Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
531 FXUS64 KFWD 051048 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 548 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms will occur today through Sunday with coverage peaking during the afternoon hours each day. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall can be expected with the strongest storms. - Warmer and predominantly rain-free weather will return for most of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A slow-moving upper low and increasing moisture content will contribute to active weather heading into the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the area today and Saturday. Rich Gulf moisture continues to arrive within southeasterly low- level flow ahead of an upper low presently centered over Chihuahua, Mexico. As this low steadily ejects northeastward during the next 36 hours, its attendant ascent will contribute to scattered convective activity across much of the region, with coverage maximized during peak heating due to aid from diurnal destabilization. The potential for severe weather is rather low both today and Saturday, but a few robust updrafts could certainly produce gusty outflow winds and small hail. The overall microburst potential will be mitigated by near/below normal temperatures and lower cloud bases, while hail potential will be reduced due to a single cell or multicellular storm mode with rotating updrafts being rather unlikely. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be of concern as PW values approach 2" at times, and this would be most likely with any cell training that may be able to occur. Even though convective coverage will be maximized during late afternoon and evening, the synoptic scale forcing present will allow for isolated convective activity to be sustained even during the overnight and early morning hours. This will especially be true on Saturday as the upper low center and strongest height falls move directly overhead. Those with outdoor events this weekend will certainly want to keep an eye on the radar and have an alternate plan available. Otherwise, the abundance of cloud cover through the short term forecast period will aid in holding high temperatures mostly in the mid 80s both today and Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The slow-moving upper low will be centered over Northwest Texas heading into Sunday, and this will serve as one final opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon as the last vestiges of its ascent impinge on the CWA. Activity is largely expected to end Sunday evening as the upper trough axis fully vacates the area to the northeast. In its wake, stout subsidence and mid-level height rises will overspread the area heading into early next week, and this will lead to a warmup to more summerlike temperatures while bringing an end to mentionable rain chances. Highs are forecast to return to near/above normal on Monday, and will mostly be in the mid and upper 90s through the entirety of next week as a 590+ dam ridge builds overhead. This could also be our first bout of 100+ degree heat index values this summer, and so messaging will begin to pivot from thunderstorm hazards to heat hazards through the extended portion of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Low cigs at MVFR heights remain anchored across the Metroplex this morning while IFR prevails at Waco. A brief window of IFR cigs is still possible at Metroplex airports through 14-15z, and will retain a Tempo group to advertise this potential. Warm advection is also contributing to a rapid uptick in showery activity as of 1030z, especially across eastern Metroplex airports, and VCSH will be included to begin the TAF period. Following a scattering to VFR later this morning, showers and thunderstorms will increase further as an upper low advances towards North Texas. Convective coverage will be scattered at 30-50%, and will maintain short VCSH/VCTS periods through the afternoon and early evening hours when this potential should be at its peak. Some precipitation could be maintained into tonight and early Saturday morning as lift from the low continues to spread overhead, and a return to MVFR/IFR cigs is likely between 06-12z Saturday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 72 85 72 / 40 50 70 70 Waco 85 71 84 72 / 50 50 60 60 Paris 83 71 82 71 / 50 30 70 80 Denton 86 71 84 71 / 30 50 70 70 McKinney 84 71 83 72 / 40 40 70 80 Dallas 88 73 86 73 / 40 50 70 70 Terrell 85 71 84 71 / 50 40 70 70 Corsicana 87 73 86 74 / 50 40 70 50 Temple 85 71 85 73 / 50 50 60 50 Mineral Wells 85 69 84 69 / 40 50 70 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley