Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
463 FXUS64 KFWD 281050 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 550 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday. - Isolated showers and storms (20% chance) are possible near and south of I-20 today. - Higher rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures are expected from late Thursday through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 A warm/moist advection regime will remain in place today, sending a swath of low stratus and perhaps even some fog into parts of Central Texas later this morning. While zonal flow will prevail aloft devoid of any meaningful ascent, warm/moist advection should be sufficient to result in isolated coverage of showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm mainly south of I-20 during the daytime today. Coverage is likely to only be around 20% or less. Increasing cloud cover may shave a couple degrees off of afternoon highs, but they will still be soundly above normal in the upper 70s and lower 80s. It will also be increasingly and unseasonably humid as surface dewpoints climb into the 60s later today. The onset of subtle mid-level shortwave ridging should largely eliminate rain chances from this evening into Thursday morning before our next chance for rain begins Thursday afternoon/evening. An unseasonably warm/humid airmass will remain in place while upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS, allowing a strengthening subtropical jet streak to impinge on the area. Widespread mid/high cloud cover should begin streaming into the western half of the area by Thursday afternoon, with showers becoming increasingly likely late in the day. PoPs will be capped at roughly 30% through the daytime before the peak rain chances arrive in the long term forecast period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 Remnants of a Pacific tropical system will phase with broad troughing already in place heading into Friday, and this will lead to rain chances to end the workweek and begin the weekend. In comparison to previous forecasts, overall rain chances and expected amounts have both decreased slightly, with the trajectory of this system trending increasingly north/northwest of the forecast area. Areas near/west of I-35 will experience scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on an intermittent basis from Thursday night through Saturday as this system gradually ejects into the Central Plains, but coverage of measurable rainfall may be much more scant east of the I-35 corridor. Either way, this system`s presence will make for a mostly cloudy and therefore slightly cooler start to the weekend with highs in the mid/upper 70s. An overall lack of instability should keep occurrences of thunder rather scarce, and this system will only really consist of beneficial rainfall for the lucky locations that manage to receive some. Most of this activity should be on a downward trend by Saturday evening, keeping the majority of Halloween evening activities unaffected. A much more potent storm system is still on track to take hold of the central CONUS by early next week. Following a likely rain- free Sunday, this rapidly deepening system could send a cold front through the forecast area sometime Monday or early Tuesday, which would be accompanied by additional chances for showers and storms. The finer details of this system will become clearer in the next few days, but at a minimum, a decent fall frontal passage is looking increasingly likely during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 MVFR stratus has surged northward during the past couple of hours, and is now expected to encroach on D10 airports for at least a couple of hours this morning. A short Tempo group has been introduced to include cigs near 2 kft, with uncertainty in the longevity of these conditions. For Waco, IFR cig heights will be possible for the next couple of hours, but should lift to MVFR heights fairly quickly after daybreak. Lifting/scattering to VFR at all airports is expected by mid to late morning. While a few rain showers are possible mainly in Central Texas this afternoon, the expected coverage is too low to warrant any precip mention in the TAFs at this time. A south/southeast wind around 10 kt will prevail through the duration of the forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 66 83 66 / 10 10 10 20 Waco 83 64 82 63 / 20 10 20 20 Paris 83 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 82 63 83 62 / 10 10 10 20 McKinney 81 63 83 63 / 10 10 0 10 Dallas 83 67 84 66 / 10 10 10 20 Terrell 82 63 84 63 / 10 10 0 10 Corsicana 82 64 83 65 / 20 10 10 20 Temple 84 64 82 63 / 30 10 20 20 Mineral Wells 82 62 82 61 / 10 10 30 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley