Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
564 FXUS64 KFWD 061827 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 127 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will persist through the week with heat indices near 105 degrees each afternoon. - Isolated thunderstorms may develop across parts of our Red River and Central TX counties this afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Afternoon satellite imagery shows an expansive cumulus field across southeast TX into the Hill Country associated with a weak mid level disturbance. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing primarily across southeast TX but have expanded into our central TX counties over the last few hours. Coverage will continue to be about 20% through the afternoon with locally heavy rainfall and lightning being the main threats. This activity will wind down this evening with loss of daytime heating. Farther north, a weak frontal boundary is draped across the mid South into the Ozarks where convection has increased over the last several hours. Modest northerly flow around the eastern periphery of the mid level ridge should allow this boundary to sag south through the afternoon aided by convective outflow. A few thunderstorms may develop across the Arklatex and into our Red River counties late this afternoon and evening where we`ll have some 10-20% PoPs. Otherwise, any convective activity should wind down after dark with mostly clear skies tonight and continued well above normal temperatures. Ridging will expand a bit during the day Monday and we should see an overall decrease in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms across Central TX. The heat will continue though with highs at or just above 100 degrees. The current heat advisory will likely be extended into Monday based on forecast heat indices near or above 105 degrees. We`ll keep PoPs at 10% or less during the day Monday. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Mid level ridging will remain in place through the early part of the week with continued well above normal temperatures. A weak disturbance will round the periphery of the ridge mid week and should again result in an uptick in convection mainly across southeast TX. As we`re getting into the latter parts of summer into fall, the upper pattern is becoming a little more active across the Central and Northern Plains. As a result, we`ll see frontal boundaries sag a little farther south with time. A fairly stout shortwave spreads out of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes on Wednesday which will allow a front to move into Central Oklahoma late in the day. This boundary may serve as a focus for thunderstorm development into Thursday mainly to our north. We`ll have some low PoPs across our northern counties to account for this. Otherwise, there is a signal in the global models which suggests that the pattern will become more active by early next week which may bring some relief to the heat along with a slight uptick in rain chances. Dunn && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites through the period. Winds will veer from ESE to SSW through tonight, backing to SSE tomorrow in tandem with the diurnal oscillation. Expect fair weather cumulus of bases ~6 kft this afternoon, clearing with the loss of daytime heating tonight. Isolated showers have developed around 20 miles south of Waco as weak ascent lingers amidst an uncapped, moist airmass. Coverage is expected to remain south of the ACT terminal, precluding the inclusion of any VCSH at this time. Visible satellite imagery indicates a separate area of developing convection along a slowly moving stationary front draped across the Ozarks. This front is expected to stall north of the Red River, however convective trends and associated outflow will continue to be monitored. Dornsife && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 101 81 101 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 76 99 76 100 / 20 10 10 10 Denton 77 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 77 100 77 100 / 0 10 0 0 Dallas 81 101 81 102 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 76 100 77 100 / 0 10 0 10 Corsicana 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 75 95 76 100 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107- 118>123-133>135-146. && $$