Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
011 FXUS64 KFWD 021050 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 550 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North and Central Texas through Friday evening as efficient rain producing showers will bring heavy rain and isolated flash flooding to the region. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms along with below normal highs are expected this weekend. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected next week along with mostly clear skies and much drier weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 The Flood Watch has been extended through 7 PM to account for the continuation of occasional rain showers throughout the day. Chances for thunder today are pretty low given the weak instability, but in such a moisture rich environment, showers will be capable of dropping 1-2 inches of rain in a short period of time. Otherwise, cloudy and slightly cooler conditions are expected this weekend following the passage of a weak cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 The upper low responsible for Thursday`s heavy rain has since split into 2 separate features, the first a positive-tilt shortwave headed east towards the Ohio Valley and the second a closed low retrograding into far West Texas. Together the systems will assist in the southward push of a weak cold front, which will slowly sag south through the region over the next 12 hours. Ahead of the front, a modest 25kt low level jet should aid in the development of scattered showers and storms overnight through Friday morning. Coverage is expected to be less that what transpired on Thursday, but slow storm motions could still lead to isolated instances of flooding. A weakening trend is expected Friday afternoon, but isolated thunderstorms will still be possible in the vicinity of the the surface front. Because of the widespread 1-4" inches of rain received over the past 36 hours and the resulting saturation of soils, will go ahead and extend the Flood Watch through 7PM Friday for now, as isolated additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible. With that being said, most areas will likely experience additional totals of around an inch or less. A lull in activity will occur Friday evening, but another round of elevated convection is possible Friday night into Saturday morning as isentropic ascent develops over the frontal layer around the eastern periphery of the West Texas low. Showers and storms will be once again scattered in nature, but the stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Will let the day shift reassess and make any further decisions regarding any additional extensions to the Flood Watch if needed. Activity will dissipate Saturday afternoon as the front pushes into the northwest Gulf and the West Texas upper low weakens. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 One final opportunity for rain will occur on Sunday as an intense Great Lakes trough pushes a secondary cold front through the region. Moisture will be limited and most of the precipitation will occur across Central Texas. All activity will come to an end Sunday night as dry, subsident air filters south through the forecast area. The result will be pleasant weather to start the work week, with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s and highs in the 80s. A warming trend can be expected mid to late week as a strong 500mb ridge over the Desert Southwest expands eastward across the Southern Plains. The second half of next week will still feature pleasant nights with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s, but plentiful sun and subsidence associated with the ridge will push afternoon temperatures into the upper 80s to middle 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Ceilings will vary from IFR to MVFR throughout the day today as a moisture-rich environment remains in place and a weak cold front eases south through the area. A pre-frontal trough has already shifted winds to light northeast in the Metroplex, with actual FROPA expected this afternoon. Thunderstorms have been removed from the TAFs due to the absence of any lightning overnight into this morning and a lack of instability, but visibility reductions in moderate to heavy rain may still occur. A break in precipitation this afternoon and evening will be followed by additional development of rain showers overnight into Saturday morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Services are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 68 76 67 / 70 70 60 30 Waco 79 68 79 67 / 90 70 60 50 Paris 80 66 77 64 / 70 40 50 30 Denton 79 65 76 65 / 60 70 60 30 McKinney 78 65 76 63 / 70 70 60 30 Dallas 80 69 77 68 / 80 70 60 40 Terrell 79 67 77 65 / 90 60 60 40 Corsicana 79 68 79 66 / 90 60 60 50 Temple 80 67 80 66 / 90 60 50 50 Mineral Wells 79 62 75 62 / 60 70 60 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ103>107-117>123-130>135- 143>147-156>161-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30