Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
397 FXUS64 KFWD 292231 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 531 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of North and Central Texas through Thursday. Heat index values between 105-108 can be expected. - There is a low chance for showers/storms on Saturday as a weak cold front moves into North Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Hot conditions will continue through Thursday as North Texas remains under the influence of strong mid level ridging. Some thin high clouds have filtered sun across the region a bit, but only minor impacts to afternoon high temperatures are expected. Highs will top out near 100 degrees today and climb a few degrees on Thursday to between 100-102 degrees. Deep afternoon mixing will allow dewpoints to fall into the mid 60s keeping heat index values generally around 105 degrees. An uptick in RH values along and north of I-20 on Thursday will push heat indices to near 108 degrees in a few locations. An axis of moisture is present on the western periphery of a surface high over the eastern CONUS. This moisture is present on the GOES-PW imagery extending from Louisiana northwest into eastern Oklahoma. Some higher moisture content across the Arklatex could result in a few isolated showers this afternoon and again Thursday. PoPs in North Texas will remain around 5%. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Heat will continue through the end of the week with Friday likely being the hottest day over the next 7 days. With the ridge axis shifting westward by Friday, increasing northerly flow will develop through the Central Plains allowing a weak cold front to slide southward. This front will approach the Red River Friday evening with weak compressional warming adding to the already hot temperatures. This should send highs upward into the 102-105 degree range. Some moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will also add to the discomfort sending heat indices up near 110 degrees. Heat Advisories or Extreme Heat Warnings will likely be needed/expanded for Friday afternoon. Otherwise, the boundary will slide south of I-20 during the day Saturday with weak northerly winds and slightly cooler air. Highs should top out in the mid to upper 90s. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the frontal boundary during the afternoon on Saturday. While widespread rainfall isn`t expected across the region, any storms that develop could have some potential for strong downburst winds. Drier air will continue to spread south into the region Sunday with highs in the mid/upper 90s into early next week. Other than the low rain chances along the front on Saturday, no significant rain chances are expected into next week. Dunn && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 VFR conditions and southerly flow (160-200) at 7-11 knots will prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 101 80 104 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 76 98 76 99 / 0 10 0 0 Denton 78 101 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 77 100 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 101 81 104 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 76 100 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 78 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 75 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 74 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 117>123-133>135-145-146. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ116-131-132-144- 147-148-158>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM... AVIATION...Darrah