318
FXUS64 KFWD 170516
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1216 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are forecast through the
  rest of the workweek.

- There is a chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms late Wednesday
  evening and Wednesday night mainly north of I-20. A few of
  these storms could be severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Wednesday/

A warm and humid night is expected across Central and North Texas
tonight with temperatures in the mid 70s and dewpoints just a few
degrees cooler. Some intermittent patchy cloud cover is expected
through the night, otherwise no precipitation is expected.

Hot and humid conditions will continue through mid week as weak
ridging spreads through the Southern Plains. Increasing southwest
flow aloft will send temperatures into the mid and upper 90s
today, especially west of I-35. Deeper mixing is expected to keep
dewpoints in check though through late afternoon which should keep
heat indices from getting much higher than 103-105 degrees. Breezy
southerly winds will also help mitigate the heat. This weak
ridging will spread eastward on Wednesday and we`ll see a lowering
of mid level heights and slightly cooler afternoon highs as a
result. A cold front will slide southward through the Plains on
Wednesday afternoon where scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop. The front will make it into North Texas late Wednesday
evening and will continue to serve as a focus for convective
development into the nighttime hours.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025/
/Wednesday Onward/

The long-term forecast will be influenced by a slowly eastward
migrating ridge that will keep widespread rain chances at bay.
After this afternoon`s isolated showers, our next rain chances
will arrive Wednesday evening as a cold front slides into our
region. This cold front will likely stall across North Texas and
lead to a few showers and thunderstorms. CAPE values will range
between 1500-2000 along the leading edge of the front, which will
likely be enough for a few strong to isolated severe storms. Given
weak deep-layer shear, individual storms are expected to become a
cluster of storms with strong wind gusts the main threat. Rain
chances should diminish after midnight as instability and forcing
for ascent diminishes.

The latter half of the week will continue to be warm as
temperatures stay in  the mid to upper 90s. With southerly flow
in place, afternoon thunderstorms near the Houston metro will
produce a northward moving outflow boundary that may kick off
additional storms in our region each afternoon. All storms should
remain sub-severe with minimal coverage expected.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR is expected to prevail through the period with increasing
southerly winds on Tuesday. Some scattered low cloud cover is
noted currently mainly northeast of the major airports, but cigs
have been running 4000-5000 ft. These will likely linger for
several hours through the overnight period, but VFR should
prevail. South winds will become gusty late Tuesday morning with
gusts approaching 30 kt by midday. Breezy conditions will continue
into Tuesday night.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  95  77  93  76 /   0   0   0   5  30
Waco                75  93  75  92  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               73  91  75  89  73 /   0   0   0  20  30
Denton              75  95  76  94  74 /   0   0   0   5  30
McKinney            75  94  76  92  75 /   0   0   0   5  30
Dallas              78  96  77  94  76 /   0   0   0   5  20
Terrell             74  92  76  91  74 /   0   0   0   5  20
Corsicana           75  93  77  92  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              73  94  75  94  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       74  97  76  94  73 /   0   0   0   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$