Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
228 FXUS64 KFWD 021200 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 600 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 ...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog will be possible this morning across Central Texas. - A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move across North and Central Texas this evening into tonight. - Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Tuesday after the showers and storms move east. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 154 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Morning low clouds, along with patchy fog across Central Texas will give way to a warm afternoon across North and Central Texas. The ridge we had in place over the weekend will be shifting east today, however, enough subsidence coupled with increasing southwesterly low-level winds will drive temperatures in the mid to upper 80s - about 15-20 degrees above seasonal average. By the late afternoon, attention turns to a rapidly amplifying upper trough ejecting from the Desert Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and lee cyclogenesis will tighten the surface pressure gradient through the day, resulting in increasingly strong southerly winds. Sustained speeds of 15- 20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph will become common by the early afternoon and continue through the evening hours. With a layer of warm air aloft in place, most of North and Central Texas should remain capped and rain-free through much of the afternoon. The first opportunity for thunderstorm activity will be across northwestern portions of our region late in the afternoon as storms develop near the dryline. Initial thunderstorm development immediately to the northwest of our region will be the most favorable for discrete supercells given strong deep layer shear and roughly 1500 J/kg of instability. Any supercell during this initial stage would be capable of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. As the sun begins to set, storm coverage is expected to increase over our area as large-scale forcing for ascent arrives and thunderstorms begin to organize into a broken line or clusters of storms moving east. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern as convection becomes increasingly linear. If portions of the line acquire a northwest to southeast orientation, the low- level shear vector may become more favorably oriented relative to the convective line, supporting embedded rotating elements and the potential for a brief QLCS tornado or two. Although large hail cannot be ruled out, the main hail threat will be during the initial thunderstorm development before storm mode becomes more linear. Current timing favors the main line of thunderstorms reaching the I-35 corridor around 11pm tonight, with thunderstorms progressing steadily east overnight. Locally heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms, but the fast movement of the line of storms should keep the threat for flash flooding low. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 154 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 The line of thunderstorms will likely be exiting the region around 8am Tuesday as the front continues to push southeast. A much different weather regime will develop behind the front as drier air surges into the region. Skies will clear from west to east with strong pressure rises expected. This should allow for breezy winds out of the northwest through much of Tuesday afternoon with occasional wind gusts to near 25 mph. Temperatures will also be cooler, generally in the lower to middle 70s. High pressure will build into the Southern Plains Tuesday night, allowing winds to weaken and temperatures to decrease into the 40s and lower 50s by Wednesday morning. Pleasant fall weather will continue Wednesday with abundant sunshine, low humidity and highs mainly in the lower and middle 70s. The remainder of the workweek should remain largely quiet. Another weather system is expected to cross the Plains late Thursday into Friday, but the better moisture and forcing should remain north of our region. The main sensible impact will be a reinforcing push of cooler air, holding highs on Friday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we approach this upcoming weekend, forecast confidence decreases as guidance continues to diverge on the evolution of another trough approaching the Southern Plains. For now, a mostly dry and near-seasonal temperature forecast is favored. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Concerns: MVFR ceilings this morning in Central Texas. Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and evening. Scattered high clouds are moving across North Texas this morning, helping to keep low clouds from developing in North Texas. As the clouds continue to shift east, low ceilings are looking most likely across KACT with a much lower potential in North Texas. Given MVFR probabilities have decreased below 20% in North Texas, the previously forecasted MVFR ceilings has been replaced with a scattered layer of low clouds. Any low clouds that develop this morning will quickly lift and mix out by the afternoon. Winds will quickly pick up out of the south, gusting to near 30 kts much of the day. Showers and storms will develop across western OK and far western North Texas this afternoon. This activity will grow upscale into a line of storms and move towards the I-35 corridor through the late afternoon and evening hours. The thunderstorm activity will enter D10 closer to 03z and progress through the region from west to east. Latest models have the line of storms impacting the North Texas TAF sites between 05-08z and KACT between 08-11z. Gusty and erratic winds are expected with the passing of the storms, along with decreased visibility and ceilings. The actual front will lag by a few hours, likely moving through North Texas TAF sites closer to 09z and KACT by 11z. Gusty winds will continue behind the front out of the northwest with gusts between 25-30 kts. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon and evening across parts of North and Central Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 63 73 54 / 0 80 10 0 Waco 86 65 75 51 / 0 90 50 0 Paris 85 66 74 50 / 0 90 60 0 Denton 85 59 72 46 / 10 80 0 0 McKinney 85 62 73 49 / 0 90 20 0 Dallas 87 64 74 55 / 0 90 20 0 Terrell 86 65 74 50 / 0 90 50 0 Corsicana 86 67 75 53 / 0 90 70 0 Temple 87 66 76 52 / 0 90 60 0 Mineral Wells 85 57 72 49 / 20 80 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez