural locations. That said, will need to keep an eye on METAR and satellite trends overnight. Any drops to MVFR or IFR visibility would likely be brief, and return to VFR 14-16Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 82 60 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 80 57 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 83 59 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 82 60 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 84 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 82 58 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 83 60 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 82 60 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 83 58 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30