Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
978 FXUS64 KFWD 061930 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 130 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will bring a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes across parts of North and Central TX. - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue to bring a threat for severe weather and flash flooding this weekend and into next week, especially Saturday and Tuesday-Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Southwest flow aloft remains in place across the Southern Plains this afternoon, downstream from a broad western trough. As this larger scale trough begins to evolve over the next 24 hours, a northern-stream shortwave will split off and eject through the Plains this evening and tonight while a closed low develops and settles farther southwest toward Baja/northern Mexico by Saturday. The net result for North and Central Texas will be a continued unsettled pattern with multiple opportunities for convection through the forecast period. At the surface, the forecast area is firmly within a moist warm sector ahead of an approaching dry line/cold front. Deep Gulf moisture is already in place, and the airmass over the region is notably moist for early March with precipitable water values nearing or at daily climatological maxima. Aloft, increasing large-scale ascent will continue to overspread the region through tonight. The main forecast challenge through the afternoon continues to be the erosion of lingering capping (as seen on the 18Z special sounding and area ACARs soundings). Despite a favorable moisture axis, steep mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient shear for organized convection, the warm layer aloft may continue to act as an effective limiter to storm coverage for a few more hours. In other words, the environment may be supportive of severe storms where updrafts can become sustained, but not every area will necessarily realize that potential. This will keep coverage in the isolated to scattered category through much of the afternoon and evening. The best storm coverage will likely be near and east of I-35 within the deeper moisture plume, and near and north of I-20 where stronger ascent will reside. Any storms that do develop through the mid to late afternoon and into the early evening will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and even a couple tornadoes. The greatest severe risk should reside where storms can remain more surface-based within the warm sector and along any remnant or convectively generated boundaries. Localized backing of the low-level flow near outflow could also enhance low level shear on a very isolated basis, but these mesoscale corridors will be difficult to diagnose in advance. Farther west, initiation along the dryline appears more conditional, so confidence remains lower in a more robust western North Texas storm scenario before sunset. Storm chances will continue overnight as the cold front moves south into North Texas. Convection may increase in coverage at times late tonight into Saturday morning as frontal forcing strengthens, but storm mode and hazard type will likely become increasingly tied to boundary evolution. If storms can remain rooted near the surface along or just ahead of the effective boundary, severe hazards would remain on the table early Saturday. If ongoing convection becomes increasingly undercut by the front or reinforced outflow, the dominant concern would gradually shift toward heavy rainfall and localized flooding. By Saturday, the front will continue pressing south from the forecast area, though its exact position may be modulated by convective outflow from earlier storms. This will be important because the effective boundary may not line up perfectly with the synoptic front at times. Wherever that composite boundary sets up will serve as the primary focus for renewed development, localized enhancements in low level shear, and the potential for training convection. Storms that can remain more organized along and south of the boundary may still pose a severe weather threat, including large hail, while the broader concern may increasingly transition to heavy rainfall. As alluded to earlier, the environment will be supportive of efficient rainfall rates, and any southwest-to-northeast training segments along the boundary could lead to a flash flood threat. This risk will be tied much more to where storms repeatedly develop than to uniform areawide rainfall. The severe and hydro threat should generally shift south with the front through the day Saturday, with convection becoming more focused across Central Texas by afternoon and into the early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 The broader pattern will remain active through much of the next work week as the southern stream low settling towards Baja/northern Mexico becomes the dominant feature in the extended period. As this upper low eventually begins to shift slowly east, periodic lift and multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms will persist across North and Central Texas through at least the middle of next week. Saturday night into Monday should have a relative lull in coverage across most of North Texas, with the best rain chances lingering across Central and Southeast Texas. Rain and storm chances should return to North Texas Monday afternoon, increasing areawide Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper low begins to shift east and larger scale ascent strengthens across the region. Exactly how this period evolves will depend on the degree of warm sector recovery, but the pattern supports additional rounds of convection with both severe weather and flooding remaining possible. The flood threat may become increasingly sensitive to where heavier rainfall occurs this weekend. The pattern continues to look more dry and seasonable by the end of the week and into the weekend in the wake of the departing upper low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 South winds will remain gusty through this evening ahead of an approaching cold front, with sustained speeds around 15 to 20 kt and gusts frequently near 30 kt at all TAF sites. Scattered showers are already ongoing across D10 with additional development expected this afternoon and evening as a shortwave moves across the region. Convective coverage remains somewhat conditional, but confidence is high enough to maintain VCTS at the Metroplex terminals from 19-02Z with a TEMPO for TSRA during the late afternoon and evening. Brief reductions in visibility, erratic wind gusts, and hail will be possible with any stronger storms. Thunder chances remain lower at Waco through the evening, so have kept that site dry for now. A second round of convection is expected late tonight through Saturday along and ahead of the cold front. MVFR ceilings should redevelop overnight areawide, with another period of showers and thunderstorms likely near the Metroplex terminals Saturday morning and at Waco closer to midday and early afternoon as the front pushes south. Frontal passage should occur around 14Z at the D10 airports and near 16Z at ACT, with winds shifting to the north behind the front while low ceilings linger through much of the day Saturday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested across parts of North and Central Texas this afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 70 50 72 / 70 80 30 10 Waco 63 73 51 70 / 40 90 50 20 Paris 61 69 48 71 / 90 80 50 10 Denton 53 68 43 72 / 80 80 30 10 McKinney 58 69 48 72 / 80 80 40 10 Dallas 60 71 51 72 / 70 80 30 10 Terrell 61 73 49 72 / 70 90 50 10 Corsicana 66 77 54 73 / 50 90 60 20 Temple 66 76 52 71 / 40 80 60 30 Mineral Wells 53 65 44 74 / 80 80 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12