475
FXUS64 KFWD 171835
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
135 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tomorrow/

Low-level moisture and instability will surge northward over the
next few days, resulting diurnally-driven chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. The moisture plume is located below
700 mb, underneath an area of mid/upper-level subsidence. These
counteracting forces (low-level lift & mid/upper-level subsidence)
will keep the coverage of precip isolated and the thunderstorm
chances low. The exception to this will be across the southeastern
third of our area where 30-40 kts of southeast flow aloft will
result in an enhanced seabreeze moving into the area late in the
afternoon. Even then, storms should be quick-moving and largely
confined to outflow boundaries. Convective activity should wane
with the loss of heating each evening, resulting in mild and humid
nights.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Rain showers will be on the increase across Central Texas late
Tuesday night as a plume of deep tropical moisture surges
northwest into the area. The tropical disturbance responsible for
the precipitation will be in the process of moving inland across
South Texas, placing North and Central Texas within a zone of
strong warm/moist air advection. Showers will spread northwest
through the forecast area during the day Wednesday, with
occasional thunderstorms possible in the afternoon as surface
instability is attained. The latest model guidance indicates that
the axis of exceptionally high moisture content will be along and
southwest of a line from roughly Wichita Falls to Palestine, where
2.25" PWATs are a good possibility (around 150% of normal). This
would include pretty much all of Central Texas and western
portions of the DFW Metroplex, and would be the most likely area
where training showers and storms could produce a threat for
flooding. It is possible that a southeast to northwest rain band
could set up and continue into the night, enhancing the flood
threat on a local scale.

It is too soon to bank on any one scenario, but good to keep in
mind that locally higher amounts (above the generally 1 to 3
inches forecast) of rain are possible somewhere southwest of the
aforementioned geographical line. Rainfall totals (and the threat
for flooding) northeast of this line would be significantly less.
The exact location of the moist axis could also shift one way or
another, either decreasing or increasing the threat for locally
heavy rain. Unfortunately the bust potential is also quite high,
because if the system were to wrap up over the Gulf and become
more intense than currently forecast, precipitation might become
more confined to South Texas while North/Central Texas becomes
displaced too far north in the subsident zone. We should be able
to refine these and other details over the next 48 hours.

Whatever the case, Wednesday night precipitation will exit from
east to west on Thursday as the tropical system progresses west
across Mexico. A mid level ridge will re-strengthen overhead in
its wake, ending rain chances and bringing typical summer weather
in time for the weekend. Another easterly wave will create at
least a slight chance of rain during the early to middle part of
next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

A scattered Cu field over the area will continue through the
afternoon before dissipating this evening. Isolated showers will
continue, with the highest coverage remaining across Central and
East Texas. The coverage of precip will be lower in/near the D10
terminals, therefore no wx groups were added to the D10 TAFs.

MVFR will surge north tonight, overspreading all terminals in the
few hours straddling midnight. The stratus will linger for much of
the morning, slowly lifting/scattering into a Cu field by the
early afternoon. South flow will prevail through the valid TAF
period.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  76  92  75  83 /  10   5  10   5  30
Waco                91  75  90  74  81 /  20   5  20  10  60
Paris               90  72  90  72  86 /  20  10  20   5  20
Denton              93  74  92  74  82 /   5   5  10   5  30
McKinney            92  74  91  73  82 /  10   5  20   5  30
Dallas              93  75  92  75  82 /  10   5  20  10  30
Terrell             91  73  90  73  83 /  20  10  20  10  40
Corsicana           93  75  92  74  81 /  20  10  20  20  50
Temple              93  75  92  74  79 /  20   5  20  20  60
Mineral Wells       93  75  92  73  82 /   5   0  10   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$