Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
464 FXUS64 KFWD 021028 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 528 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today near and east of I-35 with rain chances of 10-20%. - High temperatures will return to the mid 80s to mid 90s the rest of the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Friday night through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 129 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025/ /Through Tonight/ Rain chances are beginning to draw to a close following an anomalously rainy end to August and start of September, but one last afternoon of rain chances exists today before a break during the midweek period. Persistent northwest flow aloft and modest height falls will continue to overspread the area, and this should allow for at least isolated shower and thunderstorm development mainly near/east of I-35 within the higher PW axis this afternoon. Coverage would only be around 10% and the vast majority of locations will stay dry, but this potential does warrant a mention in the public forecast. This activity would quickly wane during the evening hours. Otherwise, we`ll have to monitor for patchy fog development this morning, some of which may become dense on a very localized scale. This would be most likely though some of the river valleys in Central Texas, but shallow fog could develop just about anywhere in the presence of nearly calm winds and minimal dewpoint depressions. Later this morning, winds will become northerly as surface high pressure builds southward into the Central Plains. This northerly flow through the low levels will eventually usher in slightly drier air, but dewpoints will still be in the mid 60s to around 70 most of today before any noticeably drier air arrives. Temperatures will continue to moderate following a few days of below normal highs, and despite the onset of north winds, highs this afternoon will still climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 129 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025/ /Wednesday Onward/ Predominantly rain-free weather is forecast through the second half of the workweek while temperatures rebound to near or above normal as southerly winds resume. Deep troughing will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS during this time period, but energy from individual vort maxes pivoting through the longwave trough will remain displaced well to our northeast. This will tend to inhibit the southward progression of cold fronts through the Central Plains which will have a tendency to stall to our north through the late week period. The result should be a couple of hotter days with highs returning to the mid/upper 90s on Thursday/Friday with perhaps even a few triple digit readings as winds veer westerly ahead of these stalling fronts. Trends may change heading into the upcoming weekend as a vague split flow regime replaces the amplified western CONUS ridge, allowing a frontal zone to dip southward into North Texas late Friday or Saturday. This would lead to renewed rain chances as well as cooler temperatures due to a combination of cooler post- frontal air and an increase in daytime cloud cover. In addition, there is a chance that a fetch of additional moisture from a tropical system in the east Pacific becomes established later in the weekend or early next week, and this could increase rain chances/amounts markedly. There is still much uncertainty with this potential, but it will be the primary forecast feature to monitor through the extended period. Highs should mostly be in the 80s from Sunday into early next week. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ Light north winds have become established across North and Central Texas as of 1030z and should prevail through the entire forecast period. Very sporadic mist/fog has reduced visibilities at a few airports overnight, and there is a small chance for category reductions during the next couple of hours, particularly at Waco where a Tempo group has been maintained. Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm should be able to develop across parts of North and East Texas this afternoon, and a brief period of VCSH will be indicated for this low chance of rain at the D10 TAF sites. VFR will prevail into Wednesday morning. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 70 90 70 94 / 20 5 0 0 0 Waco 89 69 91 66 95 / 10 0 0 0 0 Paris 85 66 86 66 90 / 20 5 0 5 0 Denton 88 66 90 66 93 / 20 5 0 5 0 McKinney 88 66 89 66 92 / 20 5 0 0 0 Dallas 89 71 91 70 95 / 20 5 0 0 0 Terrell 88 67 89 66 92 / 20 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 90 70 91 67 95 / 20 5 0 0 0 Temple 90 68 92 65 96 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 90 66 91 65 95 / 10 0 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$