Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
471 FXUS64 KFWD 131840 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 140 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today with hot and dry weather expected to continue into next week. - Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 The weather story remains a broken record, as high pressure aloft continues to dominate the Southern Plains states. Temperatures across much of North Central Texas - particularly along and north of I-20 - will exceed 100 degrees yet again, with highest readings occurring west of US 281 where the lowest afternoon dewpoints will reside. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for roughly the northern half of the forecast area due to continued heat indices in excess of 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory will likely be issued for Friday for much of the same area, mainly north of I-20. Elevated fire weather concerns are also a key issue, particularly this afternoon, as deep mixing transports drier air to the surface. As a result, late afternoon relative humidities will decrease to around 25% in many areas west of I-35. A persistent trough in the lee of the rockies will create an enhanced pressure gradient across the region through this evening, promoting southerly winds on the order of 15-20 mph, gusting at times to near 30 mph. These conditions, coupled with fuels that are steadily curing under the relentless heat, will create an increased potential for new grassfire starts, and enhanced fire weather behavior. Continued care must be taken to avoid the ignition of fuels across North Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Virtually no changes are anticpated to the persistent hot, dry pattern which grips North Central Texas. The sprawling upper ridge over the Southern Plains and Southeast States will gradually build westward to encompass the Southern Rockies by early next week, with the center of this ridge transiting our area over the weekend. Daily highs at or above 100 degrees will be the rule across most of the area, with afternoon heat indices spiking into the 105-110 degree range on many days through next week. Additional heat advisories will likely be required. Similarly, fire weather concerns will linger, as afternoon relative humidities drop below 30% across much of Western North Texas, coupled with gusty afternoon winds and ever drying fuels. There is no immediate sign of meaningful rain relief through at least next weekend, and likely several days beyond. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through tonight and Friday. The persistent lee trough over eastern Colorado and New Mexico will promote continued southerly winds at speeds averaging 12-18 knots, gusting this afternoon to near 25 knots at times. These winds - and particularly the gustiness - will diminish after 02z, but speeds of 12=15 knots will likely prevail across D10 through 12z Friday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 76 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 77 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 78 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 80 102 81 101 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 76 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 76 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 75 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Bradshaw