Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
397 FXUS64 KFWD 011314 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 814 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North and Central Texas through Friday morning as slow moving thunderstorms will bring heavy rain and isolated flash flooding to the region. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected this weekend into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 813 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 A line of showers and storms continues to make slow eastward progress, and will take most if not all of the morning to work its way across the I-35 corridor. Heavy rain and flooding are the primary concerns. A lull in precipitation may occur this afternoon, followed by a resurgence of activity this evening with the development of a low level jet. A Flood Watch hence remains in effect through Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Morning) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 An upper low currently situated over northeastern New Mexico will move slowly east along the Oklahoma/Kansas border over the next 24 hours, providing widespread showers and storms to Texas and the Southern Plains. Convection has evolved into a loosely organized QLCS tonight along an attendant Pacific front pushing east into the Big Country. Discrete convection out ahead of the main line at times became close to severe, and will have to keep a close eye on any storm which is able to maintain a rotating updraft. The environment is borderline for supporting severe weather with 500-1000 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE and 30-35kt of effective shear, but will see how the low level jet interacts with any of these discrete cells. We will also closely monitor the progression of the main line of storms as it advances eastward overnight, reaching the I-35 corridor by daybreak and eventually into East Texas Thursday afternoon. The slow forward advancement of the line and resulting south-to-north training of thunderstorms makes flooding the primary concern, and a Flood Watch remains in effect for the majority of the region through Friday morning. A severe wind gust or brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out, though waning instability and less than ideal 0-3km line-normal shear should hopefully keep the overall severe weather threat in check. The upper low will split in into two separate features Thursday evening, one an eastward propagating shortwave and the other a southwest moving closed low. After a brief lull in precipitation, the shortwave and attendant front will generate one last round of potentially heavy rain Thursday night into Friday morning, with the threat coming to an end as the cold front finally pushes through the forecast area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Cooler and damp weather is expected Friday and Saturday following the passage of a cold front. The damp weather can be attributed to the aforementioned upper low, which will have dropped southwest into West Texas. The resulting isentropic lift atop the frontal layer (around the east flank of the upper low) will generate mostly cloudy conditions and occasional rain showers Friday and Saturday. The heavy rain threat will be much lower, but any rain could aggravate ongoing flooding issues. Rain chances will come to an end late Sunday as the low weakens and drifts farther to the west. A shortwave trough dropping southeast through the Mid Mississippi Valley will send a secondary push of cooler, drier air through the region late Sunday or Monday, further drying things out and bringing pleasant weather to start the work week. Lows in the 50s and 60s along with highs in the lower 80s will be common for the first half of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 The DFW area TAFs will begin the period with ongoing convection, which will hang around for several hours this morning. KACT still has some time before the southern edge of this line of storms arrives (14-16Z). A break in the activity is likely this afternoon as a worked-over atmosphere attempts to recover, with additional development possible after 04Z tonight. Similarly, MVFR cigs may lift to VFR for a while this afternoon, but should return fairly quickly to MVFR tonight. A shift to north winds will occur Friday morning as a cold front eases through the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Spotter activation is not likely, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Services are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 70 79 67 / 100 60 70 60 Waco 85 70 80 67 / 90 80 80 70 Paris 85 68 79 65 / 80 90 80 60 Denton 81 68 79 63 / 100 50 50 50 McKinney 80 67 78 63 / 90 70 70 60 Dallas 82 71 80 67 / 100 70 70 70 Terrell 84 69 79 66 / 80 90 80 70 Corsicana 86 70 79 67 / 80 90 90 70 Temple 87 69 81 65 / 90 80 90 70 Mineral Wells 83 65 78 60 / 80 30 40 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ091>094-100>105- 115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30