Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
974 FXUS64 KFWD 281803 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 103 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers (50-70%) and isolated thunderstorms (10-20%) are expected across the region Thursday through Saturday. - Confidence is increasing in another storm system bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 ...Wednesday and Wednesday Night... As of this morning, the upper-level flow regime over the southern Great Plains has begun to shift to southwesterly flow with troughing over the western CONUS and a subtle yet amplifying ridge over the Southeast. Embedded in the longwave trough that extends down into the Baja of Mexico, the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance will move towards the northeastward across Northern Mexico. In advance of this disturbance, south/southeasterly flow at the surface has resulted in substantial low-level moisture return across the region (the primary driver behind cloud cover and areas of dense fog this morning). Despite the scattered clouds that should remain throughout the afternoon, temperatures will once again climb above average with highs in the low and mid-80s. Weak isentropic lift just above the surface based warm-advection regime will provide subtle forcing for ascent across portions of Central Texas this afternoon (particularly in the 800-700 hPa layer). With ample moisture in this layer of the atmosphere as well, this weak forcing for ascent may be sufficient enough for very isolated rain showers to develop this afternoon during peak diurnal heating (10-20% chance). Any rain showers that do develop are expected to remain south of I-20 where low-level moisture is greatest. Tonight, expect increasing cloud cover and continued southerly flow at the surface to result in slightly warmer temperatures than last night with lows generally in the mid and upper-60s. ...Thursday... By tomorrow morning, the primary vort max from the remnants of Tropical Storm Victor is expected to eject off the Mexican Plateau into southwestern Texas. Synoptic scale forcing for ascent associated with mid-level PVA will result in increasing cloud cover throughout the day (expanding from the southwest to the northeast). Rain chances Thursday morning will generally be confined to areas west of I-35 and south of I-20 (30-50% coverage). However, as the primary upper-level disturbance approaches the area from the southwest, rain coverage is expected to increase with scattered rain showers (50-70% coverage) generally west of the I-35 corridor, and more isolated showers (20-40% coverage) east of the I-35 corridor. MUCAPE will also range from 200-800 J/kg (increasing with western extent) which will be sufficient for isolated non-severe thunderstorms embedded in the more widespread rain showers across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 ...Thursday Night through Sunday... Thursday night into Friday, the shortwave axis is expected to pivot northeastward through North Texas into Oklahoma. With synoptic scale forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance remaining across the region, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist through this time period. Rain will be most widespread (60-80% coverage) along and west of the US-281 corridor, becoming more isolated with eastward extent (rain chances 15-30% east of the I-35 corridor). Similar to Thursday, instability will be on the marginal side limiting the thunderstorm potential to isolated (10-20%) non-severe thunderstorms embedded in the more widespread rain. Temperatures will be much closer to normal (highs largely remaining in the low to mid-70s on Friday) due to the widespread cloud cover. Highs may struggle to warm out of the 60s west of US-281 due to more persistent rain throughout the day. On the contrary, afternoon highs will approach 80 degrees across much of East Texas and the Brazos Valley where cloud cover should be more scattered. By this weekend, the upper-level shortwave will continue moving east into the Mississippi River Valley. Scattered showers (40-50% coverage) will linger in the wake of this disturbance throughout the day on Saturday. By the latter half of this weekend, increasing subsidence attributed to an amplifying ridge building over the southern Plains will greatly reduce rain chances. Though a stray shower (10-15% chance) can`t be ruled out north of I-20 and west of I-35, the vast majority of those across North and Central Texas will remain dry on Sunday. Temperatures will also return to above normal by the end of this weekend with Sunday highs in the upper-70s and the lower-80s. ...Monday and Tuesday... By the beginning of next week, attention turns to potentially the strongest storm system of the fall so far. Medium range guidance remains in agreement that an upper-level trough will amplify over the Rockies as it approaches the Great Plains. Strong divergence aloft and forcing for ascent will result in surface cyclogenesis in the central High Plains. This storm system is expected to quickly strengthen with most ensemble members (across both the ECMWF Ens and GEFs) resolving surface pressure 990-1002 hPa by Monday afternoon. Monday night into Tuesday, medium-range guidance diverges in terms of the evolution of this storm system. The GEFS keeps a slightly weaker low-pressure (998-1005 hPa) and tracks the system further south across Kansas/Oklahoma. The ECMWF Ens resolves a stronger low (990-995 hPa) and maintains a track further north across Kansas/Nebraska. There are also substantial differences in the timing of the cold front once it approaches North/Central Texas. More progressive guidance (such as the GFS) bring the cold front through the region Monday evening/night. Slower guidance such as the ECMWF depicts a cold front that may not clear the region until later Tuesday night. Regardless of the timing of the cold front, medium range guidance is in alignment resolving scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front as it moves through North and Central Texas. Instability in advance of this cold front looks marginal at this time, and as such severe weather seems unlikely. Nonetheless, a narrow corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE may materialize just ahead of the front depending on its timing through the region which may result in a few strong thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours (either Monday or Tuesday depending on how quickly this system moves towards the east). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Scattered cigs 015-030 will continue to lift throughout the day with any sites currently at MVFR expected to quickly give way to VFR within the next 1-2 hours. Surface flow will also remain out of the S/SSE at 5-12 knots at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period. After 15Z Thursday, BKN MVFR cigs are expected to build across much of Central Texas, but should remain west of TAF sites through the end of this TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 82 66 75 / 0 50 20 30 Waco 65 79 63 75 / 10 50 20 30 Paris 63 84 64 78 / 0 20 0 20 Denton 63 82 62 73 / 0 50 20 40 McKinney 63 82 63 75 / 0 40 10 30 Dallas 67 83 67 76 / 0 50 20 30 Terrell 63 83 64 77 / 0 40 10 20 Corsicana 65 81 64 77 / 10 40 20 20 Temple 65 79 63 75 / 10 30 20 40 Mineral Wells 62 79 61 71 / 0 60 40 70 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah