Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
925 FXUS64 KFWD 130618 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1218 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue through this weekend, with highs in the 80s expected. - Showers and thunderstorm chances return late Monday onward, with the highest chances near the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1215 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Persistent mid/upper riding will keep a dry forecast over North and Central Texas through the short-term forecast period and beyond. Moist boundary-layer southerly flow will bring the potential for low stratus and fog to parts of the region, especially Central Texas, Thursday and Friday mornings. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s through the end of the work week. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1215 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 A dry and warm forecast will remain the theme through the weekend as upper riding maintains its hold over the Southern Plains. Afternoon high temperatures may approach 90 degrees at a few locations west of I-35 by Saturday and Sunday. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may start to materialize west of Highway 281 once again over the weekend as temperatures rise to well above-normal and surface dewpoints mix into the low 50s during the afternoon hours. The early week disturbance mentioned in previous forecast continues to trend slower, weaker, and more northward, thus lowering rain chances across East Texas to less than 20% late Monday into Tuesday. Extended guidance continues to highlight the development of a deep, broadscale trough over the western CONUS by the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe next week. The evolution of this system would increase rain chances toward the latter half of the work week across much of the region, therefore we have included widespread 40-50% rain chances in the forecast for the Wednesday- Thursday period next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 We will maintain a more optimistic, VFR forecast through the TAF period for the D10 terminals. Latest MOS and NBM guidance continues to highlight <25% probability for MVFR cigs and vsbys in the 12Z-16Z timeframe over the Metroplex. Most recent high- resolution guidance has also backed off on the potential for low stratus and patchy BR/FG within the Metroplex Thursday morning, so we will opt to keep it out of the TAF for now. Future AMDs may be needed later in the night if conditions look more conducive to the development of MVFR cigs and vsby. A few hour period of low cigs and vsbys at KACT is more likely (40% chance), so we will continue the several hour TEMPO group of MVFR stratus Thursday morning. Otherwise, expect south-southeast surface winds generally below 10 kts through the overnight and into Thursday morning. Conditions will rapidly improve after 16Z-17Z Thursday with VFR and south winds at 12-15 kts gusting to 20 kts prevailing through the remainder of the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 57 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 79 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 74 54 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 75 52 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 76 55 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 77 58 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 56 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 79 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 80 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 80 52 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Langfeld LONG TERM....Langfeld AVIATION...Langfeld