Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
872 FXUS64 KFWD 161707 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms (15-20% chance) are expected again across portions of western North Texas this afternoon and evening. - A tropical wave is expected to bring scattered thunderstorms to portions of Southeast Texas and the Brazos Valley Thursday through Saturday. - For many, the upcoming weekend and next week will be the hottest of the summer so far, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values ranging from 100 to 109. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ An upper level ridge will be building into the region from the east today, but weak troughing will remain in place across the Big Country/western North Texas through the remainder of the day. As a result, isolated showers and storms will develop across these areas as we continue to destabilize this afternoon. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning would be the main hazards with this activity. Otherwise, rain-free conditions are expected across the rest of the area with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will climb into the triple digits for most locations today. A few locations will see heat index values between 105-107 degrees, but given we will be comfortably below Heat Advisory criteria tomorrow, we will forgo the issuance of an advisory since we will not meet the two-day criteria. Similar weather is expected on Thursday, but any rain chances will be associated with a weak tropical wave and confined to the Brazos Valley/Southeast Texas. A strengthening ridge will result in slightly warmer temperatures across North Texas, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s can be expected across Central Texas. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Night Onward/ A warming trend will continue through the remainder of the period. There will be additional chances for showers and storms (20-30% chance) across portions of Southeast Texas as the tropical wave continues to slowly move east. We`ll likely see some triple digit temperatures emerge across the Big Country during the second half of the upcoming weekend or early next week. Whether they`ll become more widespread remains up for debate, as this will largely depend on the evolution of the tropical wave. If we end up being on the hotter side, we may start getting into Heat Advisory territory, especially across eastern North and Central Texas Sunday onward. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ MVFR ceilings are now lifting to VFR, with low clouds expected to clear out over the next few hours. VFR will continue through the end of the period with south winds near 10-15 knots this afternoon and gusts as high as 20-25 knots. Wind speeds will decrease to 10 knots or less this evening. Barnes && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 77 98 76 97 / 10 0 0 0 0 Waco 93 72 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 93 75 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 5 Denton 96 75 99 73 99 / 20 5 0 0 0 McKinney 95 75 98 74 97 / 5 0 0 0 5 Dallas 96 77 99 76 98 / 5 0 0 0 5 Terrell 95 74 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 96 74 98 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 Temple 95 71 96 71 93 / 0 0 5 0 5 Mineral Wells 96 72 99 70 99 / 20 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$