Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
906 FXUS64 KFWD 070009 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 709 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North Texas where periodic showers and storms now into Sunday will result in localized heavy rain and flash flooding. - A few strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will continue this evening, with a low threat for additional strong storms overnight. - Warmer and rain-free weather will return for most of the upcoming week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees each afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 0701 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 No significant adjustments were made this evening, other than some changes to the PoPs based on ongoing storms and trends anticipated through the night. The current storms have had a fast enough storm motion to preclude significant flooding concerns at this time, but the additional showers and storms expected overnight are still likely to produce flooding issues in the Flood Watch area. Based on the latest guidance, the area of highest confidence for seeing any isolated totals of 6-8" exists roughly in areas immediately west and southwest of the DFW Metroplex, extending SW in the vicinity of HWY 67 into Comanche/Erath counties. Isolated flooding will still be a threat throughout the entire Watch area, especially in spots that have already received 1-2" this evening with pockets of 2.5-3" QPE. Otherwise, a low threat for these storms being strong with gusty winds will continue as well. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 The active pattern continues this afternoon for north Texas with ongoing rain showers mainly northeast of the Metroplex. The upper- level low driving this activity is located over northwest Texas with a dry slot moving in from the southwest. Most of the high clouds have cleared out due to the dry slot but this has allowed for plenty of heating to take place from the Metroplex westward. This, combined with being close to the upper low should lead to increased chances for strong storms to develop late this afternoon across the Big Country then moving into the the Metroplex overnight. Initially, storms will have the potential to produce some hail as they develop and move through the Big Country during peak heating time. Later this evening and overnight, storms should congeal and become heavy rain producers with the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms across the western and northwestern parts of the area. The HREF Mean rainfall totals show areas of 1 to 3 inches for most areas, but some corridors of heavier rainfall are looking more likely. The HREF LPMM shows localized higher total amounts of 6 to 8 inches through tomorrow morning. It is still uncertain where this corridor of heavier rainfall will set up, but areas northwest of a line from Dublin to Sherman can expect to see heavy rain overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will continue pushing eastward across the Metroplex tomorrow morning as the trough axis moves eastward. Although severe weather chances look low, storms could quickly produce amounts of around one inch for urban areas and lead to localized flooding. Rain chances should decrease tomorrow afternoon as the upper level low finally lifts northeastward towards Kansas City. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 The upper-level trough axis should exit the region and into the Midwest by Monday. In it`s wake, a subtropical ridge will build in across Texas and persist through much of next week. Rain chances will dry up during this time, but the tradeoff is much sunnier and hotter conditions are anticipated. Model consensus shows 500mb heights of 590dam centered over east Texas with 850mb temperatures of 17-20 deg C each day. There is a low to medium (20 to 50%) chance for surface high temperatures in the upper 90s. In addition, the humidity levels will still be rather high for much of next week with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This would lead to heat indices between 100-107 each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 0701 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 A line of thunderstorms continues shifting east through D10 this evening with AFW/FTW now clearing out. This round is unlikely to be the only impact from convection for the night, with an additional round of storms possible, although confidence is lower in overall coverage. After this TSRA moves through, a brief window of VCSH has been included in the TAF with this issuance to denote the break in thunder chances from ~02-05Z depending on the exact site. A PROB30 has been included from 05/08Z to capture the greatest timing potential for any direct impacts. Will monitor trends with a potential shift to a TEMPO group if confidence increases. Otherwise, MVFR cigs are forecast across D10 in the predawn hours through mid morning, but timing will likely need to be refined and assessed with the trends of the convection. South winds will become a bit breezy by mid to late morning with sustained speeds around 11-15 kts. For Waco, VCTS has been introduced 07/10Z, in line with the latest trends and model guidance, with confidence too low to mention any TSRA. Cigs around 08-11 kft will arrive in the predawn hours and gradually improve mid morning before scattering midday. South winds will be sustained at 10-14 kts through the day tomorrow. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 90 75 93 / 70 40 0 0 Waco 73 88 75 91 / 70 30 0 0 Paris 71 85 74 89 / 60 60 10 0 Denton 71 90 76 92 / 70 50 0 0 McKinney 72 88 75 91 / 70 50 0 0 Dallas 73 91 76 94 / 70 40 0 0 Terrell 71 88 74 92 / 60 40 0 0 Corsicana 73 89 75 93 / 60 40 0 0 Temple 73 89 75 91 / 50 30 0 10 Mineral Wells 69 91 75 94 / 80 40 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104- 115>119-129>134-141. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gordon LONG TERM....Kearney AVIATION...Gordon