Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
014 FXUS64 KFWD 290008 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 708 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A significant pattern change will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to North and Central Texas Wednesday through Friday. - Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. - The threat for flash flooding will increase Wednesday through Thursday, particularly where heavy rain repeatedly moves over the same area. - Increased clouds and rain will bring cooler temperatures from Thursday and Friday, with a cold front keeping the cooler air in place through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon, primarily from the Metroplex into northeast Texas. This activity remains focused near a residual low to mid-level moisture/theta-e gradient as a subtle shortwave traverses the northwest flow aloft. As long as these features remain favorably aligned, weak ascent should be sufficient to periodically regenerate convection. This subtle, weakly forced setup has also been poorly handled by the CAMs, where small differences in the analyzed moisture axis and embedded wave have resulted in substantial differences in convective placement. Coverage should gradually decrease later this afternoon as the shortwave departs and forcing becomes increasingly displaced from the residual moisture gradient. A brief period of shortwave ridging will follow tonight into Tuesday while attention quickly turns upstream. Hurricane Polo will move into the Baja California Peninsula later today while an upper trough digs south through California. This trough will close off and slow as it pivots east across the Desert Southwest Tuesday, eventually drawing Polos remnant moisture north and northeast into its circulation. Meanwhile, strengthening southerly flow downstream of the upper low will begin a rapid return of Gulf moisture into Texas. Tuesday will therefore largely serve as a transition and moisture-loading period locally with increasing cloud cover, though most areas will remain dry through the daytime hours. Rain chances will begin increasing from west to east early Wednesday morning as large-scale ascent approaches and the increasingly deep moisture plume spreads into North and Central Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 A multi-day period of widespread rain and thunderstorms will begin Wednesday as the Desert Southwest upper low approaches the Southern Plains. By this time, remnant tropical moisture associated with Polo will have become entrained within strengthening southwest flow aloft while a strengthening southerly low-level jet transports Gulf moisture northward. This combination will produce an anomalously deep moisture plume across the region, with precipitable water values approaching or exceeding 2 inches. Increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the upper low, persistent low-level moisture transport, and embedded disturbances within the southwest flow will provide a favorable environment for repeated rounds of efficient, heavy rainfall Wednesday into Thursday. There remains meaningful uncertainty in exactly where the heaviest rainfall axis develops, much of which is tied to the evolution of the upper low and an accompanying dry slot. A more progressive/open system would allow the dry intrusion to advance farther east across North and Central Texas, shortening the duration of heavy rainfall from west to east while shifting the persistent moisture-convergence axis farther east. Conversely, a deeper/slower upper low would delay the dry intrusion and maintain southwest flow through the tropical moisture plume for a longer period, increasing the residence time of the high-PW environment and supporting higher rainfall totals. This distinction will also determine where bands of convection repeatedly develop and train. Current expectations are for widespread storm totals of 2 to 5 inches through Thursday night, with locally higher amounts possible. Amounts in excess of 7 inches cannot be ruled out where repeated convection becomes anchored along a slow-moving convergence axis. The flooding threat should consequently evolve through the event rather than peak everywhere simultaneously. Wednesdays concern will initially be driven by efficient rainfall processes and locally high rainfall rates, particularly wherever convection repeatedly tracks across the same locations. By Wednesday night and Thursday, antecedent rainfall will increasingly reduce the ability of soils and drainage systems to accommodate additional rainfall, allowing flooding to become more readily realized with subsequent rounds. The axis of heaviest rainfall may gradually shift south toward Central and Southeast Texas Thursday, although meaningful rain chances will continue across most of the region. Severe weather remains a secondary concern at this time, but sufficient shear will be present for a few stronger storms, particularly near the leading edge of the approaching convection Wednesday afternoon. Confidence decreases considerably late in the week as guidance continues to struggle with how quickly the upper low is ejected from the Southern Plains. A slower system would keep the front and deeper moisture nearby and allow periods of rain to persist into Friday or potentially the weekend, while a more progressive solution would bring a quicker west-to-east end to precipitation. Temperatures will fall considerably from recent anomalously warm values beneath widespread clouds and rainfall Wednesday and Thursday, with additional cooling possible following the eventual frontal passage. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 VFR and dry conditions are expected at airports this TAF period with just a few low/mid level clouds and sct cirrus. There is a low (less than 15%) chance for MVFR cigs to reach ACT from the south between 12-15Z Tuesday morning, but chance is too low to include in TAF. Southeast winds up to 10 knots tonight will become southerly and increase to around 15 knots with higher gusts after 16Z Tuesday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 95 76 93 / 10 0 0 50 Waco 73 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 50 Paris 68 94 72 93 / 10 0 0 30 Denton 73 94 75 94 / 20 0 0 60 McKinney 70 94 73 93 / 10 0 0 50 Dallas 75 95 76 95 / 10 0 0 50 Terrell 70 95 73 94 / 10 0 0 40 Corsicana 71 95 73 94 / 10 0 0 40 Temple 72 95 73 97 / 0 0 10 60 Mineral Wells 71 93 72 92 / 20 0 0 70 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...Shamburger