796
FXUS64 KFWD 160502
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1202 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms are expected on Monday mainly east
  of I-35.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected this week with low rain
  chances returning Wednesday night through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Tuesday/

Slightly cooler but humid conditions persist across North and
Central Texas tonight with ample high cloud cover streaming across
the region. The complex of showers/storms that moved through North
and Central TX on Sunday effectively used up most of the
instability across the region and with only slight recovery
expected overnight, we`ll likely remain precipitation free into
early Monday morning. The only exception may be our far southeast
counties where a trailing outflow boundary may serve as a focus
for a few isolated showers. Near calm winds may lead to some
patchy fog in some outlying areas. If the high clouds can thin
enough, then we may see a little more area impacted by some fog.

By Monday morning, mid level ridging will try to expand eastward
just a bit. We`ll still remain within modest northerly flow
aloft, but the best combination of any forcing for ascent and
moisture will be across our far east and southeast counties where
we`ll have 20% PoPs. Otherwise, it`ll be quite a bit warmer on
Monday with highs climbing into the low/mid 90s and heat indices
topping out near 103 degrees. The ridging will expand a little
farther east on Tuesday with increasing south/southwest flow above
the surface. This will support temperatures in the mid 90s, but
deeper mixing may allow dewpoints to fall through the afternoon
keeping heat indices in check a bit. No precipitation is expected
on Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/
Update:
Little has changed to the long-term forecast. Hot and humid
conditions are expected Monday afternoon through at least midweek
with a few locations likely approaching Heat Advisory criteria
across North Texas. Low rain chances will return to the forecast
toward the middle of the week with daily seabreeze activity across
our far southeast each afternoon into next weekend.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Onward/

Seasonably warm conditions are expected throughout the upcoming
week. Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low
90s on a daily basis with warm/muggy mornings in the 70s. A
shortwave trough will usher a weak cold front towards the region
late Wednesday, resulting in the return of low rain chances
Wednesday night into Thursday. Additional low rain chances will
linger into the weekend as seabreeze activity makes a run at our
southern zones on a daily basis.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR prevail at this hour beneath a canopy of thick high clouds
with nearly calm winds at the surface. A light south/southwest
flow will become established later tonight and generally remain
less than 10 kt through the day Monday. There is a low chance for
some MVFR cigs in the morning and we`ll handle this with a few
hours of TEMPO BKN016 at the major airports. Otherwise, the only
immediate concern will be some potential for MVFR vis in areas of
fog through the early morning. This will mainly be an issue for
outlying areas, but we could see some minor reductions at AFW/FTW
and at ACT through mid morning.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  94  77  94  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
Waco                70  92  75  93  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
Paris               71  89  74  90  75 /  10  20   0   0   0
Denton              69  94  75  95  76 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            70  92  75  93  76 /   5  10   0   0   0
Dallas              71  95  77  95  77 /   5  10   5   0   0
Terrell             69  90  74  91  75 /  10  20   5   0   0
Corsicana           70  91  75  92  76 /   5  20   5   0   0
Temple              67  93  74  94  75 /  10  10   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       68  96  74  97  76 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$