Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
470 FXUS64 KFWD 242343 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 643 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot temperatures will continue through at least tomorrow. An Extreme Heat Warning or Heat Advisory is in effect for all of North and Central Texas today and tomorrow. - There continues to be an elevated risk of rapidly spreading wildfires this evening across Western North and Central Texas. - A weak cold front may bring temperatures into the upper 90s to mid 100s mid to late week along with very low/sporadic rain chances. - Hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Today is shaping up to be the hottest day of the year. Just about all locations across the forecast area have already eclipsed the 100 degree mark as of 2 pm. Areas west of I-35 and north of I-20 should end up being the hottest locations, with several locations in this area peaking around 110 degrees. Temperatures this high for our area can generally only be achieved when the air is very dry, and that is the case today. Relative humidity will fall below 25% for the entire forecast area, and to around 15% for most locations along and west of I-35. When you combine the very hot and dry air, along with slightly breezy winds and abundant sunshine, there is an elevated risk of rapidly spreading wildfires for Western North and Central Texas through the afternoon. Extreme care is urged during all outside activities where there is a potential for fires to get started. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for all of North and Central Texas this afternoon. We extended the warning through tomorrow for most of North Texas and Western Central Texas, and downgraded our far southern and eastern counties to a Heat Advisory for tomorrow. While humidity will be a little higher tomorrow compared today, heat index values should stay close to the ambient temperature. Therefore, we mainly used the ambient temperature to determine where to place our warning and advisory. As a reminder, our Extreme Heat Warning temperature criteria is 105+ and our Heat Advisory temperature criteria is 103+. We will also see more cloud cover tomorrow, which will help keep temperatures a little lower than today. There is a low (20%) chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms clipping the northeast parts of our forecast area late tonight and early tomorrow morning as a shortwave trough circles around the periphery of the mid-level ridge. These systems have generally remained to the north and east of our forecast area, but the apex of the ridge should slide ever-so-slightly east tomorrow and open the door for this to move into our area. Most of this precip will form in the mid-levels and fall into a very dry sub-cloud layer, evaporating before reaching the surface. At the same time, a weak low pressure system and cold front is forecast to stall over Oklahoma. Confluence along the front may allow for a few storms to develop in the afternoon, but it appears that surface/boundary layer moisture will be too thin to develop any meaningful precipitation along this boundary. As it stands right now, PoPs along this boundary are generally 5-10%. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The briefly alluded to "cold front" and surface low is forecast to sag south into our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Similar to tonight, another shortwave trough is forecast to move around the ridge and bring a cluster of showers and storms toward the region in the late night/early morning hours. Most of this activity should remain in Oklahoma, but there is a 10-15% chance of a few showers moving in from the northwest early Wednesday morning. As we head into Wednesday afternoon, expect temperatures north of the boundary to be a little "less hot", in the low 100s and perhaps the upper 90s for a few lucky spots. South of the front, temperatures will be driven up a few degrees thanks to compressional warming. Most of our Central Texas locations are forecast to peak between 104-106 degrees on Wednesday afternoon. The cold front is forecast to stall somewhere around I-20 (give or take a few counties), with a 10-20% chance of isolated showers and storms developing along the front in the afternoon. The main limiting factor to precip development will be the amount of available boundary-layer moisture, but there should be sufficient lift. This pattern is forecast to continue for the rest of the work week, but the main ridge responsible for our excessive heat the past couple days should continue to shift east. As a result, rain chances increase to 20-30% on Thursday and Friday, mainly for Central Texas where the lingering frontal boundary is expected to reside. This will also lower temperatures to near 100 on Thursday and even into the upper 90s for most of the region on Friday. Unfortunately, the ridge aloft shifts west over the weekend into early next week, cutting off rain chances and bringing widespread triple digit heat back to the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions and south to southwest winds around 8 to 13 kt will prevail through the period. Radar echoes may overspread portions of D10 late tonight and Tuesday morning as weak disturbances move around the northern periphery of the ridge. However, a very dry sub-cloud layer is expected to limit most of this activity to virga, with little if any precipitation reaching the surface. While meaningful impacts to the Metroplex terminals remain unlikely, any high-based showers/virga that develop could still locally enhance surface winds in addition to brief shifts in wind direction. Have maintained a dry TAF through 26/06Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 105 84 102 / 10 10 0 10 Waco 79 104 80 104 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 79 103 78 100 / 20 10 0 10 Denton 82 106 81 102 / 0 10 10 10 McKinney 82 104 81 101 / 10 10 0 10 Dallas 84 106 83 104 / 10 10 0 10 Terrell 80 104 80 103 / 10 10 0 10 Corsicana 80 103 80 103 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 76 103 78 104 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 78 107 78 103 / 0 0 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>094- 100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156-157-159. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-106- 107-122-123-135-147-148-158-160>162-174-175. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ095-106-107-122-123- 135-147-148-158-160>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...12