287
FXUS64 KFWD 251748
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1248 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation, Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of
  North and Central Texas this afternoon. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend.

- Additional, low rain chances arrive early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Rest of this Afternoon through Thursday/

No major changes have occurred with the forecast for today, with
scattered storms primarily ongoing in and near the Brazos Valley
this afternoon. Expect coverage farther north to increase slightly
here over the next couple of hours, although storms will remain
more isolated across North Texas compared to locations south.
Thunderstorms will remain sub-severe today, but will be capable
of gusty winds and brief heavy downpours before diminishing with
loss of heating. Temperatures mostly in the low/mid 80s currently
will warm into the low 90s for many, making it a slightly cooler
day than yesterday. Low to mid 70s are then anticipated again
tonight before another warm day in the upper 80s/low 90s Thursday.
One final real potential for sea breeze showers and storms will
develop again in the afternoon Thursday for Central Texas, with
less coverage anticipated tomorrow in comparison to today. Similar
to this afternoon, no severe weather is expected, but a few storms
may contain gusty winds and brief heavy rain.

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Latest trends are still on track with the discussion below, with a
warm up expected this weekend as well as diminishing rain chances.
This will change early next week with the return of 20% PoPs next
week with a slight change in the overall pattern. Hot weather will
continue with highs mostly in the mid/upper 90s through midweek.

Gordon

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Night Onward/

Lingering seabreeze showers Thursday evening will dissipate
quickly after sunset, giving way to another warm and humid night
with Friday morning lows in the 70s. Additional convection Friday
through the weekend is unlikely, due to strengthening subsidence
associated with the repositioning of a ridge axis directly
overhead. That said, will continue to keep 10 POPs across the
southeast counties where the seabreeze front may kick off a brief
shower or two. The rest of the region will remain rain-free with
temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 90s each afternoon
through Monday. Dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s will generate
heat index values of 98 to 103, which is uncomfortable but below
Heat Advisory criteria.

A slight pattern shift will occur early next week as a shortwave
trough drops southeast through the Plains and a weak front sags
south into North Texas. The front will stall, providing a focus
for thunderstorm development each afternoon during the midweek
part of next week. Coverage may not be widespread as 590+
decameter 500mb heights persist overhead, and weak flow aloft
would keep any convection which develops disorganized and sub-
severe. Gusty winds may still occur due to the mid-90s afternoon
temperatures and "inverted V" soundings, along with frequent
lightning and brief heavy rain.

Whatever the case, it is still a bit soon to nail down specifics
regarding timing and location of the front and associated storm
chances, so will stick with slight chance POPs for now and gather
more information in the coming days. Mid range guidance then
indicates the ridge restrengthening overhead and largely shutting
down rain chances just in time for July 4th, though forecast
confidence 8 to 10 days out is still pretty low.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns... Isolated TSRA potential this afternoon and another
MVFR potential for KACT Thursday morning.

Daytime cumulus has developed for much of the region which is now
VFR for all TAF sites. A few storms have developed south of ACT
with additional spotty showers developing through D10. The
greatest TSRA potential will exist from around 20-22Z this
afternoon for D10 and 19-22Z for Waco. Impacts from any storm
would primarily be gusty winds. Outside of this, southerly flow
will continue with winds generally near 10 kts. Another round of
low clouds will likely develop tonight for Central Texas, and
given previous trends, have opted for a TEMPO MVFR cig from 11/14Z
Thursday which will be refined in future issuances.

Gordon

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  76  92  76  94 /  20  10  10   0   0
Waco                88  73  91  73  93 /  20  10  20   0   0
Paris               90  72  90  72  91 /  20  10   5   0   5
Denton              91  74  93  74  94 /  20  10  10   0   5
McKinney            91  74  91  75  94 /  30  10  10   0   5
Dallas              90  75  93  77  95 /  20  10  10   0   0
Terrell             90  73  91  74  93 /  30  10  10   0   0
Corsicana           90  74  91  74  93 /  30  10  10   0   0
Temple              90  72  91  72  94 /  30  10  20   0   0
Mineral Wells       92  73  93  73  96 /  10   5  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$