Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
312 FXUS64 KFWD 042330 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 630 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot conditions will prevail across the region over the next week, with widespread triple digit temperatures returning for the Labor Day holiday. - Low rain chances will exist most afternoons across portions of Central Texas. Rain-free weather is expected elsewhere. - Elevated fire weather concerns are expected in the Big Country Saturday into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 This morning`s cloud cover and precipitation continues to diminish in coverage as the influence of Edouard is now confined to a mid- level weakness that will continue to shift west through the rest of today. With this weakness mainly to our south, additional isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop through the afternoon across Central Texas. Overall, expect coverage to remain low (20-30%). Gusty outflow winds cannot be ruled out, however, storm related winds should remain below 30 mph. With drier conditions across North Texas, temperatures will continue to rise in to the mid to upper 90s today. Similar to the past couple of days, the lowest relative humidity values will remain west of US-281, where mid to upper 30% can be expected. By tomorrow, North and Central Texas will be located on the southern periphery of the mid-level high pressure system. Easterly flow will bring another weak shortwave across the region during the late morning to early afternoon hours. With tomorrow`s shortwave moving just south of our area, a few showers and storms will once again develop across the Brazos Valley. Similar to today, coverage will mainly remain between 20-30% through around sunset before precipitation dissipates in the evening. For North Texas, a warming trend will commence with temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to today (Friday). && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 On Sunday, a well amplified ridge will be in control across much of the plains, leading to a warming trend that will persist through the rest of the forecast period. A few showers and storms may once again develop in the afternoon across the Brazos Valley, however, coverage is expected to once again remain low. Widespread triple-digit heat can be expected on Labor Day across North Texas with readings generally between 100-103 degrees. Slightly cooler conditions are expected across Central Texas thanks to a more humid airmass. This same pattern will then persist through the rest of the work week as the area of high pressure refuses to move, leading North and Central Texas under hot and dry conditions. The persistence of the hot and dry weather will continue through the rest of the week, leading to a continued elevated fire weather threat across western parts of North and Central Texas. Afternoon relative humidity will drop to around 30% each afternoon. Light winds will continue to mitigate the potential for rapid spread, however, the potential for fire starts will remain in place. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the period with no major aviation concerns. South to southeast winds will prevail between 5 to 10 knots, with light and variable winds expected late tonight through Saturday morning. Guidance has backed off on the potential for fog near the Waco terminal. If any fog were to develop, it should remain south/east of the terminal. Any showers or storms on Saturday will also remain well east/southeast of the terminals. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 78 99 79 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 99 74 97 75 / 30 0 10 0 Paris 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 10 0 Denton 99 74 99 75 / 20 0 0 0 McKinney 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 100 79 100 79 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 98 74 98 74 / 10 0 10 0 Corsicana 96 74 97 75 / 10 0 10 10 Temple 98 72 97 73 / 30 0 10 0 Mineral Wells 99 71 100 72 / 20 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Barnes