Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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679 FXUS64 KFWD 251019 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 519 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Minor tweaks to this morning`s low temperatures (higher in the south, slightly cooler in the north due to rain-washed airmass). Otherwise, extended 20%-30% PoPs slightly further south and east per latest CAMs and mid level height falls across the northwest CWA. Overall synoptic/mesoscale set up for storms late today and this evening are described in the earlier discussion below. 05/Marty Previous Discussion: /Today and Sunday/ Mid level heights will slowly build today in response to a strong northern stream shortwave trough dropping south into the Intermountain West, which will then lift out across the Central and Northern Plains tonight. This will result in increased subsidence with a strengthening cap aloft outside of the Big Country into the Red River Valley and points north. This will mean a drier day overall with continued above normal temperatures and tropical- like humidity across the entire area. Highs will be in the lower 90s with dew point values in the 70s. This will put much of Central Texas right around 105 degrees, which is borderline Heat Advisory criteria and usually these are done when consecutive days of excessive heat conditions are expected. A last minute decision will be made regarding any heat highlights. A few CAMs are showing that the capping inversion may be weak enough for widely scattered, strong to severe discrete storms by early evening across the far northwest and Red River counties. This would be a very "conditional" risk wholly dependent on heating and being grazed by better large-scale ascent to the north. If a storm or two were to go up, high surface-based instability and 50 kt westerly deep layer shear could result in a brief 2-3 hour window during the early evening hours up across that area of the CWA. Very steep mid level lapse rates will remain confined west of here and combined with strengthening CINH east toward I-35, intensity and life-span of any storms would be much more short-lived than in previous days. We`ll continue to refine these low (10%-25%) rain chances in forecasts as we move through the morning hours into midday today. Otherwise, a breezy and warm night tonight with stratus mainly impacting Central and East Texas Sunday morning thanks to a strong, but more veered LLJ > 40 kts overnight. The shortwave trough lifting across the Plains toward the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Valley on Sunday will help mid level heights slowly fall across North Texas particularly. The main problem for storm coverage and development would be the continued cap around, as well as only a weak surface trough moving from the west. For now, I`ll have an isolated, late day chances across areas north of I-20. Again, another very "conditional" day and if a storm can go up, then reaching strong to severe limits wouldn`t be too hard to achieve. High temperatures will push the century mark for a few areas and this would match up with a few records achieved during the infamous heatwave of 1980. Something to watch. However, the eastward progressing trough (or dryline) will help to drop dew points much lower than seen the past week, so at least heat indices and humidity would be more tolerable to an extent. The main thing to keep in mind for the holiday weekend is to stay hydrated, wear light weight and colored clothing, and take frequent breaks from the outdoors when possible. 05/Marty && .LONG TERM... /Issued 214 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ /Monday and Beyond/ Much of the region will remain rain-free through the early portions of next week as dry, subsident air remains positioned over North and Central Texas behind a passing mid-level shortwave. A weak cold front will sink south of the Red River by Sunday evening bringing east-northeasterly winds to much of North Texas through Monday. Afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid-90s south of I-20 on Monday with highs in the upper 80s along the Red River north of that frontal boundary. Rain chances could return as early as Monday evening across portions of eastern North and Central Texas on the nose of strengthening 925-850mb warm-air advection. Additional daily chances for rain will return by the middle of next week as a dryline sharpens over West Texas and a series of disturbances round about the northern periphery of a building mid-/upper ridge over Mexico. Although it is a bit early to discuss severe weather impacts for the middle of next week, repeated rounds of thunderstorms could increase the potential for flash flooding concerns, especially over the areas that received the bulk of the rainfall this past week. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s and warm, humid overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s all of next week. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ The only change from the 06z TAF set was to delay stratus and BR development across all airports due to a convectively "washed" environment. This should be returned to environmental flow and MVFR cigs between 12z-15z this morning. Due to high uncertainty with regard to IFR cigs, I removed them for the time being due to this delay. TS chances still remain too uncertain and limited in coverage late today for any VCTS wording in D10 TAFs. Gusty S winds 10-15 mph will prevail by this afternoon and continue into tonight. 05/Marty && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 76 99 73 93 / 20 20 5 0 5 Waco 92 75 94 73 93 / 0 10 0 0 5 Paris 88 73 91 69 89 / 20 20 10 10 5 Denton 92 75 97 69 91 / 30 30 0 0 0 McKinney 90 76 95 71 90 / 20 20 5 5 5 Dallas 93 76 99 74 94 / 20 20 5 0 5 Terrell 90 74 93 72 90 / 5 20 10 5 5 Corsicana 92 74 95 75 93 / 0 10 5 0 5 Temple 92 74 94 73 94 / 0 10 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 94 74 98 68 93 / 30 30 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$