Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
310 FXUS64 KFWD 311043 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 543 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will periodically impact the area the rest of Labor Day weekend. - A Flood Watch is in effect for most of Central Texas today where isolated rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible. - Following cooler temperatures over the weekend, highs will return to the 80s and lower 90s next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: With this morning`s update, have issued a Flood Watch for most of our Central Texas counties where convection is already in progress and beginning to produce heavy rainfall. Rates as high as 2.5" per hour have already been observed, and this will be capable of resulting in flooding with isolated totals of 3-5" likely occurring within the Flood Watch today. Fortunately, the highest rain totals should occur in areas that have largely missed out on rainfall the past couple of days, and drier soils will be capable of handling some initial rainfall before excessive runoff can begin. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Tonight/ The Central Texas quasi-stationary surface frontal boundary that has delivered showers and thunderstorms to the area the past couple of days continues to become increasingly diffuse, with little remaining thermodynamic contrast. However, in the presence of weak low-level convergence and additional upstream ripples within northwest flow aloft, a favorable setup for convective development will exist again today, especially this morning through parts of Central Texas in closer proximity to the residual boundary. Expect numerous showers and storms to develop around and after daybreak mainly south of I-20, with coverage much more isolated farther to the north. Heavy rain and flooding will be the main concern, with some isolated amounts of 2-4" possible, but instances of flooding should remain too isolated to warrant any formal Watch product at this time. While the greatest coverage is forecast through the first half of the day, additional isolated showers and storms are possible anywhere within the forecast area during the afternoon and early evening which will be aided by diurnal destabilization and ascent resulting from height falls ahead of a stronger Central Plains shortwave. With ample cloud cover present across most of the area, highs should be held to the low/mid 80s for much of the CWA this afternoon. Expect a relative minimum in convective activity through the late evening and overnight period before additional showers and storms develop heading into Monday morning as the main mid-level vort max impinges on North Texas. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 111 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ /Monday Onward/ Chances for scattered showers and storms will continue into Labor Day, although rain coverage is expected to be lower than the previous couple of days with many areas likely to stay dry to end the holiday weekend. Convective development will be disorganized and due to a combination of a return to southeast low-level flow and warm advection, as well as modest height falls from a strong Central Plains and Midwest shortwave trough. PoPs of 20-40% will be advertised through most of the daytime before rain chances come to an end Monday evening following an eventual eastward shift of the upper trough axis. A trailing cold front will arrive Monday night into Tuesday with minimal rain chances along the boundary itself. However, this feature will usher in slightly cooler air along with lower dewpoints which will result in a fairly pleasant and less humid midweek period with highs in the 80s and lower 90s. An anomalously strong trough will take shape across the eastern CONUS during the second half of the week, with northwest flow aloft prevailing locally. This regime will send an additional front or two towards the forecast area during the late week period, but high temperatures are likely to rebound into the 90s prior to their arrival. This could be especially true on Friday afternoon in the presence of compressional warming due to veering westerly winds ahead of a cold front. This pattern could also send one or more decaying convective complexes into the forecast area from Kansas/Oklahoma on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday, and low PoPs will be included in the forecast each day for this uncertain potential. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ The low stratus deck is beginning to scatter out across D10 TAF sites as of 11z, but cigs at low MVFR heights are still expected to intermittently affect the Metroplex airports through the morning. Most of the convective activity is on track to remain south of the D10 TAF sites this morning, and therefore will eliminate the VCTS mention with this forecast issuance. Additional isolated shower/storm development is possible this afternoon, and this may actually be the time period of greater chances for TS impacts in parts of North Texas. For Waco, several hours of nearby TSRA are forecast this morning into the early afternoon before activity eventually moves off to the southeast. After the clearing of this morning`s stratus, VFR should prevail through the rest of the TAF period, although there is a small chance for patchy fog/mist to develop Monday morning which will need to be monitored for subsequent TAFs. A shift to north winds will likely occur on Monday morning in the extended DFW TAF period, and this subtle boundary may be accompanied by renewed isolated shower/storm development. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 71 88 71 89 / 50 40 20 5 5 Waco 83 71 90 69 92 / 80 50 40 5 5 Paris 84 69 85 67 85 / 40 20 20 10 10 Denton 84 69 87 67 89 / 50 30 30 5 5 McKinney 83 69 87 67 88 / 50 30 20 5 5 Dallas 85 73 89 72 90 / 50 40 20 5 5 Terrell 83 70 89 68 90 / 60 30 20 5 10 Corsicana 84 72 88 69 90 / 80 40 30 5 5 Temple 84 69 88 69 93 / 80 50 50 5 5 Mineral Wells 86 69 88 67 90 / 60 30 30 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ135-142>148-156>162-174- 175. && $$