214
FXUS64 KFWD 242024
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
224 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread hazardous travel impacts due to wintry precipitation
  will continue across North and Central Texas today and worsen
  tonight as another wintry mix spreads across the region.
  Although precipitation will end Sunday, travel impacts will
  continue through Monday and Tuesday.

- Strong winds along with ice on tree limbs and power lines could
  cause sporadic power outages today and Sunday.

- Life-threatening cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero at
  times through Tuesday morning will result in hypothermia and
  frostbite if precautions are not taken.

- A long duration of below-freezing temperatures will continue
  through Tuesday which will increase the risk of broken pipes
  and water damage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Latest surface observations indicate the freezing line has just
about exited our southern and eastern counties into the HGX/SHV
areas. Temperatures have fallen significantly behind the Arctic
front with current readings ranging from the low 30s in our
southeast to the low 10s across our northwest. Although the first
main round of wintry precipitation ended this morning, radar
shows precip already increasing again this afternoon across North
and Central Texas. This is likely occurring due to increasing
large scale lift ahead of the approaching upper low over northern
Mexico. Activity this afternoon will likely be scattered and
contain a mix of all winter precip types given the mostly light
nature of the activity and the very cold Arctic air in place from
the surface to 850mb.

As this system opens up into a trough and moves closer to and
across our region this evening and overnight, the second main
round of widespread winter weather will spread over the entire
area. Given a continued large, deep warm nose aloft between
850-700mb on forecast soundings, the predominate precip type this
evening is anticipated to be sleet across North Texas and
freezing rain across Central Texas - both of which will likely be
heavy at times. A few thunderstorms are also possible tonight
given some weak MUCAPE and mid level lapse rates near 7 C/km. As
colder temperatures aloft arrive in association with the main
upper trough, the warm nose is expected to erode after midnight
across North Texas allowing for a transition to snow prior to
precip ending Sunday morning. Some of the snow could also be
heavy at times, especially from I-20 northward. Across Central
Texas, freezing rain is anticipated to mix with then changeover
to sleet before precip ends Sunday morning, with little chance for
snow to occur.

After this second round exits the forecast area Sunday morning,
some scattered snow showers will likely linger into the afternoon
per CAMs such as the HRRR, with potential additional light
snowfall. In addition, favorable northwest surface winds,
saturated and weakly unstable low level thermodynamic profiles,
and still-warm lake water could allow for lake effect snow near
and downwind of the larger North Texas lakes.

Updated snow and sleet totals for the remainder of the event are
generally unchanged from previous forecasts, with around 1 inch
of sleet/snow possible in Central Texas and 1 to 5 inches of
sleet/snow across North Texas. Ice amounts have been lowered for
North Texas as sleet/snow is expected to be the main precip types,
but another one tenth of an inch of ice could occur. For Central
Texas, around one quarter to one half inch of ice is still
possible per guidance, with the highest ice amounts most likely
in the Ice Storm Warning over our East Texas counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

After precip ends Sunday, a dry but very cold week ahead is
anticipated for our CWA. With most areas ice and snow covered,
guidance still appears to be too warm with temperatures from
Sunday night through Monday night, and have undercut NBM numbers.
Both nights look to have lows in the single digits both
above/below zero, with highs on Monday only in the 20s. Monday
night could be the coldest of the two nights given a 1036mb
surface high over the region, light winds, and clear skies all
allowing for good radiation cooling. Although sunshine on Monday
will help melt some of the ice/snow on roads, it will likely take
until Tuesday before substantial improvement occurs when
temperatures finally rise above freezing after roughly 80 hours
below. Continued cold nights in the 10s/20s with daytimes only in
the 30s/40s are anticipated the rest of the week as we remain
entrenched in deep northerly flow and reinforcing surges of Arctic
air. 12Z guidance has backed off the potential of another winter
system next weekend, although will keep some low pops in for
Friday just in case of model flip flopping.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

No significant deviations to the previous TAF forecast for this
issuance. We`re in a relative lull in precipitation across the
region, although there are a few showers approaching the Metroplex
at this hour. This should mainly be -FZRA and -PL as there
continues to be a substantial warm nose above the surface. We`ll
maintain -FZRAPL through the afternoon, expecting that there will
be some periods where it`s dry.

Heavier intensity precipitation will start after dark and should
primarily be sleet. We`ll continue with moderate sleet from 02Z
through the overnight, however there is some concern that we could
see a quicker transition to snow if lift is stronger than
anticipated. If that occurs, then snow could be heavy at times.
For now, we`ll continue to monitor this and carry a snow/sleet mix
after 10Z with a transition to all snow by 14Z. Precipitation
should start to taper off around midday Sunday.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    13  22   9  28 / 100  30   0   0
Waco                16  24  11  27 / 100  20   0   0
Paris               15  21   6  25 / 100  60  10   0
Denton               8  21   3  28 / 100  40   0   0
McKinney            11  21   7  27 / 100  40   0   0
Dallas              14  23  10  27 / 100  30   0   0
Terrell             14  24   9  27 / 100  40   0   0
Corsicana           18  26  12  30 / 100  30   0   0
Temple              16  28  11  30 / 100  20   0   0
Mineral Wells        9  22   3  29 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>121-123-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ122-135-147-148-
162.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Dunn