Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
944 FXUS64 KFWD 151729 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather will continue through Friday. - A cold front will bring a chance of storms on Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown Saturday night and Sunday. - Warm and dry weather returns early next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ Much of the short-term period will remain under the influence of a persistent, unseasonably strong upper ridge of high pressure atop the region. Thus, expect warm afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s across North and Central Texas this afternoon beneath mostly sunny skies. Light east-northeast boundary layer winds and subtle cool air advection will keep temperatures this afternoon from getting too out of control. Later tonight, a deep, upper-level low will shift off the West Coast toward the Four Corners region. This change in the upper- level pattern will draw a preceding shortwave northward out of Mexico and over the state of Texas during the day Thursday. Little change in the observable weather conditions are expected Thursday with the passage of this wave save a notable increase in mid-level cloud cover late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night along and east of I-35. Although southeast low-level flow is expected to re- establish by mid-morning Thursday, delayed moisture return will keep the chance for any measurable precipitation through Thursday night near zero. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday and Beyond/ North and Central Texas will remain in between troughs on Friday with little notable weather expected minus a very low chance for some afternoon seabreeze activity across the Brazos Valley. A strengthening pressure gradient in the lee of the Rockies will increase winds out of the south by Friday afternoon beginning a period of slightly more robust moisture return ahead of the main trough axis still lingering out over the Desert Southwest. South winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph would cause some concern for elevated fire weather conditions Friday afternoon, but higher humidity should temper the overall threat. However, some localized areas of elevated fire weather conditions may still arise west of Highway 281 where afternoon RH will likely fall below 35%. By Saturday, the aforementioned upper trough should be transitioning out from over the Intercontinental Mountain West and over the Central Plains. An attendant cold front should extend across northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle by midday Saturday with a dryline extending south of a surface low over parts of the Big Country. These surface features will likely provide a focus for convective development later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, however the greatest synoptic-scale support and lift will reside across the Arklatex region and points northeastward into the Ozarks. Thunderstorm coverage across our forecast area will likely remain more isolated to scattered with the greatest rain chances (30-50%) constrained to locations east of I-35 in the best deep moisture/lift overlap. Unfortunately, most locations west of I-35 will likely miss out on any measurable rainfall during this event. Overall rainfall still remains uncertain with a wide range of solutions in the ensemble forecast. The NBM 25th-75th %tile spread ranges from a dry forecast to 0.75" east of I-35 through Sunday morning. Favorable shear and instability profiles may overlap for several hours Saturday evening into Saturday night northeast of the Metroplex, and we will need to monitor the potential for a couple strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. But again, it is uncertain how much storm coverage will materialize late Saturday across our forecast area and with medium-range guidance trending toward a slower, more northward-progressing system, widespread rain chances are looking less probable. Behind the frontal passage, breezy north winds will usher in a much drier and more seasonably cool airmass to end the weekend. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along and north of I-20 Sunday afternoon and the low to mid 80s across Central Texas. Sunday and Monday morning will be notably cooler with widespread lows in the 50s. This period of normal, mid-October temperatures will be short-lived with the upper ridge quickly filling back in by Monday afternoon. There is some signal that the upper-level pattern will become more active and progressive by midweek next week, so stay tuned! Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all North and Central Texas terminals. Light easterly winds generally below 10 kts will prevail through the remainder of today and into tonight with south-southeasterly flow returning by mid-morning Thursday. Langfeld && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 63 87 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 5 Waco 87 60 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 Paris 86 58 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 86 58 85 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 5 McKinney 87 58 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 5 Dallas 88 63 87 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 87 58 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 88 61 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 Temple 88 59 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 89 58 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$