Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
716 FXUS64 KFWD 071040 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 540 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North Texas. Localized heavy rain and flash flooding are likely overnight into Sunday. - In addition to the flooding potential, a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail are possible through the early morning hours. - Warmer and rain-free weather will return for most of the upcoming week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees each afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Potentially significant flash flooding remains the primary concern through the next ~12 hours as a slow-moving upper low and near record PW values combine to support very heavy rainfall. Overnight satellite imagery depicts a strong upper low over the TX Panhandle and western Oklahoma which continues to eject northeastward. It`s strong ascent is interacting with anomalous Gulf moisture with PW values near or exceeding 2", and the resultant widespread convective activity with tropical-like thermal profiles is capable of very heavy rainfall on the order of 2-3" per hour. Flooding issues will be exacerbated by slow storm motions and the tendency for cells to train in a SW-NE fashion. While there is still some uncertainty as to where the epicenter of the rainfall maximum and flooding impacts will be, recent high- res guidance including HREF PMM QPF has been targeting locations roughly along and just south of the I-20 corridor and near/west of I-35 through early this morning. Areas in this vicinity should have the highest potential to experience the localized totals of 6-8" that have been advertised in the ongoing Flood Watch. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur overnight through sunrise, but additional new development is still possible mainly north of I-20 through the morning as the upper low continues to peel away to the northeast. This could support more localized flooding in parts of North Texas even into the early afternoon hours before all activity eventually vacates the area later in the day. There will be some clearing of cloud cover that occurs this afternoon while temperatures rebound to around 90 degrees. A tranquil overnight period will follow with lows mostly in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Following the departure of the upper low, ridging aloft will build in to begin the week. This will lead to a return of above normal temperatures and mostly rain-free conditions for the following few days. However, there is a slim chance for seabreeze convection to encroach on our southeastern zones on Monday afternoon where small PoPs will be indicated in the public forecast. High temperatures in the mid 90s will combine with upper 60s and lower 70s dewpoints to yield heat index values around or exceeding 100F each afternoon, and this will likely be the first extended stretch of 100+ heat index values for many locations so far this summer. During the second half of the week, global guidance continues to indicate the potential for a weak frontal boundary to sag southward into the Southern Plains. This could result in a couple rounds of convection possibly just to our north which may spread into parts of North Texas via outflows on either Thursday or Friday, and the forecast will indicate PoPs of 20-30% for this scenario. The presence of some cloud cover and occasional afternoon precipitation may be able to reduce highs back to around 90 or even into the upper 80s for a day or two heading towards next weekend depending on exactly how this scenario unfolds. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 A couple isolated storms remain in the vicinity of the Metroplex airports as of 1030z but are quickly waning in intensity. Overall, a lull in convection near the TAF sites is expected for the next coupe of hours before additional activity tied directly to the core of the upper low traverses parts of North Texas from mid morning through early afternoon. This will likely serve as the final opportunity for convection near the TAF sites, mainly between 14-18z, before all activity shifts east of the terminals this afternoon. It`s possible that much of this activity may even stay north of the airports and only briefly cause impacts directly at the terminals. VFR and gradually clearing skies will prevail through the remainder of the afternoon and evening before a swath of MVFR stratus races northward around 06z tonight within breezy southerly flow. Several hours of MVFR stratus can be expected through Monday morning as a result. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 76 92 76 / 50 10 0 0 Waco 91 77 91 75 / 10 0 10 0 Paris 86 74 90 75 / 60 10 0 0 Denton 90 76 91 76 / 60 10 0 0 McKinney 88 76 91 77 / 60 10 0 0 Dallas 90 77 92 77 / 50 10 0 0 Terrell 88 76 91 75 / 50 10 0 0 Corsicana 89 76 92 75 / 20 0 0 0 Temple 90 76 91 74 / 10 0 10 0 Mineral Wells 91 75 92 74 / 40 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104- 115>119-129>134-141>145. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley