Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
249 FXUS64 KFWD 171000 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 500 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A tropical wave is expected to bring scattered thunderstorms to portions of Southeast Texas and the Brazos Valley Friday and Saturday. - For many, the upcoming weekend and next week will be the hottest of the summer so far, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values ranging from 100 to 109. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ /Through Saturday Night/ ...Thursday and Thursday Night... Upper-level ridging will nose into the Southern Plains from the east, allowing high pressure to dominate across the region. This will keep skies clear, and allow temperatures to warm into the upper 90s, potentially being the hottest day of the year so far. The humidity will make it feel slightly hotter outside than the actual temperature, with many seeing peak heat indices in the low 100s. Thursday night should be clear, warm and calm, with lows in the low and mid 70s. ...Friday and Saturday... A weak tropical disturbance will move into far East Texas and Louisiana from the Gulf. This will bring a chance (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon across Southeast Texas and the Brazos Valley. While no severe weather is expected, as with all summertime convection, there will be the potential for frequent lightning, isolated flooding, gusty winds and small hail with the strongest storms. Due to the weakness of the tropical wave, convection will primarily be driven by daytime heating, and as such should begin to develop by late morning, and diminish in coverage and intensity by the late evening hours. Elsewhere across Central and North Texas, high pressure will remain in place, with clear skies and temperatures into the upper 90s each day. Friday will be a relatively pleasant day with dew points in the 60s and heat indices around the actual air temperature. Humidity will be on the rise again by Saturday, with peak heat indices again ranging from 100 to 105. Darrah && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ /Sunday through Wednesday/ In general, we are expected to settle into a more seasonal pattern by the end of this weekend and into next week, with ridging dominating the upper-level flow over the central CONUS, and strong high pressure at the surface. This will bring widespread heat and sun, with temperatures near or slightly above average (in the upper 90s). The one caveat to this is a signal in medium range guidance for a weak tropical wave to move into East and Central Texas by the start of next week. It is unclear at this time whether there will be sufficient lift and moisture for convection, but with surface dew points in the 70s and a weak 500 hPa vort max resolved in both the GFS and the Euro, it is within the realm of possibility to have stray (10-15% chance) showers and thunderstorms develop during the heat of the afternoon. Regardless of whether there will be storms or not, increased humidity and temperatures in the upper 90s will yield peak heat indices ranging from 100-109 each afternoon next week. Darrah && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR conditions and southerly winds at 5-10 knots are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period. Darrah && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 76 98 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 95 71 93 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 95 74 95 74 93 / 0 0 5 5 10 Denton 98 73 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 98 73 98 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 5 Dallas 98 75 99 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 97 73 97 75 95 / 0 0 5 5 5 Corsicana 98 74 97 77 93 / 0 0 5 5 10 Temple 95 71 94 75 93 / 0 0 5 0 5 Mineral Wells 99 71 99 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$