Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
408 FXUS64 KFWD 012356 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 556 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue into next week. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) will be possible along and north of Highway 380 this evening and tonight. - Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night through next weekend. Some severe storms may be possible. The potential for flooding may increase next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 It was a cloudy morning across much of the region, but skies will continue to clear out over the next couple of hours. Warm and breezy weather is expected the remainder of the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and southerly 10-20 mph winds. Wind gusts between 20-25 mph will be possible through the afternoon. A cold front in southern Oklahoma will move south towards our north/northwestern border this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front in Central/Southern Oklahoma. Confidence is increasing that the front will make it into portions of the forecast area prior to stalling, bringing a potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms with it. Isolated instances of hail and gusty winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop, but the better potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms will remain just to our north. Showers and thunderstorms should exit/dissipate by early Monday morning. The main change with today`s update was to lower high temperatures behind the front across our north/northwest zones, as it looks like we could have a slightly stronger push of colder air behind the front. As a result, there will likely be a fairly tight temperature gradient across North Texas, but its exact location will depend on how far south the front gets tonight. Areas north of the front will likely only reach the upper 60s to mid 70s tomorrow afternoon, with areas south of the front expected to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Another warm and breezy day is expected on Tuesday ahead of our next approaching system. Southerly winds will increase to 15-20 mph across much of the region with wind gusts between 25-30 mph. A few of our Big Country counties could see relative humidity fall to near 30%, resulting in an elevated threat for wildfires. Higher humidity should keep the fire threat below elevated levels for the remainder of the forecast area, but precautions should still be taken to prevent any wildfire starts. An unsettled weather pattern is slated to begin Tuesday night as rain chances increase, with showers and storms expected to become more widespread on Wednesday, especially during the afternoon and evening. Instability, deep layer shear, and relatively steep lapse rates will support a threat for strong to severe storms, with hail and damaging winds expected to be the main hazards. A shortwave trough on the backside of this system may allow thunderstorm chances to persist into Thursday, but weaker ascent could limit both storm coverage and intensity. It`s possible Thursday ends up being mostly rain-free. Another system is slated to arrive late in the week and will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region as we head into the weekend. A threat for strong to severe storms may accompany some of this activity and will bear watching throughout the week. Additionally, there`s a fairly strong signal among ensemble guidance that deeper moisture will develop across the region by next weekend. This would result in an increased potential for heavy rainfall and potentially flooding as well, but the extent of any flood threat will depend on how much rain falls earlier in the week and the timing/placement of any successive rounds of showers and storms. Either way, ensure you`re monitoring the forecast this week, as our active pattern is likely here to stay through at least next weekend and potentially beyond. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 VFR will prevail this evening across the Metroplex and Central Texas terminals with gusty south winds gradually diminishing to around 8-12 kts overnight. The weak cold front currently draped across central/southeast OK is expected to sag into North TX late tonight and stall near the Highway 380 corridor. The associated wind shift is not likely to reach any of the TAF sites during the next 30 hours. The main aviation concern this period will be low ceilings late tonight into Monday morning. MVFR cigs (around 1-2 kft) are expected to spread northward through the region late tonight, reaching KACT ~08-09Z and the Metroplex closer to 11-12Z. Confidence is high enough for a brief IFR window to warrant TEMPO groups for the D10 terminals from 13-15Z where cigs may dip to near or under 1 kft briefly before lifting back to MVFR/VFR by late morning or midday. Farther south, KACT and KGRK should primarily remain MVFR (around 1-1.5 kft) with no IFR mention warranted at this time. No visibility restrictions are expected and precipitation chances remain low with any frontal convection expected to stay well north closer to the Red River. South winds will persist through Monday with speeds near 8-12 kts, along with gradual improvements/scattering of the stratus in the early afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 79 61 83 / 10 10 0 0 Waco 59 80 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 57 76 58 80 / 20 10 0 10 Denton 54 76 57 82 / 20 10 0 10 McKinney 57 77 59 82 / 10 10 0 10 Dallas 61 80 63 84 / 10 10 0 10 Terrell 56 79 60 82 / 10 10 0 10 Corsicana 58 82 63 85 / 0 10 0 10 Temple 59 80 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 56 80 58 86 / 10 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...12