Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
191 FXUS64 KFWD 290555 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1255 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will affect parts of North and East Texas through this morning, with additional isolated development possible in Central Texas this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms will periodically impact the area through the entire duration of Labor Day weekend. While severe weather is unlikely, those with outdoor plans should stay aware of the potential for heavy rainfall, flooding, gusty winds, and lightning. - Following slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend, highs will return to the upper 80s and 90s next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ As of midnight, a batch of steadily decaying elevated convection was moving ESE across parts of North Texas. This activity is rooted above the frontal inversion, with the surface front having progressed south of I-20 into Central Texas. As this round of convection eventually wanes during the early morning hours, new development is expected to take place mainly to our northeast along the 850mb frontal surface which is draped from southern Oklahoma southeastward through the ArkLaTex. While most of this activity will remain north and east of the CWA, a few hours of thunderstorm activity can be expected across our northeastern zones roughly northeast of a Sherman to Canton line from the predawn hours through the morning. Locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding will be the main concerns. Most of North Texas will see overcast skies through a majority of the daytime as post-frontal stratus remains anchored across the area, reinforced by favorable ENE winds. This anomalous occurrence for late August should be capable of holding high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s for areas near and north of I-20 this afternoon. With the front eventually stalling across Central Texas by mid afternoon, areas south of the front will still climb into the mid 90s, and will also see isolated/scattered convective development near the surface frontal zone during peak heating. While organized severe weather is unlikely, a few strong storms capable of downburst winds and brief heavy rainfall can be expected. This activity will shift southward out of the CWA by the evening, with at least a few hours of tranquil weather tonight. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday Onward/ Labor Day weekend is likely to be impacted by additional rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity, which could even result in a washout of outdoor plans at times. A thunderstorm complex from West Texas may approach the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday morning as it advances ESE along the nearly stationary frontal zone which will still be draped through the CWA. The parent disturbance within NW flow aloft responsible for this complex will also serve to strengthen low-level flow and warm advection, and this should lead to additional new development out ahead of any such complex around or just before sunrise. Coverage will be maximized through the morning hours on Saturday, with convection having a tendency to advance slowly southeastward during the daytime. Once again, an abundance of cloud cover should be capable of holding many areas to the low/mid 80s for high temperatures, including much of Central Texas which could be impacted by precipitation through much of the day. Additional convection is expected to blossom along the frontal boundary from the Big Country eastward along the stationary frontal zone beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday morning. This will pose a risk for flooding, with some higher res guidance indicating localized rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches across some of our western zones. Scattered thunderstorms then will be possible anywhere within the CWA through the rest of the day, with placement dictated by residual outflow boundaries from preceding convection. A similar setup can be expected heading into Monday which will allow storm chances to persist through the remainder of the holiday weekend. Heavy rain and flooding will remain the primary concern, with strong/gusty outflow winds also possible with stronger cells. Despite a lack of organized severe weather potential, those with outdoor plans (especially boaters and campers) will want to remain aware of the weather for the entirety of the holiday weekend. By Tuesday or Wednesday, a stronger mid-level shortwave digging southward within increasingly meridional flow will send another front through the forecast area, perhaps accompanied by additional scattered thunderstorms. While most ensemble members favor a drier post-frontal solution through the midweek period, a smaller percentage of guidance does linger ascent behind the frontal boundary through the midweek period which could result in additional low precip chances. For now, the forecast will remain dry during this extended period in favor of the ensemble means. Despite the passage of this cold front, less cloud cover and precipitation will limit its effect on ambient temperatures, and the late summer sun will still allow highs to reach the upper 80s and 90s through the midweek period. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06z TAFs/ As of 06z, thunderstorms were affecting the northern portion of D10. While most of these will miss the terminals themselves, impacts due to nearby TSRA can be expected for another 1-2 hours before this activity progresses east and eventually wanes later tonight. In addition, a brief northwest wind shift at 15-20 kts is accompanying this activity, and this may exist through 07-08z before winds return to their prevailing ENE direction. Following this convection, IFR cigs are expected to fill in quickly which will prevail into the morning. There is a chance that heights may even briefly drop to LIFR, although this potential is too low to advertise in the TAFs at this time. Only meager improvement to MVFR is expected through the daytime, with perhaps a very brief window of scattering to VFR by late afternoon or evening before IFR cigs fill back in tonight. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the TAF sites Saturday morning near the very end of the valid period, and will address this with SHRA in the extended DFW TAF for now. For Waco, the TAF site will remain positioned south of the frontal zone through this morning with a southerly wind before a shift to ENE occurs later today. The front may cause isolated thunderstorms to develop nearby this afternoon, roughly after 19z, before this activity moves off to the south. VFR should prevail, with a chance for lower cigs arriving just beyond the current forecast period. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 81 72 83 72 / 50 20 30 70 50 Waco 78 94 74 86 72 / 20 40 30 60 60 Paris 68 74 68 81 68 / 80 60 20 40 30 Denton 72 82 70 82 69 / 50 20 30 70 50 McKinney 72 78 70 82 69 / 50 20 30 60 40 Dallas 75 81 73 83 73 / 50 20 30 70 50 Terrell 73 81 71 83 70 / 50 30 30 60 40 Corsicana 76 87 74 84 72 / 30 40 40 70 50 Temple 76 94 74 87 72 / 10 30 20 60 50 Mineral Wells 73 85 71 85 69 / 50 10 40 80 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$