Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
915 FXUS64 KFWD 021047 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 547 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - 20-40% storm coverage is forecast today and Wednesday. A few storms could produce strong gusty winds and heavy rain, but widespread severe weather is not expected. - Better rain chances arrive areawide Friday into Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 539 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026 Only some minor tweaks to afternoon storm chances are needed based on latest radar imagery and short term guidance. A well defined outflow boundary is pushing south through Oklahoma this morning and should cross the Red River later this morning. Meanwhile, our frontal boundary approaching from the northeast will become better defined through late morning setting the stage for convective development around or shortly after midday. As these boundaries push south and west convection should increase in coverage particularly south of I-20 into the evening hours. We`ve raised PoPs in this area through the late afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings from some of the short term guidance also show a profile supportive of severe downburst winds, assuming we can warm up into the mid 90s. This may not happen along and north of I-20 if the cooler outflow pushes south quickly, but areas to the south and west of the Metroplex would be favorable for a few instances of severe wind gusts. Dunn && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Wednesday) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026 Today will be another warm day as upper level ridging continues to keep afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Minute weaknesses in the ridge overtop of the region will allow for diurnally-driven chances for showers and storms this afternoon and evening, though more nebulous forcing will keep the overall coverage scattered in nature. Most locations would have the potential to see isolated development, however, remnant outflow boundaries from early morning convection and an incoming backdoor cold front will provide the better locations for convective development later today. With the aforementioned lack of good ascent, the severe threat will remain low. However, we cannot rule out an isolated severe wind gust this afternoon. More confidently, a few storms may become strong with gusty, erratic winds, brief heavy rain, and lightning the main hazards. As the backdoor front moves from NE to SW, so will the showers and storms. Coverage will begin to wane with the loss of daytime heating, with minimal to maybe isolated convection expected overnight into Wednesday morning across our southwest. Another day with afternoon pop up convection in portions of the region is likely as continued disturbances meander across the ridge, Coverage will be a bit more isolated in nature and more confined to western portions of North and Central Texas, so not everyone will see a shower or storm on Wednesday. Once again, gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain will be the main hazards through midweek. The up-sloping easterly winds from the backdoor cold front will aid in keeping temperatures a bit more mild for the beginning of June, with highs peaking in the 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026 Daily chances for showers and storms will persist through the rest of the week into the weekend, with with an uptick in coverage expected particularly from Friday to Sunday. This increase in coverage is due to a deeper closed low over the Desert Southwest eventually being enveloped into the overall upper flow and swinging to the northeast, shunting the upper level ridge further east. The overall severe threat through the rest of the long term forecast remains low, though a few stronger storms could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. PWATS of 1.5-2" will continue to promote efficient rainfall producers, so a low flooding threat could emerge in locations that see multiple periods of heavy rain. Going into early next week, isolated to scattered rain chances will likely continue. As for temperatures, while those milder 80s are expected to remain into the weekend, the return of southerly winds will pump temperatures back up into the 90s by early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026 VFR prevails across the region at this hour but a well defined outflow boundary is pushing south through Oklahoma and should be a focus for convective development around or shortly after midday. A weak frontal boundary is also approaching from the northeast and will enhance low level convergence for thunderstorm development. We`ll continue with a VCTS from 19Z through 23Z at the major airports. One limiting factor preventing a TEMPO at this time is the speed at which the outflow to the north is moving into the region. If this continues, we may see the bulk of the convection develop just south of the airports. However, if the boundary slows down and it appears more likely that TS will develop across the Metroplex, then a TEMPO will be added at the 15Z issuance. Otherwise, light/var winds this morning will become easterly around mid morning and persist into tonight. There is some low potential for MVFR cigs early Wednesday morning, but this will be addressed later today. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 75 89 72 / 30 20 10 10 Waco 93 72 89 70 / 40 40 20 30 Paris 90 70 87 69 / 20 10 0 10 Denton 92 73 88 70 / 20 10 10 10 McKinney 92 72 88 70 / 20 10 0 10 Dallas 95 75 89 73 / 30 20 10 10 Terrell 93 72 88 70 / 30 20 10 10 Corsicana 93 73 88 71 / 30 30 10 20 Temple 91 72 88 71 / 30 40 30 40 Mineral Wells 92 71 88 68 / 30 20 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Dunn