Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
850 FXUS64 KFWD 102332 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 532 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Following a seasonably cool Monday, a warming trend will occur through the rest of the workweek with highs returning to the 70s and 80s. - An elevated wildfire threat will materialize west of I-35 on Tuesday due to low humidity, breezy south winds, and warmer temperatures. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Another cool day is in store across the region in the wake of this weekend`s cold front. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 50s for most areas, with sunny skies and north winds around 5-10 mph. Light south winds will return to the region this evening. Another chilly morning is expected on Tuesday, but most locations will remain above freezing with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The main exception will be our East Texas zones where isolated areas may experience a light freeze in the low 30s. Warmer but breezy weather is expected the remainder of the day, with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Moisture will remain scoured from the region on Tuesday, causing relative humidity to fall to 15-25% across much of the region. The warmer temperatures, low humidity, and breezy 15-20 mph southerly winds will result in an elevated wildfire threat west of the I-35 corridor. Wind gusts between 25-30 mph will be possible throughout the day. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 A warming trend will continue through the end of the workweek with afternoon highs returning to the 70s and 80s across the region. Moisture will begin a gradual return beginning Wednesday, which will keep any wildfire concerns to a minimum through the end of the week. As we head into the weekend, the upper ridge responsible for our quiet weather this week will be shunted off to the east as a West Coast trough swings towards the area, potentially becoming a cutoff low as it makes its final approach. Gulf moisture will return rather rapidly ahead of this system beginning Friday night, which will set the stage for rain chances to return as early as Saturday as the upper trough nears the area. Ensemble and deterministic guidance are leaning slightly more toward a slower cut-off low solution, with better rain chances likely holding off until Saturday night or possibly Sunday. However, we`ll stick closely to NBM for now given there`s still some lingering timing uncertainty. The severe weather threat is currently expected to be low, but there is some uncertainty in how much instability we`ll have to work with. If storms were to occur later (Sunday), our potential for severe weather could increase, and this is something we will need to monitor over the next few days. Otherwise, a cold front should bring an end to any rain chances late in the weekend/early next week, with cooler air arriving behind the front. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with just some scattered cirrus clouds. Winds will switch to southeast/south this evening with speeds 5-10 kts overnight. South winds will increase significantly after 15Z with gusts to/over 30 knots at times on Tuesday, before subsiding after 12/01Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 41 70 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 38 69 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 33 66 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 36 71 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 36 69 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 41 70 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 35 69 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 38 70 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 35 71 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 37 76 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...Shamburger