Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
931 FXUS64 KFWD 130645 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 145 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas this afternoon. Heat indices of up to 106 can be expected. - Hot and dry conditions will continue into the upcoming work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Recent water vapor imagery portrays an eastward migration of the anticyclonic flow associated with the 594dam 500mb subtropical ridge currently centered over New Mexico. This is consistent with the global model suite, which depicts amplification of the mid/upper level cyclone over the Pacific Northwest and a continued eastward translation of the shortwave over the Mid-South. The region will be void of any notable surface features as the ridge moves overhead, which, when coupled with synoptic subsidence, will result in mostly clear skies and dry conditions as is seen on satellite imagery tonight (aside from some convective cloud debris near the Red River associated with decaying thunderstorms across Central and Northern Oklahoma). A few of the CAMs have some sea breeze activity approaching the Brazos Valley late tomorrow afternoon. Not expecting this to survive into our southern counties. This overall pattern also means that temperatures will remain around 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Despite strong diurnal mixing during the afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to hold in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area. Paired with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, heat indices will breach 105 in many spots, warranting an extension of the Heat Advisory for most of North and Central Texas for the day on Sunday. Hot and dry conditions will persist into next week. An increasing pressure gradient between a surface low over the Northern High Plains and ridging over the Southeast will drive winds up to around 15 kts primarily west of the I-35 corridor on Monday. RH values in the 35% range aren`t overly concerning, though the potential for grass fire starts may be slightly elevated. Dornsife && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Well above normal temperatures and a lack of rainfall will continue through the end of the week as persistent mid level ridging remains in place across the Southern Plains and southeastern CONUS. By the end of the week, the center of the ridge will become squeezed between a strong trough moving out of the Intermountain West and a slow westward moving upper trough over the northern Gulf. As mid level heights decrease, we`ll see temperatures fall a few degrees over the latter part of the week into next weekend. A cold front will also slide south through the Plains during this time with convection initially remaining to our north. There is still some consistency among the medium range guidance for another front to slide into Texas by early next week with some cooler weather and increasing rain chances. Dunn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 KACT: Forecast soundings are suggestive of some low ceilings moving in around 09Z. There are some ragged low clouds beginning to develop across the Hill Country as of 0600Z, where better moisture resides amidst some orographic uplift. The HRRR keeps these largely southwest of the terminal, however satellite trends will continue to be monitored. VFR conditions will ultimately prevail for both ACT and the D10 terminals. Southerly winds around 10 kts will undergo their diurnal variation, veering to SSE during the day then backing to SSW tonight. Fair weather cumulus of bases ~7 kft can be expected by mid- afternoon. Dornsife && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 99 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 100 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 101 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 101 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 100 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 101 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$