Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
668 FXUS64 KFWD 291146 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 546 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger through daybreak Saturday. Severe weather is not expected. - A strong cold front will move through the region this afternoon and evening with much colder temperatures behind it. Wind chills on Sunday morning will drop into the mid teens to mid 20s. - Some light rain will return Monday into Monday night. The potential for any light sleet or freezing rain remains low, but we can`t rule out a brief window Monday morning where light precipitation coincides with temperatures in the lower 30s. No impacts are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 130 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to push eastward across North and East Texas early this morning. Several storms within this activity exhibited some transient organization earlier, with recent RAP analysis and radar trends supporting pockets of 400-700 J/kg of MUCAPE still in place near the I-35 corridor and extending eastward. However, the severe threat should remain minimal through the remainder of the morning due to modest instability and weak low-level lapse rates. Rainfall coverage will gradually diminish west to east toward daybreak as the forcing from the mid-level shortwave pivots east of the area. Areas along and east of I-35 may still contend with lingering showers through mid-morning, but most of the region should trend drier by midday. Any breaks in cloud cover Saturday afternoon will be short-lived, however, as a much more consequential cold front enters the picture. The front, currently sitting over southwestern Kansas, will race into North Texas during the afternoon hours and surge through the remainder of the region Saturday evening. A pre-frontal zone of ascent and modest destabilization (via steep mid-level lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s) will support renewed convective development along and just ahead of the boundary. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, the southeastern half of the forecast area could see an isolated strong to marginally severe storm during the evening hours. Any such storms would pose a risk for hail and gusty winds. Latest HREF guidance support MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg across this corridor prior to frontal passage. Behind the front, strong cold air advection will be underway with gusty north winds (20-30 mph with higher gusts) ushering in sharply colder air. Temperatures will fall quickly through the evening and overnight hours, reaching the upper 20s across the Red River Valley by sunrise Sunday. Wind chill values in the upper teens to lower 20s will be common across the northern half of the area by daybreak, with mid to upper 20s farther south. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 130 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Sunday will be notably colder across North and Central Texas, with highs only in the 40s for most areas. Cloud cover may linger across the southern half of the region through the day, while clearer skies develop north of the I-20 corridor as drier air deepens in the post-frontal environment. The brisk north wind will add to the chill, particularly during the morning hours. Monday continues to look like the next window for precipitation as a progressive mid-level trough ejects out of the Four Corners and tracks eastward across the Plains. Despite the cold surface airmass, current guidance suggests most precipitation will fall during the warmer part of the day, with surface temperatures well above freezing. Forecast soundings and ensemble temperature distributions continue to show the highest likelihood is for rain, although a brief period of sleet or freezing rain near the Red River Monday morning cannot be completely ruled out. Confidence remains low in any impactful wintry weather given the expected timing and marginal thermal profiles. Beyond Monday, a slow warming trend will commence under increasingly zonal flow aloft and gradually moderating surface temperatures. Daytime highs will climb into the 50s and 60s by midweek, with lows moderating into the mid 30s and 40s. Model spread increases by Thursday and Friday, particularly regarding the potential for another system to bring rain to the region. Some ensemble members hint at deeper troughing and a return of Gulf moisture toward the end of the week, but predictability remains low at this time. For now, low-end PoPs (20-30%) will be maintained across primarily Central Texas on Thursday, with the remainder of the area trending drier through Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 MVFR ceilings are in place at all terminals this morning with a continued trend of slowly lowering cloud bases expected through midday. A brief period of IFR conditions remains possible between 15-18Z, with recent upstream observations and decreasing LAMP probabilities supporting a more limited window with reduced confidence in widespread impacts. Ceilings should lift into the low MVFR range this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. A narrow band of convection is still anticipated along the front, which will move through the D10 airspace between 22-00Z. A brief VCTS has been retained for this potential, followed by a rapid wind shift to the north-northwest and gusts of 25-30 kts. Skies will gradually clear overnight, but post-frontal north winds will remain breezy into Sunday morning. KACT will see similar trends with a slightly delayed FROPA timing closer to 00-03Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 32 45 35 / 50 20 0 10 Waco 72 36 46 37 / 60 40 0 20 Paris 56 29 45 32 / 80 30 0 10 Denton 68 27 44 30 / 40 10 0 10 McKinney 62 30 44 33 / 60 20 0 10 Dallas 67 32 45 36 / 60 20 0 10 Terrell 63 32 45 34 / 70 40 0 20 Corsicana 67 37 48 37 / 70 50 0 20 Temple 73 37 48 34 / 50 40 0 20 Mineral Wells 69 30 48 33 / 20 10 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12