Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
664 FXUS64 KFWD 310630 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1230 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much colder temperatures and frigid wind chills are expected today. - A warm up will occur Sunday through early next week, with low rain chances returning to parts of the region late Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) A strong cold front is moving through North Texas tonight with breezy northerly winds and temperatures in the 20s now spreading across the Red River. Strong cold air advection will continue overnight with temperatures dropping into the teens along the Red River and into the low 20s along and south of I-20. The brisk north winds will make it feel much colder with wind chills near zero at times. Winds will diminish as we go through Saturday morning but high temperatures will struggle to get above freezing north of I-20 with readings in the low/mid 30s farther to the south. There is a stream of mid level moisture that will spread into the region from strong northwest flow aloft and this may result in some intermittent cloud cover through the day despite strong surface high pressure building into the Arklatex. Saturday will be a downright cold day, but the duration of cold will be short lived given a progressive upper level pattern. Low temperatures will drop into the teens and low 20s again Saturday night, but as the surface high quickly moves east on Sunday, we`ll see southerly winds return beneath weak mid level ridging. This will allow temperatures to rebound into the mid/upper 50s across much of the area and perhaps some low 60s out west. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) The warming trend will continue through Tuesday as deep troughing remains over the eastern CONUS and the southern Plains remain beneath subtle ridging. Highs may approach the lower 70s both Monday and Tuesday, particularly across our south and southwest counties. It`ll remain a little cooler to the north and northeast. A weak shortwave will spread out of the Desert Southwest late Monday and its influence on a deepening surface low over West Texas will result in moisture being pulled northward into North Texas, particularly east of I-35 late Monday and Tuesday. This occurs ahead of an amplifying trough and cold front over the Central U.S. The front will move into North Texas on Tuesday afternoon as modest forcing for ascent overspreads the region. This should result in at least some scattered showers and perhaps a few storms mainly east of I-35 where we`ll have 30-50% PoPs. This system will move east quickly late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning taking rain chances with it, but the main upper trough will continue to amplify as it digs through West Texas. Very strong synoptic forcing for ascent is forecast across the Southern Plains during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening with the cold core of the upper low spreading into North Texas. Forecast soundings aloft have quite a bit of moisture, but the sub-cloud layer is rather dry. This may be a situation where we have considerably more cloud cover than currently forecast and this would certainly result in forecast high temperatures several degrees colder for Wednesday afternoon than we`re currently advertising. We`ll continue to monitor this as there could be some light precip attempt to fall out of the mid level deck of clouds. Otherwise, this too will move east quickly late Wednesday given the progressive pattern and we should warm back up into the 60s and lower 70s by the end of the week. Dunn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) A cold front is moving through North Texas at this hour with gusty north winds and colder air spilling southward. Some mid level clouds are expected through the night but as of now, it appears that any MVFR cigs should stay off to our north and west. North winds will gust to 25 kt overnight and diminish during the mid morning hours on Saturday. VFR will prevail Saturday with winds gradually becoming more southeast by Saturday night. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 19 33 24 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 51 25 38 23 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 43 14 31 20 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 46 14 32 19 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 44 16 31 21 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 47 19 34 24 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 46 17 33 21 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 48 22 37 25 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 51 24 39 22 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 50 18 36 21 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$