Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
593 FXUS64 KFWD 142245 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 545 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures and rain-free weather will prevail through the end the week, returning early next week after a minor cooldown on Sunday. - A cold front will bring a chance of storms to the region Saturday, with the highest chances near/east of I-35 (30-50%). && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025/ /Through Wednesday/ Similar conditions to the previous several days will persist today and tomorrow as ridging remains in control of the Southern Plains. The continued warm and dry conditions will feature highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, along with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dewpoints will mix out into the upper 40s/low 50s tomorrow afternoon, dropping relative humidity down to ~20-30% for portions of Central Texas and the Big Country. Wind speeds, however, should remain less than 10 mph which will temper any more notable fire weather concerns. Gordon && .LONG TERM... /Issued 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ In the extended forecast, a bit of a pattern change is finally on the horizon as a cold front and chance for showers and storms returns late Friday and into Saturday. A deep upper trough will be approaching the Intermountain West by Wednesday night, which will in turn flatten the ridge and shift it farther east. This system will take a northeastward trajectory, ejecting into the Central/Northern Plains. Southerly low level flow will become re- established late week, which will start to gradually advect more moisture into North and Central Texas. A shortwave will also approach from the S/SW with the near meridional flow overhead TX, but will only act to bring cloud cover back to the region late this week with no precipitation expected. Greater uncertainty exists with the evolution of the system heading into the weekend, with some guidance depicting a trailing (slightly slower) shortwave that brings stronger, more pronounced upper lift, compared to the majority of the solutions that show the faster moving trough with upper level lift displaced. The former solution (less likely) would result in higher coverage of showers and storms, even with the average/unimpressive moisture return that`s anticipated. The most likely solution is scattered showers and storms (30-50%) developing ahead/along the front primarily east of I-35 Saturday afternoon into the evening. With no meaningful precip over the past couple of weeks, it will likely be a frustrating evening for those that unfortunately miss out on any precip. For the luckier ones, latest ensemble guidance still isn`t very impressive, with average amounts of nil to about a tenth of an inch. The most likely precipitation (25th-75th Percentiles) currently ranges from 0" to about 0.75". MLCAPE > 1500 J/kg and shear around 35-40 kts in the current guidance will support a low end severe threat to monitor as we continue through the week. Behind the front, northerly winds won`t last long, with a brief shot of cooler air making its way to Texas before winds become southerly again by Sunday night. Sunday will be a nicer day overall with drier air and highs in the low to mid 80s, anywhere from 5 to almost 10 degrees cooler than Friday. Ridging then quickly builds back in by Monday with a rebound of temperatures back into the mid 80s/low 90s to kick off the third week of October. Another signal for precip exists in both deterministic and ensemble guidance sometime mid to late week (beyond Day 8), but not unexpectedly, this remains quite uncertain this far out. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Generally easterly winds (070-110) under 10 knots and VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period. Though weak, winds will oscillate between periods of ENE flow (070-080) and ESE flow (100-110) over the next 24-36 hours, particularly across the DFW Metroplex. Darrah && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 88 63 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 60 88 60 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 60 86 58 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 60 86 57 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 60 87 58 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 65 88 63 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 59 88 58 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 62 89 61 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 60 88 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 59 89 57 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$