Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
349 FXUS64 KFWD 141700 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms may produce locally heavy rain through this evening. - Isolated storms are expected again on Tuesday, followed by seasonable weather with little to no rain the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ Scattered showers across North Texas continue to dwindle, with most of this activity primarily tied to an MCV currently centered over northern parts of the Metroplex. The activity across Central Texas this morning has since dissipated, but another round of scattered showers and storms may develop across these areas this afternoon, tied to a second MCV centered over the Hill Country. Weak instability and little opportunity to destabilize should keep any activity across North Texas rather tame. However, the 12Z FWD upper air sounding measured a PW of 2.15", which is well above the climatological 90th percentile of 1.85". The anomalous moisture will continue to support the potential for locally heavy rain, but fortunately, rainfall rates have been quite lower than we`ve seen in recent days. Further south across Central Texas, breaks in cloud cover is allowing for modest destabilization. As a result, a few robust storms with gusty winds and small hail can`t be ruled out later this afternoon, but severe weather will be quite unlikely given the lack of shear. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main concern with any of this activity. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected to linger into the evening, primarily across Central Texas and eastern North Texas. Most areas will likely see a brief lull in rain chances late tonight, but some isolated convection will have the potential to linger through the entire overnight period. We`ll remain beneath weak upper level troughing on Tuesday, though an upper level ridge across the Deep South will attempt to build further west into portions of eastern North and Central Texas. The weak troughing will bring additional chances for showers and storms to the region on Tuesday, but the best chances will be confined to North Texas and areas west of I-35 in Central Texas. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern with any of this activity. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ An upper level ridge will continue to build into the region through the remainder of the period, effectively shutting off rain chances for most of the area. The main exception will be portions of Southeast Texas and the Brazos Valley where we could see some seabreeze activity Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, temperatures will be on a warming trend, with highs in the mid to upper 90s expected for most of the region by this weekend. Heat index values will be in the triple digits, so ensure you`re taking extra precautions to stay safe in the heat. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ The potential for additional after convection has significantly declined across North Texas this afternoon. As a result, VCTS was removed from the TAF for all D10 terminals. Another round of showers and storms is expected to develop across Central Texas late this afternoon or this evening, so VCTS was maintained in the KACT TAF. The timing remains a bit uncertain and may be more in the 00-03Z time period, but kept an onset time of 21Z as some guidance is still depicting slightly earlier development. There is a low chance a stray shower or storm could make it into D10 airspace, but the potential is too low now to include any mention in the TAF. If this occurs, it would most likely be between 23-03Z this evening. Additional chances for showers and storms are expected on Tuesday, mainly across North Texas. Coverage is expected to be too limited to include any mention in the TAF at this time. Aside from any rain chances, VFR and south winds around 10 knots or less will prevail through the period. There is a low chance for a brief period of MVFR ceilings at KACT tonight or early Tuesday morning, but the potential is too low to include any mention in the TAF at this time. Barnes && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 76 93 75 94 / 40 20 20 0 5 Waco 90 73 91 73 92 / 50 30 20 0 0 Paris 88 73 91 73 92 / 50 20 20 5 5 Denton 92 74 94 75 95 / 30 20 20 0 5 McKinney 90 75 93 74 94 / 40 20 20 0 5 Dallas 92 76 93 75 95 / 50 20 20 0 5 Terrell 90 73 93 73 94 / 50 20 20 0 5 Corsicana 92 75 94 75 95 / 50 20 10 0 0 Temple 91 73 92 73 93 / 50 30 20 0 0 Mineral Wells 93 73 93 74 94 / 20 10 20 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$