Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
829 FXUS64 KFWD 261804 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1204 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and dry conditions are expected today through Friday. - Chances for showers and a few storms will return late Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. Rainfall totals are expected to range from 1/10 inch to over 1 inch. A few strong storms are also possible on Saturday, mainly in Central Texas. - A strong cold front will move through the area late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, bringing the coldest weather of the season so far through the first half of next week. A few showers will be possible Monday and Tuesday behind the front. - While there may be a very brief window for winter precipitation Monday night and Tuesday night, marginal temperatures will make any accumulation or impacts very unlikely. It`s likely the timing and location of sub-freezing temperatures and precipitation chances will fail to align. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1204 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Chilly air will continue to filter into the region today in the wake of last night`s cold front. Temperatures will remain in the 50s for most locations this afternoon with north to northeast winds near 5 to 15 mph. Expect chilly temperatures overnight, with lows falling into the mid 30s to low 40s. Light southerly winds will return early Thursday, but cool conditions will persist. Thanksgiving Day is shaping up to be quite pleasant, with afternoon highs mostly in the mid 50s to low 60s and clearing skies throughout the day. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1204 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Moisture will begin to return to the region Thursday night into Friday ahead of our next approaching system. As a result, mostly cloudy to overcast skies will blanket the region Thursday night and persist throughout the day Friday. Despite the return of warm/moist advection, the dense cloud cover will offset daytime heating on Friday, resulting in another cool day across the region with afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. By Friday afternoon, a weak shortwave trough aloft combined with strengthening warm air advection may be enough to squeeze out a few showers late in the afternoon, mainly across our western zones. Warm air advection will intensify Friday night, resulting in an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight through Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will be barreling through the Texas Panhandle Saturday morning, entering North Texas during the afternoon. Showers and storms will likely see another uptick in coverage and intensity as the front approaches, with the best potential for showers and storms expected roughly along and east of the I-35 corridor. The front will continue to sweep through the remainder of the forecast area through the afternoon/evening, bringing an end to any rain chances sometime Saturday night. A few strong storms can`t be ruled out Saturday afternoon, primarily across Central Texas. An isolated severe threat may materialize, and the primary hazard would be hail. While dew points will potentially be in the low to mid 60s across Central Texas prior to the front`s arrival with abundant low-level shear, it will be rather difficult for any storms to become surface- based, as daytime destabilization will be difficult due to mostly cloudy to overcast skies. IF for some reason storms were able to become surface-based Saturday afternoon, there would be a small window in which an isolated tornado could be possible across our far south/southeast zones. However, this appears rather unlikely at this time. Additionally, rainfall is expected to be rather light with this system, with current rainfall totals ranging from 1/10th of an inch to just over 1 inch. Therefore, flooding is not expected with the weekend rain and storms. Winter will make an early appearance as the coldest temperatures of the season so far are expected behind Saturday`s cold front. Afternoon highs will be in the 40s for most areas Sunday through Tuesday, with cold mornings in the 20s and 30s. Moisture return may happen slightly faster behind this weekend`s front, which could open the door for rain chances to return Monday and Tuesday as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Yes, the rumors are true - there will be a very brief window in which wintry precipitation will be possible both Monday night and Tuesday night, mainly near the Red River. However, temperatures likely will not be cold enough for any noteworthy impacts, if wintry precipitation were to occur. It`s also entirely within the realm of possibilities that precipitation will fail to align in time and/or space with the sub-freezing temperatures. Either way, just keep an eye on the weather to stay informed over the next few days, but don`t go buying up all of the bread and milk just yet! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the period, with no significant aviation concerns. North to northeast winds around 10 knots will prevail through the afternoon. While winds will remain out of the northeast overnight, wind speeds will weaken below 5 knots this evening and will remain very light overnight. The light speeds will result in slightly variable winds at times - mostly varying from east to northeast. Light southeast winds will return Thursday morning and remain near 5 knots or less through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 57 40 60 42 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 58 38 60 42 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 55 34 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 56 34 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 56 36 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 57 39 60 42 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 58 36 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 60 40 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 60 38 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 60 35 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...Barnes