Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
743 FXUS64 KFWD 311047 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 547 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and warm weather continues through Monday. Low rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday (10-20% coverage). - Scattered storms return to the forecast area-wide Thursday through Saturday (30-50% coverage). && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Mid level ridging will keep the forecast warm and dry for Sunday into Sunday night with southerly winds 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 90s. With a dryline well to our west Sunday afternoon and the best deep layer moisture displaced to our east, any scattered storm activity will be well removed from North Texas. Some passing high clouds are expected mainly this morning, but mostly sunny skies will prevail this afternoon resulting in high temperatures 5-7 degrees above normal, but well shy of record breaking. Quiet weather continues Sunday night with mostly clear skies and lows in the mid 70s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Mid level ridging will continue to be positioned over North Texas on Monday with another warm and dry day expected. Highs will again top out in the mid 90s with little chance for rainfall. This ridge will begin to weaken a bit on Tuesday as it becomes pinched between troughing to the east and an approaching weak upstream trough spreading out of northwest Mexico. As low and mid level flow becomes more easterly, better moisture will be able to work into the region and we could see a few scattered storms mainly in our southeast counties Tuesday afternoon. These low rain chances will continue into Wednesday mainly west of I-35 as the aforementioned upper trough spreads out of Mexico. This upper disturbance will be slow to move out of the area, slowly traversing the western half of the state into the Southern Plains through next weekend. This will promote steadily increasing rain chances Thursday through Saturday with some potential for a little more organized activity as mid level flow strengthens around the base and eastern periphery of the trough. As has been the case over the last couple of weeks, convection should remain scattered with PoPs increasing to 30-50% by the end of the week. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with south winds 10-15 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected today or tonight. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 94 74 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 93 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 95 75 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 94 75 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 96 77 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 95 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 95 74 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 93 72 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 96 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$