Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
191 FXUS64 KFWD 262353 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 653 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday with highs generally in the 90s. - There will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night. - An isolated severe weather threat will exist with any storms during the late afternoon and evening hours this evening and tomorrow. Hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards. - Confidence continues to increase in a wetter pattern beginning mid next week continuing into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 While above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend, our upper level pattern will continue to experience changes over the next couple of days that will pave the way for widespread rain chances and some cooler weather to finally arrive next week. Until then though, we will have to suffer through a few more days of summer heat with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Storm chances will return to western portions of the forecast area this afternoon and evening as an approaching shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft results in the development of scattered showers and storms to our west/northwest. There are still some discrepancies amongst latest short-term guidance members, owing to weak forcing. The highest areas of uncertainty are (1) timing of storm development - with guidance split between late afternoon or early evening, and (2) how intense/widespread the convection will be. Both of these factors will have implications on storm chances overnight into Sunday morning. On the other hand, regardless of how these details play out, the activity that`s expected this evening will be accompanied by an isolated severe weather threat. Hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards. Heading into the overnight hours, it`s uncertain how much activity we`ll see during this time period. Have maintained 20-30% PoPs across our western zones through the overnight period in the event convection lingers as some guidance suggests. Additionally, depending on how things evolve this evening and overnight, any residual outflow boundaries could serve as a focus for isolated shower/thunderstorm development Sunday morning. Have carried 20% PoPs into the morning hours across portions of North Texas to reflect the low potential for additional development. The uncertainty in the short-term forecast will continue to propagate into Sunday afternoon, as any additional convective potential will depend on the extent of the convection earlier in the day. Have broad-brushed PoPs across the area Sunday afternoon, as there will be a chance for another round of scattered showers and storms, but continued weak forcing will keep this activity across a rather broad area. Gusty winds and lightning will be the main concerns. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 A similar set up to Saturday evening is expected again Sunday evening, so there will be a chance for yet another round of scattered showers and storms. Should this round of showers and storms develop, it would be accompanied by an isolated severe weather threat, with hail and damaging winds expected to be the main hazards. Heading into early next week, we`ll likely see a break from any rain chances before a more active pattern takes shape for the remainder of the period. A strong upper low will begin to traverse the Southwest CONUS on Monday. This will have no effect on us just yet, with hot and generally rain-free weather expected to prevail prior to its arrival. Heading into the mid-week time period, we`ll begin to see an increase in rain chances as the upper low begins its final approach. However, long-range guidance has yet to achieve a consensus on the evolution of the upper low. Some guidance is more progressive, with rain chances beginning as early as Tuesday, while other guidance members are slower with the low`s arrival, holding rain chances off until Wednesday or even Thursday. Given the uncertainty, the forecast will continue to evolve/change as a consensus is reached within the next few days. Aside from the timing discrepancies, widespread rain is expected across the region once the upper low makes it`s arrival. Strengthening low level southerly winds are expected to tap into a plume of very rich Gulf moisture ahead of the upper low during the middle of the week, which will set the stage for very efficient rainfall rates. The upper low will likely push a Pacific front towards the region mid to late week, which will serve as a focus for the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms. This front may not make it through the region, with the cooler late-week temperatures more than likely a result of widespread rain/clouds. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through late week and even into the weekend, depending on how long the upper low lingers over the region. Latest guidance suggests the arrival of a strong cold front will bring an end to our rainy/active period sometime next weekend, though this is certainly subject to change over the next few days. With all of this said, heavy rainfall is expected to be the main concern throughout the week, given the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rain. The threat for flash flooding will likely increase with each round of showers and storms, despite our rainfall deficit the past couple months or so. While it`s still too early to discuss rainfall totals, it`s certainly worth monitoring over the next several days. While it`s also still rather early to assess any threat for severe weather, deep layer shear doesn`t appear to be particularly favorable later this week. Therefore, we`re currently not anticipating any organized threat for severe storms. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next several days for the latest information! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the TAF period at airports. Current TSRA between SPS/ABI are expected to dissipate prior to reaching D10 this evening. CAMs indicate additional SHRA/TSRA are possible in D10 on Sunday afternoon between 18-00Z, and will include a PROB30 mention of the low potential for TSRA and MVFR impacts at all Metroplex airports. ACT currently looks to remain south of any SHRA/TSRA for Sunday. Southeast winds up to 10 knots tonight will become more southerly on Sunday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 75 94 76 / 0 10 20 20 Waco 94 73 96 74 / 0 0 10 10 Paris 91 68 92 71 / 0 0 20 20 Denton 95 73 95 73 / 0 10 20 30 McKinney 94 72 94 72 / 0 10 20 30 Dallas 94 76 95 77 / 0 0 20 20 Terrell 93 71 95 73 / 0 0 20 20 Corsicana 89 71 95 73 / 0 0 10 10 Temple 92 71 96 73 / 0 0 10 10 Mineral Wells 98 71 96 71 / 10 20 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...Shamburger