471
FXUS64 KFWD 041759
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1259 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 10-20% chance for isolated storms to affect areas
  immediately along the Red River this evening.

- A cold front will bring scattered showers and storms to the area
  late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A few strong to severe
  storms are possible near and east of Interstate 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A warm, breezy and mostly dry afternoon is underway across North
and Central Texas as southerly flow strengthens ahead of a
sharpening dryline to our west/northwest. Afternoon highs will
climb into the mid and upper 80s with south winds of 15-25 mph
and occasional gusts to 30-35 mph.

The dryline will extend from central Kansas into northwestern
North Texas late this afternoon and evening. While moisture return
will continue, convergence along the dryline is expected to
remain weak and most locations across the forecast area should
remain dry. There remains a conditional severe threat into North
Texas, with any isolated dryline storm capable of large hail.
This potential appears greatest near the Red River and mainly
northwest of the DFW Metroplex, where a storm or two could skirt
the far northern counties around sunset. Otherwise, a dry and
breezy evening is favored.

Low clouds will increase late tonight into Tuesday morning,
especially across Central and East Texas as low-level moisture
deepens. Overnight lows will remain mild, generally in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday remains the more notable forecast challenge. A cold front
will sag southward into North Texas by mid to late afternoon,
while a dryline extends southward through western/central Texas.
Dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s will pool ahead of the
front, with moderate instability developing by the afternoon.
However, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding cap
strength, frontal timing, and the degree of large-scale ascent
available during peak heating.

The greatest threat for severe weather, should storms form, will
be across northeast Texas, along and east of I-35 during the
evening hours. If storms develop along the front Tuesday
evening, they could become strong to severe. Large hail and
damaging winds would be the primary hazards, though a tornado or
two cannot be ruled out if semi-discrete storms can persist near
or ahead of the front as the low-level jet strengthens.

Storm mode may become messy fairly quickly as shear vectors become
increasingly parallel to the boundary, favoring towards linear
segments. Convection should spread south and southeast Tuesday
night into Central and East Texas, with the severe threat
gradually becoming more wind-focused before weakening late.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The front`s position on Wednesday remains the main uncertainty.
One scenario pushes the boundary south of the region early in the
day, ending rain chances fairly quickly. Scenario 2 allows the
front to slow or stall across Central Texas, maintaining
additional showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon. With
most of the guidance showing minimal precipitation along the
front, the most likely outcome is now scenario 2 -- a stalled
boundary dividing North and Central Texas.

Should the front slow or stall, scattered strong to severe storms
will be possible on Wednesday with damaging winds and large hail
the main threats. The greatest area of concern on Wednesday would
be across Central and East Texas.

Behind the front, cooler and somewhat direr air should arrive for
late week, with near to slightly below normal temperatures
Thursday and Friday. Low-end rain chances may linger across
Central Texas if isentropic lift develops north of the boundary;
much of North Texas should remain dry.

By next weekend, forecast confidence decreases as another system
may approach North and Central Texas. We`ll continue to monitor
for any severe weather or heavy rain potential.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds continue across North and
Central Texas, with a few gusts topping 30 kts. This trend is
expected to continue through the duration of this TAF cycle.

A deck of low clouds will develop overnight, migrating to the
northeast early Tuesday morning. Latest guidance drives the clouds
across from KACT to KDAL and areas east of that line. For now,
low ceilings are advertised at KDAL but will continue to be
monitored for any possible eastward expansion.

The low clouds will linger through the late morning hours before
becoming VFR once again by 18z.

A cold front will be moving across D10 tomorrow afternoon,
bringing northerly winds as well as a potential for convective
activity. Overall, the probability of rain remains around 20%,
therefore, no mention has been included in the extended portion
of the KDFW TAF.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  93  62  79 /   0  10  20  10
Waco                69  90  68  86 /   0   0  20  20
Paris               68  86  61  74 /  10  10  40  30
Denton              69  91  57  76 /   0  10  20  10
McKinney            69  90  60  77 /  10  10  20  10
Dallas              71  94  63  81 /   0  10  20  10
Terrell             68  88  64  79 /   0  10  20  20
Corsicana           70  90  70  85 /   0   0  20  30
Temple              68  90  70  85 /   0   0  20  20
Mineral Wells       68  92  58  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez