Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
290 FXUS64 KFWD 051033 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 533 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will bring scattered showers and storms to North Texas this evening, and to Central Texas on Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms are possible near and east of Interstate 35. - A cooler and mostly dry end to the workweek is forecast with temperatures near or below normal on Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Moist southerly low-level flow will continue to resupply our warm sector with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s during the next 12 hours. The arrival of low-level moisture will be depicted by a developing swath of low stratus which will overspread the eastern half of the CWA by sunrise. Partial clearing can be expected during the daytime, while veering southwesterly low-level flow preceding the arrival of a cold front allows high temperatures to reach the mid 80s to lower 90s. This boundary will drift into North Texas by mid afternoon, and should serve as an impetus for isolated/scattered convective development during the late afternoon and evening period. However, as has been discussed the past few days, there are a few factors mitigating the expected magnitude of the severe weather potential today. The primary factor will be a sizable capping inversion, which may struggle to become sufficiently eroded due to a lack of synoptic scale ascent, most of which is lagging behind the frontal arrival time by as much as 12 hours. Another will be storm motions and shear vectors oriented largely parallel to the initiating boundary which will likely result in some degree of updraft interference and a much lower potential for storms to maintain discrete structure. The aforementioned veering low-level flow in immediate vicinity of the boundary will also result in mostly straight hodographs, which will result in quick splitting of any initial supercell structures that may attempt to become established. We`ll continue to advertise a very conditional severe threat from late afternoon into the evening mainly from the DFW Metroplex to the north and east where initiation attempts are the most plausible along the front. However, a null event is a very realistic possibility given these aforementioned inhibitors to convective development and strength. Any storms that do manage to develop will have access to sufficient speed shear and instability to support severe hail/wind hazards. The overnight period into early Wednesday morning is likely to be fairly tranquil with the idea that any convection Tuesday evening will dissipate after sunset with loss of heating. The slow-moving front will continue to make slow southward progress into Central Texas overnight, and the boundary will once again be the main feature of interest for Wednesday`s forecast. Additional convective attempts will likely occur along the front Wednesday afternoon while it is draped somewhere through Central Texas, although its precise location will not be know for another 24 hours. Some guidance is rather eager in pushing this boundary southward out of the forecast area as early as mid afternoon which would mean a quick end to storm chances within the CWA, while coarser global guidance wants to maintain its stationary position for several hours allowing storm chances to persist into the evening. Many of the same inhibiting factors for convective development and strength will be in place again Wednesday afternoon in Central Texas as Tuesday, and this once again may significantly limit convective coverage and intensity barring some substantial change to the track of an upper level impulse or more pronounced forced ascent occurring along the boundary. The prefrontal warm sector will once again be capable of supporting severe convection should any be able to initiate. Most activity should be exiting the area to the southeast and/or diminishing in intensity Wednesday evening. With North Texas being in the post- frontal airmass through the daytime, highs will only reach the low/mid 70s, while the warm sector in Central Texas still experiences highs up to 90. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Thunderstorms should be exiting the area to the southeast on Wednesday evening with a cooler and dry airmass building in behind the southward advancing cold front. Thursday morning`s lows should be able to fall into the 50s and even upper 40s as a result, with afternoon highs as much as 10-15 degrees below normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s. A secondary shortwave pivoting through large-scale parent troughing could aid with isentropic ascent atop the cool surface airmass, perhaps allowing for rain chances to continue across Central Texas during the daytime Thursday. However, the majority of the area is expected to be dry through the remainder of the workweek while near or below normal temperatures continue. With building heights and a return to warm southerly flow by the weekend, temperatures will quickly return to above normal on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 80s and 90s. Indications are that another frontal intrusion may occur late next weekend offering additional storm chances, but there is still significant variability among guidance as it pertains to this scenario. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 MVFR stratus has overspread Central Texas and is skirting the eastern Metroplex airports of KDAL, KDFW, and KGKY as of 1030z. Tempo groups advertising reduced cigs will be included for these TAF sites for the next couple of hours, but this cloud deck should get shunted eastward fairly quickly within veering southwesterly low-level flow. Later this afternoon, a cold front will sag into North Texas which will cause gusty southerly surface winds to diminish in speed while veering increasingly westerly. Isolated convective attempts are expected along the front, and these should be most prevalent east/northeast of the D10 TAF sites. Will include a brief VCTS around 00z for the northeastern airports of KDAL and KDFW with the idea that a thunderstorm could briefly exist near the range rings at one or both of these airports. The slow-moving front will result in a light north wind shift at the Metroplex terminals after 00z, with post-frontal MVFR stratus developing later in the evening which will persist into Wednesday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 62 76 54 / 20 20 10 10 Waco 87 71 83 58 / 0 10 50 20 Paris 84 61 72 52 / 20 40 30 10 Denton 89 57 74 50 / 20 20 0 10 McKinney 89 60 74 52 / 20 30 10 10 Dallas 90 63 78 56 / 20 20 20 10 Terrell 85 66 77 54 / 20 20 30 20 Corsicana 84 70 82 59 / 0 20 60 20 Temple 85 72 85 58 / 0 10 50 20 Mineral Wells 92 57 77 49 / 0 10 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley