600
FXUS64 KFWD 151109
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
509 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend will continue through the rest of the
  workweek with low rain chances in Central and East Texas on
  Friday.

- Very cold, Arctic air will arrive behind a cold front this
  weekend. It will be cold through at least the middle of next
  week. Low temperatures will likely be in the teens and 20s with
  afternoon highs only in the 20s and 30s for many areas Sunday
  and Monday.

- We continue to monitor the potential for winter weather early
  next week. Latest guidance is slightly more favorable for
  wintry precipitation, but there is still significant uncertainty
  in how much moisture will return ahead of this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Light rain showers will continue to affect our far southeastern
zones through the early morning hours. Cloud cover in this area
has significantly inhibited radiational cooling, with Central
Texas lows only falling into the mid 40s while clearer areas to
the north have seen readings as low as the mid 20s. Cloud cover
will make a steady exit to the east/southeast during the day, as
dry northerly flow accompanies a weak surface front/trough
southward through the area.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday/

Isolated rain showers will continue spreading across parts of
Central Texas early this morning within a swath of modest low-
level moisture return. We will retain 10% rain chances roughly
south of a Temple to Palestine line through sunrise before this
low-level moisture axis is shunted southeastward with the arrival
of a very weak cold front. The associated cloud cover with this
activity will also contribute to a sizable temperature disparity
this morning since it is inhibiting radiational cooling across
Central Texas. Morning lows will range from the upper 20s in North
Texas where radiational cooling conditions are optimal, to the
low/mid 40s in Central Texas.

Otherwise, the aforementioned cold front which will move through
the area during the next 12 hours will largely go unnoticed aside
from a shift to light northerly winds around 5 mph during the
day. Minimal cold advection will allow temperatures to continue
moderating with highs in the mid 50s to around 60 this afternoon.
Flow will already return to west/southwest on Thursday with sunny
skies, and highs should easily climb into the 60s as a result.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 225 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/
/Thursday Night Onward/

A warming trend will continue through the end of the work week as
warm air advection persists across the region. Friday highs will
range from around 60 near Paris to the lower 70s across the
western-most locations, or 5 to 15 degrees above normal for mid
January. A pattern change this weekend will bring an end to the
warming trend, however, with a shift back to well-below normal
temperatures for the rest of the period.

An impressive longwave trough comprised of multiple shortwaves
will deepen across North America this weekend, forcing the next
southward surge of arctic air through the Plains. The front will
push through North and Central Texas Friday night, continuing
through the rest of the state and well out into the Gulf on
Saturday. There will be a slight chance of rain showers along the
front, but the more significant impact will be gusty north winds
and an abrupt drop in temperature. Saturday`s highs should still
reach the 40s and 50s, but temperatures will plummet overnight
with lows in the teens and 20s by daybreak Sunday. North winds of
10 to 20 MPH will produce dangerous wind chills in the teens and
single digits during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday.

The sun will do its best to warm the surface on Sunday, but cold
air advection and the arctic nature of the airmass will largely
offset insolation, keeping afternoon highs generally in the 30s
(perhaps a few northwest counties topping in the upper 20s).
Temperatures will then fall steadily after sunset, leading to
another brutal night with Monday morning lows in the teens to
lower 20s. Persistent north winds will drop wind chills into the
single digits, which will likely warrant a Cold Weather Advisory
for low wind chill when the time comes. A few counties may even
approach "Extreme Cold" Warning criteria and we will assess that
over the weekend.

Up to this point, conditions are expected to remain dry, with
dangerous cold remaining the sole concern through most of the
holiday weekend. Things begin to get interesting, however, later
in the day on MLK Day as a positive tilt shortwave rotates around
the southwest flank of the longwave trough. First, the positioning
of the shortwave over the Desert Southwest will draw a second
surge of arctic air south through the Plains, reinforcing the
bitter cold airmass already in place. Secondly, all operational
models agree on strengthening isentropic upglide as the shortwave
makes its approach from the west. The result will likely be a
round of winter precipitation somewhere across the region during
the Monday night to Tuesday night time frame.

At this point, model guidance continues to advertise varying
probabilities of all winter precip types from Texas eastward
through the Gulf Coast region (with the heaviest focus across the
Gulf Coast at this time). Confidence in exact locations,
precipitation types, and amounts remains quite low at this time.
That being said, probabilities have increased enough to introduce
some low chances of snow around the day 6-7 period, which will be
added with this forecast package (along with neighboring offices).
Will know more and be able to pin more details down later in the
week and over the weekend.

Precipitation will move off to the east on Wednesday, but
temperatures will likely remain well below normal for the rest of
next week. With the upper level pattern remaining unsettled,
additional opportunities for winter precipitation may arrive
towards the end of next week depending on how much of the cold
arctic air remains. Will take a closer look at that in the in the
coming days.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

VFR will prevail at D10 TAF sites with a few mid and high clouds
present during the daytime. A lower cloud deck near 6 kft will
persist at Waco for a few more hours before being shunted off to
the east/southeast later today. Otherwise, light and variable
winds will become predominantly northerly during the next few
hours as a diffuse surface cold front makes its way southward.
Speeds will remain less than 8 kts through the period, and winds
should begin returning to west/southwesterly after 06z tonight.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  34  64  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                58  33  64  40  64 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               55  31  60  36  59 /   0   0   0   0  20
Denton              56  30  63  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            57  31  63  38  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas              58  34  64  42  64 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             58  33  62  38  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           58  36  64  41  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              57  33  64  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       58  31  64  37  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$