Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
813 FXUS64 KFWD 282231 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 531 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM Wednesday across much of North and Central Texas where heat index readings could reach up to 109. - Hot and rain-free weather will persist through the work week with little relief in sight, and additional Heat Advisories or possibly Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 No significant changes to the ongoing forecast in the short term, as our robust upper level ridge remains parked over New Mexico and far West Texas. Strong subsidence on the eastern flank of this high will continue to produce mostly clear skies and hot conditions through Wednesday. Some cirrus cloudiness from convective debris over Kansas and northern Oklahoma may slip into the northernmost counties later today and this evening. This cloudiness will do little in the way of mitigating our hot daytime temps today. Highs both today and Wednesday will rise above the century mark across most of the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area, with heat indices easily reaching the 105-110 degree range both days. As a result, the Heat Advisory has been extended for the same geographical area through Wednesday. Daytime highs and heat indices across the southwest counties will remain just a touch less warm, with maxima remaining below 100 for the most part today and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Ensemble mean model solutions depict the center of the upper level ridge remaining stationary over New Mexico Thursday and Friday, with the eastern flank of the ridge dominating North Central Texas. This will facilitate continued hot conditions, with daytime highs over 100 degrees persisting in many locations. By Saturday, however, a subtle pattern shift will ensue, with the upper ridge retrograding to the greater Arizona region. This will promote an evolution to a northwesterly flow regime over North Texas, with a pronounced shortwave trough dropping southward out of the Midwest, into the Tennessee Valley by early Monday. As this shortwave brushes the eastern edge of our region, a weak cold front will sweep southward into North Texas on Saturday. In the wake of this boundary, northerly flow and slightly cooler air will infiltrate the area. Highs ahead of the front will breach the century mark Saturday afternoon in most areas along and south of I-20, with slightly cooler readings expected closer to the Red River. Uniformally "less hot" temperatures (mostly mid to upper 90s) will ensue areawide on Sunday and Monday, as the northwesterly upper level flow regime lingers. No precipitation is anticipated with this brief pattern shift, and indeed the ongoing dry pattern will likely persist through next week, along with a return to 100-plus high temperatures in most areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 South flow (160-200) at 5-12 knots and VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 102 82 102 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 77 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 79 102 80 102 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 79 101 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 82 102 82 103 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 78 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 75 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Darrah