Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
662 FXUS64 KFWD 161814 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 114 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather will continue through tomorrow. - A cold front will bring a chance of storms (20-40%) on Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown on Sunday. A few strong storms are possible east of I-35. - Warm and dry weather returns early next week, followed by another cold front around the middle of the week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday night/ Our next weather-making upper-level low is currently situated over the Upper Colorado River Basin east of the Wasatch Range. A preceding shortwave trough is currently ejecting out of northern Mexico causing a surge of mid/high-level clouds to spread over our forecast area at this midday hour. This initial shortwave will not bring any notable weather change outside of slightly lower high temperatures this afternoon due to the high cloud cover. Expect afternoon highs in the 80s regionwide today. As the western CONUS upper low continues its trek toward the Great Plains, the local surface pressure gradient will tighten over North and Central Texas allowing for breezy south winds and a period of greater quality moisture return to occur Friday into Friday night. Increasing south flow and mostly sunny skies will nudge temperatures back into the upper 80s and low 90s Friday afternoon. Increasing humidity will help to limit the overall fire weather threat, but localized areas of elevated concern may arise Friday afternoon along and west of Highway 281 where afternoon RH is still expected to fall below 35% and south winds may gust upwards of 20-25 mph. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday Morning and Beyond/ Enhanced moisture transport will draw upper 60s dewpoints and low stratus over much of North and Central Texas by early Saturday morning. A few isolated warm-advection showers cannot be ruled out during the morning hours beneath a stout capping inversion near 750mb. By Saturday morning, a cold front should also extend across northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle with a Pacific front/dryline extending southward into the Big Country. There is still a bit of variance in the evolution of the overall synoptic pattern into Saturday being offered by the current suite of medium-range guidance. The deterministic GFS solution (less likely) is highlighting a quicker, deeper system shifting over the Southern Plains during the day Saturday and would bring shower and thunderstorm chances earlier in the day across much of North Texas. The more likely solution, supported by the NAM and RRFS is a slower, shallower system with a band of scattered showers and storms developing along the cold front later Saturday evening into Saturday night generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. The greatest potential for a couple of stronger storms capable of producing hail and gusty winds will reside northeast and east of the Metroplex late Saturday where the best moisture/lift/instability/shear are expected to overlap. We will be fine tuning these location and timing details as we get within 48 hours of this event and within range of more high-resolution convective-allowing model guidance. This system`s cold front will push through all of North and Central Texas by early Sunday morning ushering in a drier, cooler airmass. Sunday will feature breezy north-northeast winds and high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, a much-anticipated reprieve from the mid-October heat we have been experiencing. A quick warm-up back into the upper 80s and low 90s will occur Monday as upper ridging briefly builds in behind the departing trough. However, ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to highlight a more progressive pattern by midweek next week, bringing a series of upper-level disturbances across the Plains and potentially multiple frontal passages during the middle to latter portions of next week. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period at all North and Central Texas terminals. South-southeast winds at 7-12 kts will continue through the remainder of today and tonight with SCT to BKN mid/high-level clouds streaming overhead. MVFR stratus will nudge into portions of Central Texas early Friday morning, potentially impacting KACT for a few hours after sunrise. Langfeld && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 67 88 71 91 / 0 5 0 5 30 Waco 84 64 87 70 91 / 0 5 5 0 20 Paris 86 64 87 68 88 / 0 5 5 5 40 Denton 85 62 87 68 90 / 0 5 0 10 30 McKinney 86 64 87 69 88 / 0 5 5 5 40 Dallas 86 67 89 71 92 / 0 5 5 5 30 Terrell 87 63 88 68 90 / 0 5 5 0 30 Corsicana 88 65 89 70 91 / 5 5 10 0 30 Temple 85 62 88 68 91 / 0 5 10 0 20 Mineral Wells 86 62 90 67 93 / 0 0 5 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$