Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
105 FXUS64 KFWD 121029 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 529 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions will persist into the weekend with an increasing threat for wildfire activity across the region. - Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Little change to the pattern is expected through the end of the week with an expanding mid level ridge in control of the weather across the Southern Plains. Skies are generally cloud free tonight with temperatures expected to fall into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Both Wednesday and Thursday will feature hot and dry conditions with highs in the 99-102 degree range, but a persistent surface low over the Central Plains in the lee of the Rockies will help maintain a fairly tight pressure gradient across North Texas. This will result in breezy southerly winds aided by deep vertical mixing through the afternoon. As a result, afternoon dewpoints are likely to fall into the low/mid 60s both days keeping heat index values from getting too out of hand. Given the breezy conditions and marginal heat index values, we`ll forego issuing additional heat advisories at this time. Of greater concern will be the increasing wildfire potential through the week. Afternoon RH values will consistently drop to between 20-30% with southerly winds gusting to near 30 mph at times. With a lack of any meaningful rainfall over the last few weeks, the threat for larger grassland/wildfire activity is expected to increase into early next week. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Mid level heights will continue to increase by Friday into early next week which should correspond to a slight increase in surface temperatures during this time. While it still appears that deep mixing will allow dewpoints to fall appreciably during peak heating, a weak disturbance will spread into South Texas around the western periphery of the ridge Saturday into Sunday. This will likely result in some pooling of moisture across southeast Texas that may eventually spread into our southeastern/eastern counties over the weekend. If this does occur, then heat indices would likely climb well above 105 degrees requiring additional heat headlines. Otherwise, the main story will continue to be the threat for wildfire activity across the region as continued drying and persistent low afternoon humidity will support an uptick in fire starts. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with increasing southerly winds around 15-20 kt. Some higher gusts will be possible this afternoon and later tonight. Patchy MVFR cigs in Central TX will stay to the southeast of the major airports this morning. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 101 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 101 78 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 102 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 101 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 102 80 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 101 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 101 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 102 76 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$