Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
025 FXUS64 KFWD 171154 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 554 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures will continue today and Tuesday. Record to near record highs are expected at both DFW and Waco this afternoon, then again tomorrow afternoon. - Thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through early Friday. Heavy rain will create a threat for flooding during this period. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 136 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Record to near-record warmth will remain the main weather story through Tuesday as a deepening surface low across the Central Plains strengthens. This will establish downsloping southwesterly winds across North and Central Texas, warming the air parcels into anomalous high levels. Forecast highs today (mid 80s) fall just shy of record values at both DFW (87F) and Waco (89F), but still represent near record heat for mid-November. On Tuesday, similar warming processes persist with highs in the mid 80s, however, daily records are a few degrees lower. For DFW, the record is 83F while Waco`s record stands at 84F. Forecast highs for both sites are expected to be 86F and 82F respectively. A gradual increase in moisture is expected through Tuesday afternoon as low-level winds remain slightly out of the southwest. Although a progressive increase in clouds is expected, moisture and forcing for ascent will be insufficient for rain to occur prior to Tuesday night. Our attention turns to the West Coast as another mid-latitude trough begins to deepen across Southern California. As it shifts eastward, it will initiate a shift to more backed surface winds across the region, enhancing Gulf moisture return late Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 136 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A more active weather pattern unfolds mid-week as the western US trough ejects eastward. Guidance continues to exhibit timing differences -- particularly between the faster ENS and the slower GEFS. The majority of the ensemble members side with the slightly more progressive ENS, which in turn impacts how much rainfall North and Central Texas receives the latter half of the week. Regardless of the timing discrepancies, confidence is high that the highest rain chances will arrive on Thursday with widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. Prior to the main rain event on Thursday, Wednesday`s rain chances will be associated with a leading shortwave that will increase forcing across the region. With PWATs well above the 90th percentile, any shower or storm will be an efficient rain producer. The overall severe weather threat will remain low on Wednesday given MLCAPE values will remain below 1000 J/Kg with 20-25kts of deep layer shear. If a more robust storm is able to develop, the main concern would be gusty downburst winds. Thursday will be the more impactful day associated with this system. Rapid pressure falls will maximize large-scale ascent over the region. This will likely lead to the development of thunderstorm clusters that will migrate from west to east. With deep-layer shear reaching it`s maximum strength by the afternoon, a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The main element in question will be just how much instability is in place given ample cloud cover. As of now, instability appears lower on Thursday compared to Wednesday with most models suggesting less than 800 J/kg. Nonetheless, gusty winds will once again be of concern with a low but non-zero probability of damaging winds. The main concern for Thursday will be the heavy rain potential that will increase the flooding threat. A gradual tapering of total expected rainfall has been occurring over the several previous forecast cycles as the more progressive ENS is becoming the most favored solution. Rainfall amounts will most likely range between 2-3", with a few isolated locations approaching 4". Rain will end from west to east early Friday morning as a cold front wraps around the departing area of low pressure centered in northern Oklahoma. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front, leading to temperatures in the mid 60s Saturday and Sunday. Low rain chances will persist over the weekend as the next system beings to move closer to North and Central Texas from the west. There is still a large degree of uncertainty with the weekend system, therefore, make sure to come back over the next few days if you have outdoor plans this upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 MVFR cigs are now ongoing across Central Texas and will continue to impact KACT through the rest of the morning. The low cloud cover has also continued to advance northward and is now in the D10 airspace, mostly east of I-35. Given recent trends in the northward advancement, an MVFR TEMPO has been included at DAL, GKY and DFW airports through 15-16z. The expectation is for the low clouds to stop their northwestward advancement as winds just above the surface remain out of the west/southwest. Ceiling improvements will commence later this morning with VFR skies prevailing through the evening hours. Another round of low clouds will arrive this evening with the greatest impacts expected at KACT. For North Texas, the eastern TAF sites are the most likely to experience the MVFR cigs, with the western sites likely remaining in VFR. Tomorrow`s round of MVFR will gradually lift through the late morning hours, leaving behind another VFR afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 67 86 66 / 0 10 0 0 Waco 85 69 82 67 / 0 10 10 10 Paris 81 68 84 64 / 10 10 0 0 Denton 86 64 86 61 / 0 10 0 10 McKinney 84 67 86 63 / 0 10 0 0 Dallas 86 69 87 67 / 0 10 0 0 Terrell 84 68 85 64 / 0 10 10 0 Corsicana 86 70 85 67 / 0 10 10 0 Temple 86 67 84 65 / 0 10 10 10 Mineral Wells 92 62 90 62 / 0 0 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez