Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
574 FXUS64 KFWD 151842 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 142 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot temperatures will continue for the next several days with highs reaching or exceeding 100 degrees each afternoon. - Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days, and low humidity may contribute to increased wildfire activity through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Hot and dry weather will remain the primary forecast concern through the weekend as strong mid-level ridging remains centered across the Southern Plains. This will lead to afternoon temperatures having little trouble climbing to near or above the century mark both today and Sunday. For today, the combination of temperatures near 100 degrees and dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s will push heat index values to around 105-107 degrees across much of the eastern two- thirds of the forecast area. A Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon for these areas. Farther west, deeper boundary-layer mixing will result in lower humidity, but ambient temperatures will remain hot. Tonight will offer little relief, especially across the urban corridor where lows will remain near 80 degrees. Most rural areas will fall into the mid and upper 70s. Sunday will be similar, although slightly drier air should mix farther east during the afternoon. This will keep heat index values below 105 degrees in some locations, but actual air temperatures will exceed 103 degrees across portions of the region. For that reason, the Heat Advisory has been reconfigured to cover much of North Texas tomorrow as temperatures reach 103-105 degrees. With no rain chances in the forecast, the hot and dry conditions will continue to cure fine fuels across the region. Although winds will remain relatively light compared to previous days, the hot weather and dry fuels will keep a low threat for new fire starts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 The hot and dry pattern will persist through the upcoming work week with the highest heat likely Monday through Wednesday as the upper ridge axis becomes positioned directly overhead. High temperatures will generally range from 101 to 104 degrees across North and Central Texas each afternoon, with the hottest readings favored across North Texas. With afternoon mixing lowering humidity below 30%, heat index values may be at or even slightly below actual temperatures. The dry air will also maintain an increasing wildfire concern, particularly across western and northern portions of the area where relative humidity values may fall into the upper teens to middle 20 percent range. Wind speeds currently appear modest through much of the period, but the prolonged stretch of hot, dry weather and drying fuel conditions will continue to support grass fire potential. Meaningful rainfall is not expected through the work week. There are indications the ridge may weaken or shift late next week into the weekend, which would be the next opportunity for low-end rain chances to return. Confidence in that pattern change remains low at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Southerly winds and VFR skies will persist across the region through tomorrow thanks to the ridge of high pressure overhead. Wind speeds will generally range between 10-15 kts with minimal variability in wind direction. Similar to this morning, another round of MVFR ceilings will develop south of KACT and migrate to the northeast closer to sunrise. Current guidance favors the low ceilings remaining east of KACT, therefore, no mention was added to the KACT forecast. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 103 80 104 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 78 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 79 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 79 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 103 81 104 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 76 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 75 104 73 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>095-102>107- 117>123-131>135-146-148. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ100-101-115-116-129-130. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ144-145-147- 157>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez