Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
220 FXUS64 KFWD 081916 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 216 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms should continue through the afternoon. There is a very low threat of small to marginally severe hail. - The severe threat increases this evening when a line of storms moves across the Red River. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts across eastern North Texas. - The severe threat returns Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 A pretty active pattern is setting up across North and Central Texas over the next couple days, with a couple severe threats plaguing the region. An early-morning round of showers and storms is exiting northeast Texas now, with another round of showers and storms developing over Western Central Texas. The storms in the area this afternoon are being triggered by a mid-level minor shortwave trough with the effective inflow layer based around 2 km. Above this layer, there is sufficient instability for thunderstorm development, but the shear profiles are relatively weak and not overly favorable for severe weather. A slight backing in the hodograph between 2-6 km may allow for left splitting or anticyclonic updrafts to produce marginally severe hail, but this would be a relatively infrequent occurrence. Anyway, the cluster of storms should move ENE through the afternoon and dissipate or move out of our area around sunset. Our attention will then shift to the north where a cold front is forecast to stall over Central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along the front between 3-4 pm well to our north in Oklahoma. Strong forcing along the front and shear profiles that favor cold pool mergers should allow the initial supercells to form into a line of storms, or at least a couple "linearesque" clusters of storms, with a strong outflow boundary. This boundary is forecast to move across the Red River overnight around midnight and continue moving ESE through the early-morning hours. The morning CAMs latched onto a solution that blew a well-organized line of strong to severe wind storms through the entire Metroplex. The latest CAM guidance has backed off, showing just a few clusters of storms moving into eastern North Texas. I`m more inclined to favor the latter. In situations like this where the source of lift gets detached from nocturnal storms sustained by their own outflow, you need strong inflow (low-level flow) into the storms in order for them to maintain their intensity. Tonight, the low-level flow will not be the best...about 15-20 kts of S-SW flow. It`s not terrible, but not the best for severe weather. It should be enough to sustain isolated to scattered showers/storms through the night, but the flow will become heavily veered after midnight and have to overcome strong convective inhibition. After the storms move east/dissipate Saturday morning, the remnant outflow boundary will wash out and be replaced by a warm and moist advective regime locally. Expect tomorrow to be several degrees warmer than today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values a few degrees higher than that. These values are pretty typical for this time of the year. Most of the forecast area will be dry Saturday as any substantive forcing remains displaced well to our north. Another round of strong to severe storms is forecast to develop over Oklahoma (far western OK tomorrow). Similar to tonight, the storms should merge into a line of storms and make a run for our Red River counties in the early- morning hours. The flow patterns at this time should keep most of the storms outside of our forecast area, but there is still a low (20%) chance a few storms brush along the Red River late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 A low pressure system attached to a larger cold front should move through all of North and Central Texas Sunday (Mother`s Day!) into Monday. Very strong forcing with this system should allow for widespread showers and storms to develop with just about everyone in the forecast area forecast to receive at least some rain. There are differences in the guidance regarding low pressure placement and timing, but the guidance is in decent agreement of the entire system moving through the region late this weekend. The parameter space is favorable for large hail and damaging wind gusts ahead of the front, and elevated hail behind the front as well. Median rain amounts with Sunday`s system alone should average between 0.5-1" for a vast swath of the forecast area with a few spots receiving upwards of 2, maybe 3 inches. While flooding is not our main message for Sunday, it is a concern, particularly for flood-prone or low-lying areas. Finer details regarding the frontal placement and timing will be consequential, so it will be important to keep up with the forecast this weekend. After this system departs the region early next week, pleasant weather is forecast for a couple days. Stronger ridging aloft is forecast to build into West Texas in the middle to late parts of next week and bring temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 A cluster of storms moving toward the D10 terminals early this afternoon has necessitated a re-intrudiction of VCTS to the TAFs. These storms are moving ENE at a pretty good clip, so they should just move into and out of D10 within a couple hours. A clearing trend is forecast after the storms move out, allowing VFR to prevail late in the afternoon into the evening. Our attention will then shift north to a cluster of storms that is expected to develop in Oklahoma later today. A line of storms should move across the Red River and encroach on D10 around midnight. The morning guidance was much more aggressive with this system than the recent guidance. Given the uncertainty, we only introduced VCTS in the TAFs for this activity for now. Either way, a northerly wind shift/outflow boundary is more likely than not at this point. We`ll continue to assess this for future TAFs. Lower ceilings are expected to build in a few hours after the storms/outflow pass, and remain in-place for most of the morning. The winds tomorrow will be a challenge, so the current TAFs attempt to capture the bigger trends versus the smaller-scale details. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening along and north of US-380. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 87 69 85 / 30 0 10 80 Waco 66 85 68 88 / 20 10 0 50 Paris 61 83 64 78 / 40 10 20 90 Denton 63 86 68 83 / 30 0 10 80 McKinney 63 86 68 82 / 40 10 10 80 Dallas 66 87 69 85 / 30 0 10 80 Terrell 64 84 67 85 / 40 10 10 80 Corsicana 66 86 69 88 / 30 10 0 60 Temple 66 86 68 88 / 20 10 0 30 Mineral Wells 62 87 66 85 / 20 0 0 70 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...Bonnette