Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
722 FXUS64 KFWD 011048 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 548 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and warm weather continues today. Low rain chances return to the region Tuesday and Wednesday (~20-30% coverage). - Better rain chances arrive areawide Friday into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 Earlier convection to the west of the area has died out late this evening with just some remnant high cloud cover streaming across the region. Warm conditions can be expected with overnight lows in the mid 70s. Mid level ridging will meander across North Texas again today which will help suppress convective chances in our area and keep things warm. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal with highs in the mid 90s again today. A weak disturbance will slide southward through the Arklatex this afternoon and we`ll likely see scattered storms well to our east. Additionally, thunderstorms should be ongoing well to our north, but none of this activity is expected to directly impact North or Central Texas through the evening. Mostly clear skies can be expected tonight with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 By Tuesday, the mid level ridging will weaken a bit and a shortwave trough moving through the eastern CONUS will help send a weak back door cold front into the Arklatex by late afternoon. This front will have little impact on our temperatures but will likely serve as a focus for more widespread scattered showers and storms mainly to our northeast. Mid level flow will strengthen a bit during this time and should be from the northeast which would direct storm motions toward North Texas. We`ll likely see an uptick in scattered storms in our area late Tuesday afternoon and evening when we`ll have 20-30% PoPs. Strong afternoon heating and modest instability would support an isolated severe wind threat with any convection in our area. By Wednesday, an expansive area of surface high pressure will be in place across the southeast U.S. which should allow some slightly drier air to push into our far eastern counties. Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will spread out of northern Mexico into West Texas. This should help kick off scattered storms along a dryline well to our west. Some of this activity may push into our far western counties by late afternoon/evening. A similar setup is expected on Thursday with the best coverage of scattered storms across our western counties. Either of these days could feature a few strong storms with gusty winds and small hail. By Friday, stronger height falls will spread out of northern Mexico and across Central and North Texas ahead of the main shortwave trough. Our best rain chances across the region look like they`ll occur Friday afternoon into early Saturday as the bulk of the forcing overspreads the region, but there is still some timing spread amongst the guidance with the handling of the shortwave out of Mexico, so we`ll continue to tweak PoPs over the coming days. Rain chance will diminish by Sunday as the upper disturbance pulls away from the region. Temperatures will cool a bit closer to seasonal norms by Wednesday with additional cloud cover and rain chances and should remain there through the end of the week. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 VFR prevails across the region this morning under passing high cloud cover. Light south-southeast winds will continue through much of the day before becoming more easterly on Tuesday. No significant aviation concerns are expected today, but scattered storm chances will increase on Tuesday. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 74 94 75 / 0 0 20 30 Waco 93 75 93 73 / 0 0 20 30 Paris 93 72 89 69 / 0 10 20 20 Denton 95 73 93 72 / 0 0 20 30 McKinney 93 73 93 72 / 0 0 20 30 Dallas 95 76 94 74 / 0 0 20 30 Terrell 93 73 93 72 / 0 0 20 30 Corsicana 92 74 93 73 / 0 0 20 30 Temple 92 73 91 73 / 0 0 20 30 Mineral Wells 94 71 92 71 / 0 0 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$