Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
170 FXUS64 KFWD 021854 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 154 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible through this evening mainly near and east of Interstate 35. - Highs will return to the 90s Thursday and Friday, with chances for rain and cooler temperatures returning this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today Through Wednesday Afternoon/ The patchy fog that was observed this morning has eroded, leaving behind the start of a somewhat early September day. Isolated- scattered convection has already begun to pop up to our east and north near the Red River. With minimal synoptic change compared to yesterday, isolated showers and storms will remain possible through this evening, particularly confined to areas near and east of the I-35 corridor and the Red River. Chances for rain further west will be much lower, but we cannot rule out a pop up shower or two (< 10% chance). Brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning will be the main threats with any storm that is able to develop this afternoon. The isolated nature of convection will keep most of the region dry, observing afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. As diurnally-driven heating is the main forcing for ascent today, coverage of any lingering showers and storms along any outflow will wane with the loss of heating tonight. A surface high is expected to move into the region overnight through Wednesday. As this high moves through, drier air will filter in. Light winds and mostly clear skies will prevail, but the drier air will likely keep fog from developing outside of fog-prone and low-lying valleys. Afternoon highs tomorrow will again be able to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s. Over the next couple of days, you may notice hazy skies. This is due to the arrival of wildfire smoke originating the PACNW and Intermountain West. As there will be minimal change in our mid level pattern (the region will remain planted underneath northwest flow aloft), the haziness will persist through midweek. Prater && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ Southerly winds will return to the region as the surface high exits to our south/southeast overnight into Thursday morning. The southerly flow and mostly sunny skies will allow afternoon highs to warm even more through the end of the week, with highs peaking in the 90s both Thursday and Friday, with some isolated spots in western North Texas potentially reaching 100 degrees. Thankfully, this will not persist into the upcoming weekend as a pattern shift will take place. A digging shortwave off in the Midwest will send its attendant cold front south through the Plains on Friday, eventually making it into North Texas late Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorena in the East Pacific is expected to take a right turn into Baja California and Sonora this weekend, with most guidance continuing to shift its tropical moisture eastward over Texas. The combination of increased moisture from both Lorena and the Gulf, interacting with the cold front across the region is leading to the potential for increased rain chances Saturday onward as the remnant upper low of Lorena moves overhead. At this time, consensus shows best rain chances are near and west of the I-35 corridor this weekend, with lower chances further east. Additionally, cloudy skies and rain-cooled post-frontal air would bring temperatures back down into the 80s through the weekend. However there is still uncertainty on whether this scenario will occur, as guidance is not in 100% agreement (The Euro wants to keep Lorena in the Pacific), but a majority of ensemble members are highlighting increased QPF Saturday onward. Bottom line - there continues to be potential for a rainy weekend and outdoor plans could be impacted. We`ll continue to monitor the potential for rounds of rain and potential flooding threats through the rest of the week, and adjust the forecast as necessary. Make sure to keep updated with the forecast as more specific details regarding locations, timing, and rainfall amounts will become clearer as we get closer in time. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Northerly winds will prevail (varying between WNW and ENE) the rest of today, though a period of more E-NE winds is possible at ACT late this afternoon and evening before returning to the north. Similar to yesterday, isolated showers and perhaps a storm or two that are capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain are possible late this afternoon into the evening. This is particularly confined to areas near and east of I-35, and have persisted VCSH within D10 from 21-02Z. Coverage of storms will wane with the loss of daytime heating, so there is less certainty on whether ACT will be impacted by any nearby showers/storms along an outflow boundary later tonight. Have kept any mention out of the TAF for now until we see how things develop over the next few hours. Overnight, drier air should filter in in response to an incoming surface high, leading to minimal fog development outside of low-lying areas. Northerly winds will persist through the rest of the period. Prater && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 70 88 70 95 / 20 10 0 0 0 Waco 90 70 90 65 96 / 10 10 0 0 0 Paris 85 67 86 64 92 / 20 10 5 0 0 Denton 88 66 89 66 95 / 20 10 0 0 0 McKinney 87 67 87 66 93 / 20 10 0 0 0 Dallas 90 71 89 70 97 / 20 10 0 0 0 Terrell 88 69 87 66 92 / 20 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 90 71 89 68 95 / 20 10 0 0 0 Temple 91 69 92 65 97 / 10 0 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 90 65 90 65 98 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$