Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
545 FXUS64 KFWD 280730 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 230 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms are ongoing across portions of North Texas this early Monday morning. Additional storms will be possible this afternoon, mainly across western portions of Central Texas, some of which could produce small hail and gusty winds. - A more active weather pattern is expected this week with periods of widespread rain and storms beginning early Wednesday and continuing through next weekend. - Widespread heavy rainfall is increasingly likely Wednesday through late week, increasing the potential for localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 156 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 The large-scale pattern remains rather amplified across the CONUS early this morning. A potent low pressure system remains across New England with broad troughing extending southwestward into the Mississippi Valley. Farther south, high pressure centered over Mexico is helping maintain northwest flow aloft across North and Central Texas. Meanwhile, a deep upper low continues to dig south near the California coast, while Hurricane Polo moves toward northwest Mexico. The deep tropical moisture associated with Polo has yet to reach our area, but its eventual arrival will become increasingly important by the middle of the week. For today, another shortwave embedded within the northwest flow will move across the region. At the surface, persistent south to southeast winds will continue transporting low-level moisture northward while temperatures climb into the lower and middle 90s. Convective potential will increase during the afternoon as daytime heating coincides with the approaching shortwave. High-resolution guidance generally favors two corridors for development: one across the Big Country and western portions of Central Texas, and another across East Texas. A moisture gradient near 700 mb, separating deeper moisture to the south from drier air farther north, may help focus convection across portions of the forecast area. The thermodynamic environment should feature MLCAPE approaching 1500-2000 J/kg with roughly 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear. This is sufficient for a few organized multicells and perhaps a stronger storm or two, although the environment does not favor a widespread severe-weather episode. Small hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rain will be the primary hazards with the strongest activity. Storm coverage should decrease quickly after sunset as instability wanes and the passing shortwave moves east. A quiet and mild night will follow with continued southerly winds and overnight lows mostly in the lower and middle 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 The stage is set for a pattern change beginning Wednesday that will bring heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding to North and Central Texas, as well as slightly cooler temperatures through the weekend. An upper-level trough currently moving onto the California coast will advance eastward this week, kicking out the ridge over New Mexico that has brought above-average temperatures to our area. Meanwhile, Hurricane Polo should make landfall Monday in Baja California and move northeastward, and its remnants are expected to merge with the upper-level trough. By Wednesday morning, large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, Polo`s remnant moisture, and low-level moisture advection will yield a north-south corridor of anomalously high PW values (2.0-2.2+ inches) over Texas that will propagate eastward into our area. Additionally, a jet streak will round the base of the upper trough on Wednesday, placing our area within its right entrance region by Wednesday night and thus adding more forcing for ascent. This axis of favorable lift and moisture will move eastward along and ahead of a front, promoting widespread rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday. Model guidance is indicating 2-4" storm totals with higher amounts of 6+ inches possible (~10% chance), reflected by a notable shift-of-tails signal on Thursday. WPC has issued a Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Risk of excessive rainfall for much of North and Central TX on both Wednesday and Thursday to highlight the flash flood potential with this system. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing and placement of the heaviest rainfall, but the dynamical setup appears to favor late Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the Big Country and western North Texas. This is subject to change as the forecast comes into focus over the next few days. After starting out in the low-to-mid 90s on Tuesday, temperatures will be on a general downward trend (highs dropping into the 80s and lows into the 60s) due to the rainfall and a likely frontal passage behind the system. An upper low may cut off from the broader flow on Friday, extending rain chances into this weekend before another shortwave boots the system out. PoPs slowly trend downward after Thursday night given the uncertainty with this cutoff low, but we`ll have at least a chance (>30%) of showers and storms into Sunday, possibly resulting in an additional inch or two of rain. For this reason, WPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall over our area on Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 156 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period outside of convection. Southeast winds between 5-10 kts will continue through the early morning hours. Showers and storms continue north and northeast of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex TAF sites. This activity has slowly shifted to the southeast with the bulk of the precipitation missing the vicinity range rings. Through the next couple of hours, expect this activity to weaken, leaving behind a few remnant showers. There will be a low chance for a few showers to migrate into the TAF sites, mainly between 07-12z. After 12z, expect southerly winds to continue across the region with no major ceiling/visibility concerns. In the afternoon, expect scattered storms to develop well west of the D10 airspace. Little to no impacts are expected within D10. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 74 95 76 / 20 10 0 0 Waco 94 73 95 75 / 10 10 0 10 Paris 89 68 93 72 / 30 0 10 0 Denton 91 73 95 74 / 20 10 0 10 McKinney 89 70 94 73 / 30 10 10 0 Dallas 92 75 96 77 / 20 10 0 0 Terrell 92 70 95 72 / 30 10 0 0 Corsicana 92 71 95 73 / 20 10 0 0 Temple 93 72 97 73 / 10 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 91 71 94 73 / 20 10 0 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Fenske AVIATION...Hernandez