Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
737 FXUS64 KFWD 142335 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 635 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms may produce locally heavy rain this evening. - Isolated storms are expected again on Tuesday, followed by hotter temperatures and little to no rain the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ /Through Tuesday/ Scattered showers across North Texas continue to dwindle, with most of this activity primarily tied to an MCV currently centered over northern parts of the Metroplex. The activity across Central Texas this morning has since dissipated, but another round of scattered showers and storms may develop across these areas this afternoon, tied to a second MCV centered over the Hill Country. Weak instability and little opportunity to destabilize should keep any activity across North Texas rather tame. However, the 12Z FWD upper air sounding measured a PW of 2.15", which is well above the climatological 90th percentile of 1.85". The anomalous moisture will continue to support the potential for locally heavy rain, but fortunately, rainfall rates have been quite lower than we`ve seen in recent days. Further south across Central Texas, breaks in cloud cover is allowing for modest destabilization. As a result, a few robust storms with gusty winds and small hail can`t be ruled out later this afternoon, but severe weather will be quite unlikely given the lack of shear. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main concern with any of this activity. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected to linger into the evening, primarily across Central Texas and eastern North Texas. Most areas will likely see a brief lull in rain chances late tonight, but some isolated convection will have the potential to linger through the entire overnight period. We`ll remain beneath weak upper level troughing on Tuesday, though an upper level ridge across the Deep South will attempt to build further west into portions of eastern North and Central Texas. The weak troughing will bring additional chances for showers and storms to the region on Tuesday, but the best chances will be confined to North Texas and areas west of I-35 in Central Texas. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern with any of this activity. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ An upper level ridge will continue to build into the region through the remainder of the period, effectively shutting off rain chances for most of the area. The main exception will be portions of Southeast Texas and the Brazos Valley where we could see some seabreeze activity Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, temperatures will be on a warming trend, with highs in the mid to upper 90s expected for most of the region by this weekend. Heat index values will be in the triple digits, so ensure you`re taking extra precautions to stay safe in the heat. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will continue at D10 airports this TAF period with scattered low and mid level clouds. Chance for any showers or thunderstorms near the airports appears too low to mention VCSH/VCTS. For ACT, VFR conditions with VCSH are expected this evening with dry conditions overnight. Added mention of tempo MVFR cigs from 12-15Z at ACT as model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this potential. South winds up to 10 knots are expected tonight, increasing tomorrow up to 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots at times. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 93 75 94 76 / 20 20 0 5 0 Waco 73 91 73 92 72 / 30 20 0 0 0 Paris 73 91 73 92 73 / 20 20 5 5 0 Denton 74 94 75 95 75 / 20 20 0 5 0 McKinney 75 93 74 94 75 / 20 20 0 5 0 Dallas 76 93 75 95 76 / 20 20 0 5 0 Terrell 73 93 73 94 74 / 20 20 0 5 0 Corsicana 75 94 75 95 75 / 20 10 0 0 0 Temple 73 92 73 93 72 / 30 20 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 93 74 94 73 / 10 20 5 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$