Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
077 FXUS64 KFWD 011746 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1146 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - The next storm system is forecast to sweep across the region Monday night into Tuesday. There is a low risk of severe weather, but details will continue to be refined over the weekend. - Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Tuesday after the showers and storms move east. && .UPDATE... Issued at 533 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas east of I-35, where widespread 1/4 mile visibility will lead to poor driving conditions. The immediate Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex is largely fog-free due to slightly warmer surface temperatures. Patchy dense fog will also be possible along and east of I-35, however, expect the patchy dense fog to be transient compared to areas under the Dense Fog Advisory. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 139 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 The main concern this early morning will be the development of low clouds and fog within the moist boundary layer left behind yesterday`s system. Light winds and pockets of clearing will favor increasing coverage of fog towards daybreak, with the greatest potential for widespread fog mainly across East and Central Texas. Conditions will improve fairly quickly during the late morning as mixing strengthens beneath a transient mid-level ridge. Cloud cover should scatter from west to east, leaving a dry and considerably warmer afternoon. Highs will reach the lower 80s across much of North and Central Texas, with light winds becoming increasingly southerly during the afternoon. Tonight will remain quiet, however, as a gradual pattern change will be taking place ahead of the next storm system slated to arrive on Monday. A deep trough moving through the Southwest will induce strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the central Plains. The resulting pressure falls will increase southerly flow across Texas overnight while Gulf moisture continues to deepen northward. Lows will remain mild, generally in the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 139 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A much more dynamic pattern will develop Monday as the western trough ejects into the Central and Southern Plains. Surface cyclogenesis across Kansas will strengthen the pressure gradient across Texas, resulting in sustained south winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 to 40 mph through much of the day. Strong warm and moist advection will push surface dewpoints into the 60s while temperatures climb into the lower and middle 80s. Most of North and Central Texas should remain dry through at least early afternoon, with the initial convective development favored farther west of our area, along the cold front. The thermodynamic environment will become increasingly favorable for strong to severe storms Monday evening as stronger ascent spreads east from the southern Rockies. A 40-50 kt LLJ will maintain moisture transport while modest warm surface temperatures yield roughly 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Although mid- level lapse rates will not be particularly steep, weak inhibition should allow storms to develop as the front arrives. Thunderstorm initiation should occur just west/northwest of our region with a mix of supercells or scattered storm clusters. As the storms spread east, storms will quickly transition to a linear mode capable of strong to damaging winds, quick spin up tornadoes and isolated instances of large hail. The overall severe weather threat will be greatest across North Texas, but strong storms may extend farther south as the front moves through the region. The front is slated to move through North Texas early Tuesday, progressing southward into Central Texas by the afternoon. The severe weather threat will quickly shift east of our region as the system continues it eastward trajectory A drier air mass will follow in the wake of the cold front. Strong pressure rises and deep mixing will produce northwest winds of 15-20 mph with occasional gusts to near 30 mph Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the 70s despite increasing sunshine. High pressure will continue to dominate through the rest of the week, leading to a stretch of quiet and seasonable fall weather. Afternoon highs will generally remain in the lower to middle 70s with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Another upper-level disturbance may traverse the central Plains late in the week, however, current guidance keeps the better moisture and precipitation well north of our region. Dry and pleasant conditions are expected through the remainder of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 The majority of the dense fog has dissipated this morning as vsby/ceilings continue to improve. The ongoing low clouds will scatter out with VFR conditions (SCT-BKN around 4-5kft) expected the rest of the day. Winds will remain generally from the southeast less than 8 kts. Most of the overnight hours will remain quiet before we see another potential for low clouds Monday morning. Recent model guidance has trended less aggressive regarding widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby, keeping this activity more scattered. However, given the moist environment in place and the southerly flow becoming more established, our thinking is that some of the morning`s arrivals/departures could still be impacted between 12-16Z. Conditions will improve by mid/late morning with breezy southerly winds around 13-18 kts gusting to 20-25 kts possible. Looking ahead: a cluster/line of showers and storms will begin to develop over northwestern Texas late Monday afternoon and approach the I-35 corridor near/around 05-06Z Tuesday. There is a potential for a few strong to severe storms in addition to the lightning threat. Confidence in any development ahead of this line is low and/or is outside of this current TAF cycle. Trends will be monitored as new data arrives. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 85 64 75 / 0 10 90 10 Waco 65 85 65 77 / 0 0 90 50 Paris 62 84 65 76 / 0 20 90 40 Denton 63 85 60 75 / 0 20 90 10 McKinney 63 84 62 74 / 0 0 90 10 Dallas 67 86 65 76 / 0 0 90 20 Terrell 64 85 64 75 / 0 10 90 40 Corsicana 66 85 67 75 / 0 10 80 50 Temple 65 86 65 78 / 0 0 80 50 Mineral Wells 63 84 58 75 / 0 30 80 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Sanchez