Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
736 FXUS64 KFWD 142244 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 544 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through this evening with hot and dry weather expected into next week. - Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 533 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Radar shows a few showers and thunderstorms have spread northwestward into our far southern counties this afternoon along/ahead of the daily Gulf seabreeze activity. This convection will remain quite sparse in coverage, however, so will keep pops at 10 percent or less but extend them further northwest to a Copperas Cove to Waco to Athens line. No other changes made to forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Hot and dry weather will continue into this weekend with little chance for rainfall and a continued threat for grass fires. The rest of today will feature mostly sunny skies and temperatures climbing to near 100 degrees with breezy southerly winds. These winds will relax some later tonight into Saturday as the pressure gradient across the Southern Plains relaxes a bit. Otherwise, mid level ridging will continue to build across the southern Plains through Saturday with highs again expected to top 100 degrees in many locations. Even with deep vertical mixing occurring, dewpoints will likely still remain elevated enough to warrant additional heat advisories into the weekend. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Little change in the forecast is expected through next week with a 598 dm ridge axis centered directly over North Texas by Sunday supporting an increase in high temperatures. This ridge will remain parked over the Southern Plains through next week keeping large scale subsidence in place and rain chances near zero. Highs will likely top 105 degrees in some locations by Monday and Tuesday requiring additional heat headlines. Along with the hot and dry weather will be a continued threat for grass fire starts across the region through next week. Despite slightly lower wind speeds, a prolonged period of hot and dry weather is supporting a notable drop in live fuel moisture. These conditions will favor an active period of grass fire activity with little relief in site over the next week. Dunn && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected again this TAF period with just a few/sct low level clouds and cirrus along with south winds around 15 knots. Isolated SHRA/TSRA have developed southeast of ACT, but activity looks to stay well east of the airport and no impacts are anticipated. Overnight, MVFR cigs will again make a run for ACT and southeast D10 in the 10-15Z timeframe. HREF low cig probabilities are very low at D10 airports and will not include any mention there. Probs for MVFR cigs are higher at ACT but only for a brief time similar to this morning, so will keep mention at just scattered at 1.5k ft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 81 102 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 77 101 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 78 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 79 100 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 78 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 101 81 103 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 77 100 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 76 100 73 100 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 75 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107- 118>123-133>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...Shamburger