Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
296 FXUS64 KFWD 110557 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms will be possible overnight into Friday across parts of Central and North Texas. - Above normal temperatures will continue into next week with most areas rain-free this weekend and beyond. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Earlier convection has largely died off across the region with a remnant frontal boundary/outflow generally along the I-20 corridor at this hour. Modest low level convergence along this boundary within an area of weak ascent aloft downstream from a shortwave moving through the Central and Southern Plains should aid in a few additional showers developing through the overnight hours. This boundary will generally remain in place over the next 12 hours and may serve as a focus for additional convection during the day Friday, although coverage is expected to be less than today. We`ll keep additional rain chances around 20%. Intermittent thicker cloud cover and overall lower heights should shave a few degrees off of high temperatures for Friday with highs generally in the upper 90s. Mid level ridging will again expand across the Southern Plains into the weekend with rain chances dwindling back down toward zero and high temperatures nudging upward a few degrees. Most areas should be at or above 100 degrees again through the weekend. Despite a few sites likely to reach 105 heat index values both today and Saturday, we`ll hold off on any widespread heat advisories for the region for the time being. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Little change is expected to the forecast into next week with well above normal temperatures and near zero rain chances forecast through Wednesday. Mid level ridging will expand across the Southern Plains and eventually into the Southeast U.S. by mid week. This should keep daily high temperatures right around 100 degrees with any limited rain chances confined to our far southeast counties where remnant sea breeze activity may be able to push into. Otherwise, little relief is expected anytime soon to the hot and dry conditions. Dunn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Remnant convective outflow has stalled across the Metroplex as of 0530Z, with KDFW and KAFW reporting northerly winds while KDAL and KGKY report southerly flow with recent 5min obs. Expectations are for all terminals to return to southerly flow over the next few hours, prevailing through the period with speeds generally less than 10 kts. Localized confluence along this boundary maintains a chance for isolated precipitation through the early morning hours, however probability is too low to warrant inclusion in the TAFs. Isolated shower and thunderstorm development will remain possible throughout the day as weak synoptic ascent lingers across the region; low probability of any terminal impacts precludes TAF inclusion at this time. Dornsife && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 78 98 79 / 40 50 20 10 Waco 99 78 99 76 / 20 20 20 10 Paris 97 73 93 73 / 30 30 40 10 Denton 99 73 97 76 / 50 50 20 10 McKinney 98 75 96 75 / 40 40 20 10 Dallas 99 79 99 79 / 30 40 20 10 Terrell 98 75 97 75 / 20 30 20 10 Corsicana 95 76 97 76 / 20 20 20 0 Temple 98 76 99 75 / 10 10 20 10 Mineral Wells 100 72 99 73 / 50 50 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$