Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
121 FXUS64 KFWD 112325 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 625 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing southerly winds, seasonably hot temperatures, and low humidity will support an increasing threat for wildfires across North and Central TX through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Another seasonably hot day is underway across North Central Texas, as the region remains under the domination of a sprawling upper ridge extending from the Rockies southeastward to Florida. A slight weakness in the ridge persists across East Central Texas, and this has produced an area of enhanced cloud cover over our far southeast zones today. While high temperatures generally north and west of the DFW area will top out around or just above the century mark today, slightly lower readings will prevail across much of Central Texas. Have maintained the Heat Advisory for this afternoon, and expanded it slightly across a few of our far eastern counties to coincide with advisories farther east. Fire weather concerns will increase from this afternoon onward through Wednesday (and certainly beyond to Thursday), as drier low level air mixes into the region, coupled with increasing wind speeds. Minimum afternoon relative humidities will diminish to the 25-30% range across western North Texas this afternoon, expanding to a broader area of roughly 25% RH`s by Wednesday afternoon. Surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies will promote steady south winds of 10-15 mph, gusting at times in excess of 20 mph both afternoon. With fuels continuing to cure with time, the potential for new fire starts and elevated fire behavior will increase through Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 No relief appears in sight from the hot, dry weather which continues to grip North Central Texas. An expansive upper level ridge will continue to dominate the Southern Plains states. Subsidence in association with this ridge will continue to suppress cloud cover and precipitation while promoting temperatures which are several degrees above seasonal norms. Although day to day variations will exist in the humidity and wind fields, in general, afternoon relative humidities will dip below 30% across much of North Central Texas, west of I-35, each day through Monday. While wind speeds will not be overly significant, enough gustiness will exist from day to day to promote some elevated fire concerns through the period. In addition to the fire threat, heat indices and wet bulb globe temperatures are likely to increase from late week through next weekend. Additional heat related products will likely be required by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Overall pleasant flying weather is anticipated across the region with VFR and afternoon cumulus expected. Expect southerly winds with speeds between 12-16 kt with occasional higher gusts at all TAF sites over the next 24-30 hours. VFR is expected to prevail at all airports, though some low clouds may approach ACT between 09-16Z Wednesday morning. Probabilities of direct terminal impacts for these MVFR cigs remain around 20% or less, so will keep the ACT TAF as VFR for now. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 98 77 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 101 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 98 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 101 80 102 80 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 98 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 97 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-101>107- 116>123-133>135. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Prater