Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
246 FXUS64 KFWD 301039 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly quiet and warm weather is expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures and low rain chances (~10-20% across the northwest). - Scattered storms return to the forecast area-wide Tuesday through Friday of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026 A period of relatively quiet weather will continue through the weekend as weak shortwave ridging is in the process of traversing the Southern Plains. Convection that developed earlier along a dryline in West Texas has pushed into southwest Oklahoma but is quickly losing its intensity as it encounters increasing inhibition. The rest of the overnight should be warm and quiet with a steady stream of high clouds across the region. The ridge axis will slide a little farther east during the day Saturday as a shortwave currently over the Intermountain West ejects into the Central Plains. As a result, a surface low will deepen over western Kansas this afternoon with a dryline pushing into northwest Texas during peak heating. While large scale forcing for ascent will be largely removed from our area, mesoscale forcing along the dryline should be sufficient for a few storms to develop during the late afternoon/evening when capping is weakest. This activity should largely remain across western Oklahoma, but a few isolated storms could develop farther south across northwest Texas. We`ll maintain some very low PoPs across our far northwest counties this afternoon/evening, but most areas will remain dry. Westerly flow aloft and warming 850 mb temps should lead to a warm day across North Texas with highs several degrees above normal in the low to mid 90s. Any ongoing convection across the northwest should quickly come to an end prior to midnight with a warm and quiet night expected Saturday night. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Above normal temperatures will continue Sunday into early next week with readings in the mid 90s as mid level ridging expands from the northern Gulf into the Southern Plains. The ridging will be weak though featuring weak easterly flow through 600 mb which will allow PW values to steadily climb through Tuesday. Scattered storms should develop across southeast Texas on Monday afternoon and may spread inland impacting our far southeastern counties, but slightly better rain chances will arrive Tuesday through Thursday across all of North and Central Texas. Coverage each day will still only be about 20-30% driven mainly by strong diurnal heating. By the end of the week an upstream trough will begin to spread into West Texas with the stronger ridging being shunted eastward. This will likely result in a slight uptick in rain chances Friday into next weekend. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Mid and high cloud cover will continue to stream across the region today with cigs around 15,000 ft but any convective activity should remain off to the northwest of the major airports this afternoon and evening. We`ll maintain one line VFR TAFs through the period with south winds around 15 kt. Other than the higher cloud cover, no significant aviation concerns are expected at this time. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 92 73 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 91 74 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 92 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 92 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 94 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 91 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 93 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 92 70 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 91 71 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$