Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
637 FXUS64 KFWD 070616 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 116 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North Texas. Localized heavy rain and flash flooding are likely overnight into Sunday. - In addition to the flooding potential, a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail are possible through the early morning hours. - Warmer and rain-free weather will return for most of the upcoming week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees each afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Potentially significant flash flooding remains the primary concern through the next ~12 hours as a slow-moving upper low and near record PW values combine to support very heavy rainfall. Overnight satellite imagery depicts a strong upper low over the TX Panhandle and western Oklahoma which continues to eject northeastward. It`s strong ascent is interacting with anomalous Gulf moisture with PW values near or exceeding 2", and the resultant widespread convective activity with tropical-like thermal profiles is capable of very heavy rainfall on the order of 2-3" per hour. Flooding issues will be exacerbated by slow storm motions and the tendency for cells to train in a SW-NE fashion. While there is still some uncertainty as to where the epicenter of the rainfall maximum and flooding impacts will be, recent high- res guidance including HREF PMM QPF has been targeting locations roughly along and just south of the I-20 corridor and near/west of I-35 through early this morning. Areas in this vicinity should have the highest potential to experience the localized totals of 6-8" that have been advertised in the ongoing Flood Watch. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur overnight through sunrise, but additional new development is still possible mainly north of I-20 through the morning as the upper low continues to peel away to the northeast. This could support more localized flooding in parts of North Texas even into the early afternoon hours before all activity eventually vacates the area later in the day. There will be some clearing of cloud cover that occurs this afternoon while temperatures rebound to around 90 degrees. A tranquil overnight period will follow with lows mostly in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Following the departure of the upper low, ridging aloft will build in to begin the week. This will lead to a return of above normal temperatures and mostly rain-free conditions for the following few days. However, there is a slim chance for seabreeze convection to encroach on our southeastern zones on Monday afternoon where small PoPs will be indicated in the public forecast. High temperatures in the mid 90s will combine with upper 60s and lower 70s dewpoints to yield heat index values around or exceeding 100F each afternoon, and this will likely be the first extended stretch of 100+ heat index values for many locations so far this summer. During the second half of the week, global guidance continues to indicate the potential for a weak frontal boundary to sag southward into the Southern Plains. This could result in a couple rounds of convection possibly just to our north which may spread into parts of North Texas via outflows on either Thursday or Friday, and the forecast will indicate PoPs of 20-30% for this scenario. The presence of some cloud cover and occasional afternoon precipitation may be able to reduce highs back to around 90 or even into the upper 80s for a day or two heading towards next weekend depending on exactly how this scenario unfolds. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will impact all Metroplex airports for the next several hours with prolonged TSRA impacts likely. In addition to frequent lightning, category reductions to MVFR/IFR due to a combination of cig/vis drops can be expected through the morning. While there may be a brief lull in convective activity nearby during the morning push for at least an hour or two, additional upstream development in parts of North Texas could skirt the terminals later in the morning between 13-17z or so. Thunderstorms during the afternoon are largely expected to be east of all TAF sites. Following the departure of showers and thunderstorms, gradually clearing skies can be expected with a southerly breeze of 10-15 kt and gusts of 20-25 kts through the rest of the forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 70 90 76 / 80 80 50 10 Waco 86 74 91 77 / 60 60 10 0 Paris 82 72 86 74 / 90 60 60 10 Denton 86 70 90 76 / 60 80 60 10 McKinney 84 71 88 76 / 90 70 60 10 Dallas 88 71 90 77 / 80 80 50 10 Terrell 85 72 88 76 / 80 80 60 10 Corsicana 87 73 89 76 / 60 70 40 0 Temple 87 76 90 76 / 40 40 10 0 Mineral Wells 86 70 91 75 / 90 80 40 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104- 115>119-129>134-141>145. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley