Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
283 FXUS64 KFWD 020037 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 737 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North and Central Texas through Friday morning as slow moving thunderstorms will bring heavy rain and isolated flash flooding to the region. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms along with below normal highs are expected this weekend. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected next week along with mostly clear skies and much drier weather. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and east of the I-35 corridor bringing heavy rain to much of the area. Since this morning, this line of storms has produced 1-3 inches of rain for most with isolated pockets between 4 and 5 inches. In the absence of any progressive surface boundary, these storms will continue to slowly move eastward from the I-35 corridor into East Texas. Short term guidance suggests that this line of heavy rain and thunderstorms will become more broken with time. Nonetheless, the flash flooding risk that has been realized across portions of the DFW Metroplex will continue through the rest of the afternoon for the I-35 corridor eastward. Due to the uncertainty in convective coverage and persistence of heavy rain, the current Flood Watch has not been expanded east as of now. However, conditions are being monitored and the Flood Watch area may need to be updated this afternoon. By this evening most of the current activity will have dissipated or moved off towards the east with only lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms (30-50% chance of rain) into the early overnight hours. Widespread cloud cover and rain will also keep temperatures below average for most in the region with highs ranging from the mid-70s to the mid-80s. Upper-80s are expected in the Brazos Valley as the late arrival of clouds and precip has allowed for stronger diurnal warming throughout the morning. Tonight, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected (70-80% chance of rain) generally along and east of the I-35 corridor south of I-20. There is more uncertainty in the development and coverage of rain overnight north of the I-20 corridor; however, scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected generally along and east of the I-35 corridor by sunrise tomorrow. By Friday, a southwest to northeast oriented cold front will finally advance slowly south across the area. Aloft, weak troughing will continue to provide weak forcing for ascent across the Southern Plains. Isentropic lift in the vicinity of and behind the incoming cold front will also provide additional lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue throughout the day on Friday. All in all, it should be another cloudy and rainy day with temperatures largely remaining in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 ...Friday Night through Sunday... Friday night into Saturday will reminisce of Fridays weather. However, the upper-level disturbance and associated mid-level vort max will gradually de-amplify during this time frame resulting in more scattered coverage (50-70%) of remaining showers and thunderstorms (as opposed to the more widespread convection expected the rest of the work week). Northerly winds at the surface will continue to advect in cooler continental air from up north, keeping temperatures below average yet again in the 70s. Sunday, the upper-level pattern will become more zonal with the mid-level vort max dissipating and advecting off towards the southeastern CONUS. There should still be enough residual lift from this upper-level disturbance and continued isentropic lift over the shallow post-frontal airmass to bring another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-50%). The greatest rain chances will be across Central Texas where isentropic lift and moisture will be greatest. ...Monday through Thursday... By Monday, high pressure will build in across the southern plains as another weak cold front pushes across North and Central Texas from the northeast. Afternoon temperatures should actually be slightly warmer than this weekend (highs in the 80s) due to the dryness of the air and increased daytime heating from mostly clear skies. Overnight lows should be slightly below average in the 50s and low-60s as this same weather pattern favors strong radiative cooling at night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 734 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Low ceilings have scattered out this evening as the back edge of the cloud shield associated with today`s precipitation continues to gradually shift east. Expectations are for a return to MVFR ceilings for all TAF sites tonight as diurnal cooling of a moist airmass commences. 00Z satellite imagery depicts some cumulus and a few billow clouds off to the northwest of D10, with residual low ceilings west of ACT. Locations between the two will likely fill in and spread east into the I-35 corridor with time. Trends will be monitored. The primary operational impact for tonight and the remainder of the period will continue to be chances for showers and thunderstorms. Redevelopment is expected generally east of I-35 around 06Z, building west into the D10 and Waco airspaces thereafter. The greatest likelihood of direct impacts at this juncture appears to be between 09-13Z as the westward translation of a broken line of thunderstorms stalls along I-35. Have introduced a TEMPO for that time period. Showers will likely linger through the remainder of the period. A weak cold front will shift flow to northerly tomorrow morning, first at D10 (around 10Z) then at Waco (around 13Z). Winds will remain light as this occurs, increasing to ~10 kts in the afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Spotter activation is not likely, but any reports of flooding or hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 76 67 76 / 90 80 70 70 Waco 70 78 68 78 / 90 90 70 70 Paris 68 77 67 76 / 90 80 60 70 Denton 68 75 64 76 / 70 70 60 70 McKinney 67 76 64 76 / 90 80 70 70 Dallas 71 77 68 77 / 90 90 70 70 Terrell 68 78 66 77 / 90 90 70 70 Corsicana 70 78 68 78 / 90 90 70 70 Temple 69 78 67 78 / 90 90 70 70 Mineral Wells 65 74 61 75 / 50 70 70 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for TXZ103>107-118>123-133>135- 144>146-156>161-174. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Dornsife