Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
538 FXUS64 KFWD 240545 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather and mostly dry conditions will continue into early next week. - A change in the weather pattern is expected by late next week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and at least low rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Unseasonably warm and rain-free weather will prevail through the weekend as anomalously strong heights remain anchored overhead. The low-level moisture axis will remain well west of the CWA, influenced by deep Four Corners troughing that has brought numerous days of rainfall to portions of AZ/NM. A cirrus plume associated with this feature will make a steady eastward expansion later this weekend, resulting in cloudier skies which may be sufficient to shave a few degrees off of temperatures on Sunday. Highs will still remain about 5-10 degrees above normal through the short term period, mainly in the 80s. Light southeast winds and modest humidity will result in a pleasant weekend of weather overall for outdoor events. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 By Monday, the strong upper ridge axis over the Central and Southern Plains will gradually be eroded by a series of ejecting shortwaves rippling through deep western CONUS troughing. This will allow for greater moisture content to return to the area during the proceeding couple of days, while shortwave ascent supports disorganized scattered convection across portions of West Texas and the Big Country. Some of this activity may be able to encroach on our western zones on Tuesday where low PoPs will be advertised. Otherwise, the breakdown of the upper ridge along with increased cloud cover should keep temperatures slightly closer to normal, mostly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. There is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding the late week forecast and the expected pattern shift, and this will continue to have significant implications on the extended forecast from Thursday into next weekend. Overall, the synoptic pattern should become quite a bit more active and progressive, while a warm advection regime is likely to prevail locally through the end of the workweek. This will favor continued above normal temperatures through the end of the month before rain chances and a frontal passage can occur likely in the Day 7-9 time frame. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday with passing cirrus at FL250. Winds will remain southeasterly at 5-10 kt. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 84 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 83 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 83 57 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 83 57 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 85 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 84 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 84 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 86 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 84 57 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley