Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
921 FXUS64 KFWD 271109 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 609 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday with highs generally in the 90s. - There will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. - An isolated severe weather threat will exist with any storms during the late afternoon and evening hours today and tomorrow. Small hail and gusty winds will be the main hazards. - Confidence continues to increase in a wetter pattern beginning mid next week with periods of heavy rain and cooler weather through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026 A mid-level ridge is currently building west into New Mexico, briefly placing North and Central Texas under a northwest flow regime aloft. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is meandering through the Central Plains. Today, a weak jet streak moving over the southern Rockies should accentuate the pressure trough across the southern High Plains and push its axis eastward, possibly inducing weak surface low development by the Sunday afternoon. With the help of diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorms should be able to develop mid- afternoon along the pressure trough or along any subtle boundaries left over from last night`s convection in the Big Country. The southeasterly mean flow will guide these storms into parts of North and Central TX through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Areas along and west of I-35 have a better chance (30-40%) of seeing storms. While the overall severe threat is low, a few storms may contain strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and small hail. The Central Plains shortwave will pivot around the building mid- level ridge and should move into Oklahoma tonight, weakening as it approaches. Lift from the shortwave should develop scattered showers across North TX overnight before winding down in the morning hours on Monday as the shortwave peters out. Isolated storms may develop across North TX during peak heating on Monday afternoon. Temperatures in the short term will continue to be above average for late September, with highs in the 90s on Sunday and Monday and lows in the 70s. Winds will generally be light, becoming breezy on Monday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens over North and Central TX. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026 The long-term portion of the forecast features one more day of well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather before an active weather pattern takes place during the second half of the week. We`re still looking at widespread rain and storm chances and cooler temperatures Wednesday through at least the first half of the weekend. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are still on the forecast and we will expand more below. Tuesday: Expect another unseasonably hot day with mostly dry conditions as a ridge axis moves over our region ahead of a large trough to our west. Afternoon highs will likely be in the mid to upper 90s with breezy southerly winds. Higher humidity will also result in heat index values a few degrees higher than the actual temperatures. A shower or two may sneak into our southern zones, but most of us will remain rain-free before rain chances begin to increase from west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wednesday through Next Weekend: Our attention remains on the mid to late week storm system, as it will align better with increasing moisture over the region. Overall, there`s a good consensus that a closed low will slowly track eastward from the Four Corners into the southern Plains. Despite the uncertainty regarding the exact track and timing along with the surface low and cold front, multiple waves of widespread precipitation are forecast through the end of the week. Additionally, abundant moisture both near the surface (depicted by the forecast PWs greater than 1.5") and upper level Pacific moisture (associated with the remnants of Hurricane Polo) will help enhance the convection over Texas during this time period. As a result, we could see the potential for heavy rain and flooding concerns across portions of North and Central TX. It is still to early to pinpoint the exact location of the heaviest precipitation each day, but it appears that the majority of the region will receive rainfall totals between 1-4" before the system exits our region over the weekend. If the forecast under this pattern materializes, we could see some locations receiving significantly higher rainfall amounts. We will continue to refine the details in the upcoming days, but it`s important to highlight the potential for some flooding concerns later in the week. Slightly cooler temperatures will also arrive alongside the rain and clouds with daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s Thursday through next Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026 VFR conditions are likely to prevail at all TAF sites aside from the low (20-30%) chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening. D10: Thunderstorms have a low potential (20-30% chance) to impact D10 airports late this afternoon and evening, primarily from 22-01Z. Confidence is high that isolated storms will develop west of the D10 TRACON, then move east toward the Metroplex in the late afternoon; however, there is still uncertainty in how far east storms will make it. Since the current most likely scenario is for storms to approach the I-35 corridor, we have opted to replace PROB30 with VCTS from 22-01Z at Metroplex sites. KACT: Although confidence is low in direct impacts from this afternoon`s storms, guidance has trended storms closer to Waco, prompting the need for VCTS from 23-01Z at KACT as well. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 75 95 76 / 20 20 20 0 Waco 96 74 97 74 / 10 10 10 0 Paris 92 69 91 70 / 20 20 20 0 Denton 96 72 96 74 / 20 20 20 0 McKinney 94 71 94 72 / 20 30 20 0 Dallas 96 76 96 77 / 20 20 20 0 Terrell 95 72 95 73 / 10 30 20 0 Corsicana 94 73 95 73 / 0 10 10 0 Temple 96 72 98 72 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 97 70 96 72 / 30 20 20 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fenske LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Fenske