Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
145 FXUS64 KFWD 281044 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 544 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures around 100 with little to no rain are expected from today through at least the middle of next week. - Fire threat will remain elevated into next week due to hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026 Radar imagery early this morning shows a few showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of Central Texas along/ahead of a weak boundary stretching from near Abilene to College Station. This activity should continue to shift southward out of the forecast area over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, another hot late August day is anticipated across North and Central Texas, with lows this morning in the 70s to around 80 and highs reaching 97-103 this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Some CAMs indicate an isolated shower or storm is possible this afternoon, mainly in Central Texas, but the chance appears too low to include anything above a 10% pop. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026 Rest of the forecast period looks to be hot and dry with little potential for any rain as the large upper level high pressure ridge that has dominated our weather since mid-July shifts back over the southern Plains. Kept temperatures near or slightly above NBM guidance as it has been underdoing highs a tad past few days. A drier low level airmass will keep heat index values below our heat advisory thresholds today and tomorrow, so for the first time in quite a while no heat products are warranted. However, from Sunday into next week our temperatures and/or heat indices look to reach near or above criteria for at least parts of the area, so more heat advisories will probably be needed next week. 00Z guidance does indicate a tropical wave moving westward along the Gulf Coast may enhance rain chances for South and Southeast Texas around the middle of next week, but for now any notable rain looks to stay south of us. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with just a few low or high clouds and easterly winds around 6 knots. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 78 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 100 75 100 76 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 99 71 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 100 74 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 102 79 102 80 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 100 73 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 99 75 99 76 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 99 74 100 75 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 101 71 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger