Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
694 FXUS64 KFWD 040657 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic storm chances will continue through the weekend with the highest coverage Friday night through Sunday. The severe weather threat is low, but strong storms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Afternoon) Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 This morning will be quiet for most, outside of some isolated warm- advection induced showers spreading north into Central Texas. Slightly better chances for showers and storms will occur over this afternoon as diurnal heating ramps up, primarily for areas near and east of I-35/I-35W where better moisture is located. With no real forcing mechanism at play other than nebulous diurnal heating, coverage will remain quite spotty. Not everyone will observe rain later today, though anyone that is may be impacted by lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will be fairly mild for early June, with highs peaking in the 80s. Coverage of showers and storms will dissipate over the evening with little to no rain expected overnight. Some isolated showers may once again surge northward tomorrow morning, but the better window for rain will be a bit later towards the afternoon and evening. A closed mid-level low to our west/southwest will continue to move east into far West Texas/NE Mexico during the day, spreading upper level lift a bit closer to the region. With the best lift remaining west of us tomorrow afternoon, diurnal heating will again the main driver for afternoon convection. Unlike today, abundant moisture will be spread further west, meaning the entirety of North and Central Texas will have at least a low chance for rain. However, coverage will remain scattered and not everyone will see a shower or storm tomorrow afternoon. Any storm that develops would have a threat for lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 The closed low will gradually swing to the northeast across Texas and into Oklahoma late Friday through Sunday morning, spreading increased lift overhead. Expect an increase in coverage of on-and- off showers and storms during this time period, spreading from west to east. The overall severe threat during this time remains low, though a couple stronger storms could produce gusty, erratic winds. However, isolated marginally severe wind gusts will not be out of the question. PWATs of around 2" will also promote very efficient rainfall producers, and those areas that see multiple rounds of storms would have a better threat for minor flooding. The low will eventually shift to our northeast, exiting towards the Midwest towards the end of the weekend. Upper-level ridging will begin to build in behind the departing low, generally stunting additional chances for rain heading into this upcoming week. With more subsident air overhead, an uptick in temperatures is also expected. Afternoon highs this next week will feel a bit warmer, peaking into the 90s region-wide by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 A surge of MVFR stratus is expected to spread over the TAF sites near or slightly before daybreak (10-12Z), lingering through much of the morning before lifting/scattering back to VFR by this afternoon. Spotty showers and storms will likely develop for areas near and east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon, but direct impacts are too uncertain at this time to nail down, so have introduced a window of VCTS this afternoon between 21-00Z for D10 and 20-00Z for ACT. Will continue to keep an eye on future guidance for any higher confidence of TSRA impacts, but this will likely be a wait/watch and see scenario. Any precipitation will wane with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Otherwise, expect southeasterly winds to persist over the next 24-30 hours. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 72 87 73 / 30 20 20 50 Waco 84 71 84 72 / 40 30 20 60 Paris 82 70 84 71 / 50 20 30 30 Denton 86 72 86 72 / 20 10 20 50 McKinney 85 71 85 72 / 30 20 20 50 Dallas 88 72 88 73 / 30 20 20 50 Terrell 85 70 86 72 / 40 20 20 40 Corsicana 86 72 87 73 / 40 20 20 50 Temple 85 71 85 72 / 40 30 30 70 Mineral Wells 86 70 85 70 / 10 10 30 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater