Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
794 FXUS64 KFWD 291052 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 552 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A significant pattern change will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to North and Central Texas Wednesday through Friday. - Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. - The threat for flash flooding will increase Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, particularly where heavy rain repeatedly moves over the same area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 A low-amplitude ridge axis will translate across the Southern Plains today, providing one final predominantly dry and hot day before a substantial pattern change begins Wednesday. Increasing upper-level moisture will precede the approaching western trough, resulting in a steady canopy of cirrus through much of the day. This should do little to suppress temperatures, however, with highs once again reaching the lower and middle 90s. The ridge axis will shift east this afternoon while pressure falls increase along the Front Range in response to the deepening western system. The resulting tightening surface pressure gradient will strengthen southerly flow across North and Central Texas. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts approaching 30 mph will become common during the afternoon. Despite the Increasing moisture aloft, large-scale forcing for ascent will remain displaced well west of the region through today and tonight. Subsidence associated with the departing ridge should therefore keep North and Central Texas precipitation-free through the evening and much of the overnight period. Attention will turn west late tonight as the upper low advances toward New Mexico and deeper moisture begins spreading east. Initial showers and storms should remain west of the forecast area through most of the night, although precipitation may be approaching our western counties around daybreak Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 A much more impactful weather pattern will begin unfolding Wednesday as a deep upper low moves into New Mexico while anomalously rich tropical and Gulf moisture spreads northeast into the Southern Plains. Rain chances will initially favor western North and Central Texas Wednesday morning and afternoon, where the better overlap of moisture and large-scale ascent will reside. The main upper low will still be centered over New Mexico Wednesday afternoon, keeping the strongest forcing west of our area. As a result, daytime convection should remain isolated to scattered rather than widespread. A passing shortwave moving across the Texas Panhandle may provide enough ascent for pockets of showers and thunderstorms, but widespread heavy rain is not expected during the first half of Wednesday. The environment changes considerably Wednesday afternoon and evening as a stronger shortwave with a more southerly trajectory approaches North and Central Texas. At the same time, a southwest-to-northeast oriented upper jet streak will advance into the Plains, placing North and Central Texas beneath increasingly favorable upper-level divergence. This will mark the beginning of the more significant heavy-rain window. Precipitable water values may exceed 2" across portions of North Texas, near record levels for late September. A 35-40 kt southerly low-level jet will remain established through Wednesday night, continuously supplying warm and moist air into the region while maintaining strong moisture convergence beneath the increasingly favorable upper-level forcing. By Wednesday night, surface low pressure will be located across Kansas while a dry slot begins advancing into the Texas Panhandle. The eastern edge of this dry air should sharpen into a southwest-to-northeast oriented convergence axis separating the dry intrusion from the moist air to its east. This boundary may become an important focus for repeated thunderstorm development through the night. Of particular note is the orientation of the mean flow nearly parallel to this boundary. Storms developing along the axis may repeatedly track over the same locations, while the persistent low-level jet continually replenishes moisture from the south. This setup will favor training convection and efficient rainfall production Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through 1 PM Thursday for much of North and Central Texas along and west of I-35. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts up to 8" possible where training becomes established. Rain should persist into Thursday morning while gradually progressing east. A relative minimum in precipitation appears increasingly plausible Thursday afternoon as the initial shortwave departs and the first axis of stronger forcing shifts away from the region. This lull may be temporary as another shortwave is forecast to eject from the western trough Thursday night into Friday while another jet streak approaches. Parts of North and Central Texas may once again become favorably positioned beneath its right- entrance region, supporting another period of stronger ascent and renewed heavy rainfall. Confidence in the placement of Thursday night`s heaviest rain remains considerably lower, however. The evolution of Wednesday night and Thursday morning convection will likely modify the low- level boundaries and determine where the richest moisture and instability are able to recover. Additional adjustments to the Flood Watch may become necessary as this secondary heavy-rain window becomes better resolved. The mid-level trough is expected to remain slow-moving near New Mexico into Friday before only gradually progressing east. This will keep North and Central Texas beneath repeated waves of ascent within a post-frontal environment. Isentropic ascent over the cooler surface air will maintain periodic rain chances Friday through the weekend. Widespread heavy rainfall is not currently expected Saturday or Sunday, but periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms may affect outdoor activities. The cooler pattern will persist with afternoon highs generally in the mid 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 A cirrus deck continues to move across North and Central this early Tuesday morning with an MVFR deck gradually shifting north into Central Texas out of the Edwards Plateau. The main weather concern this morning will be the arrival of MVFR ceilings at KACT from around 13-16z. After 16z, ceilings will gradually lift and all TAF sites will return to VFR. By this afternoon, expect an increase in wind speeds as sustained winds climb to around 15 kts. A few gusts closer to 20-22 kts will be possible through the the afternoon into tonight. Moisture will be on the rise tonight as southerly winds persist areawide. An MVFR deck is expected to quickly progress northward between 09-10z with ceiling restrictions persisting through the rest of the morning. Ceiling improvements are expected after 18z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 76 93 73 / 0 0 40 80 Waco 93 75 94 74 / 0 0 40 70 Paris 92 72 93 73 / 0 0 10 40 Denton 93 74 93 70 / 0 0 30 90 McKinney 93 72 92 70 / 0 0 30 80 Dallas 94 77 94 75 / 0 0 30 80 Terrell 94 73 94 72 / 0 0 20 50 Corsicana 94 73 94 73 / 0 0 20 40 Temple 94 72 95 72 / 0 10 50 70 Mineral Wells 92 72 91 69 / 0 0 50 100 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156-157-159. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez