Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
417 FXUS64 KFWD 211846 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 146 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Prolonged dry and hot conditions are expected this week with temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS are expected across much of North and Central Texas through Wednesday. - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for areas near and east of Interstate 35 and north of Interstate 20 this afternoon through 8PM tonight for heat index values up to 112 degrees. - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of North and Central Texas through 8PM tonight for heat index values up to 108 degrees. - An Extreme Heat Warning will be in effect for virtually all of North Central and Central Texas on Wednesday, with the exception of the extreme northeast and southwest counties of our forecast area. A Heat Advisory will continue in effect for these remaining areas. Heat index values on the order of 108 to 114 degrees will occur during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Significant and hazardous heat will continue to afflict North and Central Texas this afternoon through Wednesday, as a large ridge of upper level high pressure dominates the Rockies and Southern and Central Plains. Subsidence in association with this ridge will lead to substantial heating in the lower portions of the atmosphere, which, coupled with relatively high dewpoints, will produce heat indices in excess of 110 degrees in many areas. The primary region of concern this afternoon will be be generally along and east of I-35, and north of I-20, where an Excessive Heat Warning will remain in effect. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory will remain in effect for heat indices above 105. Cooling will be limited tonight in the central urban cores where the heat island effect will be maximized. Some locations may only manage lows in the lower to middle 80s prior to daybreak Wednesday. Short-range guidance continues to advertise a backdoor front sliding southward across the Red River into portions of Eastern and North Central Texas after daybreak Wednesday. This will promote a wind shift to the northeast across much of the area by late morning and early afternoon. Unfortunately, moisture convergence along and ahead of this boundary will likely send heat indices above 110 degrees over most of North and Central Texas Wednesday, particularly along and east of I-35. As a result, the Excessive Heat Warning will expand to include roughly the eastern two thirds of our forecast area Wednesday, the only exception being the extreme northeast and southwest counties. Even in these separated locales, relief will be minor, with Heat Advisories still warranted. Latest extended runs of the HRRR are beginning to feature some isolated showers across North Texas later Wednesaday afternoon, due possibly to some elevated moisture convergence behind the backdoor surface front. Elected not to bite on this precipitation at this time in the current forecast, but wouldn`t rule out some isolated activity eventually occurring, assuming this limited forcing persists. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 No appreciable changes in the longer term forecast, as the expansive upper ridge holds sway over much of the Southern Rockies, Central and Southern Plains, and parts of the Southeast U.S. through the period. By and large, the presence of strong subsidence and limited cloud cover will promote daily highs above the century mark through the weekend, into early next week. The only wildcard will be the future progression of Bertha. Some longer range models bring the remnants of this system into Southeast Texas by Thursday and Friday. Depending on the scope of the remnant moisture, some clouds and limited chances for precipitation may need to be introduced to some of the Central Texas zones in the Thursday through Saturday period. This would also tend to knock daytime temps down slightly within these areas. Much uncertainty remains concerning the future track and evolution of Bertha, so confidence in this portion of the forecast remains moderate at best. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through 00z Thursday. A very weak surface pressure gradient across North Texas will promote light and variable winds through at least 02z this evening, after which time, a light southerly flow should prevail overnight. By around 11-13z Wednesday, winds will likely veer to a north, then eventually northeasterly direction as a weak backdoor cold front sweeps into D10 and the remainder of North Texas. Wind speeds for the most part should remain around 5-7 knots behind this boundary. However some north to northeast winds bumping up at times to 8-10 knots may occur within D10 during the 15-19z timeframe. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 104 82 101 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 81 101 82 99 / 0 10 0 0 Paris 79 98 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 81 103 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 81 102 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 85 104 82 101 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 80 101 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 82 101 80 98 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 80 102 81 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 103 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-100>102- 115>117-130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175. Extreme Heat Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091-100>102-115>117-130>135-143>148-157>162-174- 175. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ092-093- 103>105-107-118>123. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095- 106. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ094-095-106. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ129-141-142-156. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Bradshaw