Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
869 FXUS64 KFWD 031755 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1255 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the Brazos Valley and adjacent areas through 7 PM Thursday. - Localized flash flooding will be possible south of I-20 and east of I-35 through Thursday night. - Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across much of the Big Country into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 The remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard, in the form of a narrow convergence axis and blob of rich moisture, will drift slowly westward across portions of North Texas through tonight. The primary focus for convection this afternoon will be generally east of I-35 and south of I-20, with a preference for the western edge of this envelope by the late afternoon hours. From this late evening through the overnight hours, short-term convective allowing models are advertising a blossoming of new activity farther west, generally along a Killeen to Clifton to Cleburne line by daybreak Friday. While excessive rainfall is not expected in these areas overnight, it`s certainly possible some brief heavy downpours could occur. This is an area that will need to be monitored late tonight. The great majority of this convection should remain south of the DFW area through tonight, though some chance PoPs will be required for the Metroplex. Based on accumulated rainfall so far, plus expected high rainfall rates this afternoon, we`ve extended the Flood Watch for our southeastern counties, and we`ve expanded the watch westward along a line from Canton, through Corsicana and Mexia, into Franklin. It`s not out of the question this activity may overperform, rainfall wise, given the high precipitable water values present in the area. Should this occur, the watch would need to be expanded closer to I- 35 south of DFW, and extended into the evening hours. For now, we`ll stick with the 7 pm expiration, pending later development. Friday will feature additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across Central Texas, in association with the lingering lower to mid-level weakness and moisture blob left over from Edouard. Overall coverage and rain rates should be diminished across the southern half of our forecast area Friday vs. today. Nevertheless, a few spots in Central Texas, mainly west of I-35, may yet receive additional brief heavy rainfall through the afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon across much of North and Central Texas will be significantly modulated by the ongoing clouds and precipitation from the remnant tropical system. Over our far western counties, however, abundant sunshine will allow afternoon readings in many locales to break the century mark once again. On Friday, a decrease in cloudcover and precipitation, and an enhancement of the upper ridge will allow readings in many areas to push back into the mid and upper 90s. The exception will be across the far southeast counties, where some residual cloudcover and wet soils will inhibit highs from clmbing beyond the lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 The sensible weather across North Central Texas will steadily revert to conditions that resemble those endured during August. While a subtle weakness in the upper ridge will persist across the region through Saturday, this will be supplanted by a reintensifying upper ridge across most of the Central United States. Accordingly, daytime temperatures should climb back through the 90s from Saturday onward, with many areas experiencing a return to 100 degree plus heat by the early to middle part of the upcoming week. Unfortunately, heat indices will rise in parallel, reaching values that may require the issuance of additional heat advisories. The only relief will be in the form of scattered showers and storms which will occur across Central Texas each afternoon next week. The coverage and amounts from this activity will not be impressive, unfortunately. No significant changes in the large scale pattern are anticipated through at least next week, with drought conditions persisting in many areas of Western North Texas and the Red River region.&& && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 With the remnants of Edouardo wandering over the region for the next 24+ hours, this creates a level of uncertainty in impact trends for this TAF period. MVFR cigs this morning have now all improved to 3000 feet or above. VFR ceilings are expected to continue through this TAF period, but occasional MVFR cigs are possible if heavier rain occurs over an airport. As we move into the afternoon hours, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to occur with higher rain chances at KACT vs the Metroplex airports. For the Metroplex, will carry a VCTS from 20- 00Z. At KACT, also included a PROB30 group from 20-00Z. Usually with these remnant tropical systems, convection redevelops overnight and have included a VCSH after 05Z at all the airports for this potential. However, it`s possible isolated thunder occurs as well overnight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 95 76 98 / 30 20 0 0 Waco 73 95 73 96 / 50 40 0 10 Paris 73 97 73 98 / 0 10 0 0 Denton 73 97 73 99 / 20 10 0 0 McKinney 72 95 72 97 / 20 10 0 0 Dallas 76 96 76 98 / 30 10 0 0 Terrell 72 95 72 97 / 20 10 0 10 Corsicana 73 92 73 93 / 40 20 0 10 Temple 73 95 72 96 / 40 40 0 10 Mineral Wells 71 99 70 99 / 20 20 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ122-135-146>148- 161-162-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...JLDunn