Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
749 FXUS64 KFWD 272336 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 636 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A relative lull in storm activity is expected Friday and Saturday with highs near 90 and rain chances generally under 30%. - Sunday into next work week will potentially see another uptick in daily rain/thunderstorm chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 The majority of the precipitation from our earlier MCV has crossed the Red River into Oklahoma as of 6:30 PM. With subsident air moving in behind it, it should be a relatively dry night for North and Central Texas. There remains a low chance for storms originating from the Panhandle to move southeast towards our northwestern counties, but there is uncertainty on just how far these storms will make it before dying off. Will continue to advertise 10% chances for rain in our northwest early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, no major changes were made to the previous forecast and the discussion below remains valid. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 A Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) developed early this morning across Central Texas and has now managed to migrate north into eastern parts of North Texas. Concentrated forcing for ascent around the vortex led to heavy rain producing thunderstorms that generated areas of flooding earlier today. As we progress through the afternoon, continued ascent in an unstable airmass around the MCV will generate additional scattered thunderstorms that will progress north into Oklahoma. With a continued weakness in the pressure field atop North and Central Texas, a few isolated showers or storms may develop by the mid-afternoon hours. The location with the highest rain chances this afternoon will be in the eastern portions of North and Central Texas where moisture is most abundant. For tonight, much of the guidance continues to show minimal precipitation across North and Central Texas. With weak synoptic forcing aloft still in place, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out closer to sunrise, however, most locations will be precipitation-free. Patchy fog may develop closer to sunrise across Central Texas, leading to temporary reductions in visibility. A weak shortwave will be moving closer to North Texas late Thursday morning which may generate a few additional showers and isolated storms across North Texas. Confidence in the morning round of precipitation is low, but it`s something that will continue to be monitored through the rest of today and tonight. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 80s with weak winds in place. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 As the weak trough aloft moves to the east on Friday, we`ll be left with temporary ridging across North and Central Texas. Most locations will remain precipitation free with mostly sunny skies in place. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with light southerly winds. Upper ridging will likely persist through the first half of the day on Saturday before another period of troughing moves overhead. This next trough will once again bring low precipitation chances across much of North and Central Texas as weak embedded shortwaves move overhead. Confidence in the timing and coverage of any potential rain remains low this far out. Going into next week, we`ll maintain deep southerly flow across the region which should keep a mention of precipitation in the forecast. No organized thunderstorm activity is expected at this time given a lack of concentrated strong forcing. This pattern is more reminiscent of summer-like storms where afternoon destabilization will lead to a few storms, weakening around sunset. Given highly local factors will influence the location of thunderstorm development, the details regarding next week`s precipitation remain highly uncertain. Make sure to check back in the coming days for additional information regarding next week`s forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 VFR will prevail the rest of tonight, and streaming upper level cirrus will continue to spread northward at all TAF sites. Winds around D10 will continue to be variable in direction with speed around 5-6 KT or less overnight as a surface low continues to shift north, while ACT will remain out of the south. Some patchy mist/fog may develop near daybreak tomorrow, mainly across Central Texas, and have persisted with the TEMPO group at ACT. D10 terminals have lower chances for this patchy mist, and will keep them VFR for now. Winds will remain out of the west-northwest much of the day tomorrow before settling out of the south-southwest after 00Z. There continues to be low chances for isolated shower/storm development tomorrow afternoon across portions of North and Central Texas, but there is considerable uncertainty in where convective development will occur. Better chances look to be to the east of the airports, but will be dependent on any remnant outflow boundaries from the dissipating storms that approach the Bowie cornerpost tonight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 87 71 89 / 10 20 10 10 Waco 68 85 70 88 / 0 10 0 0 Paris 66 83 67 84 / 20 30 20 20 Denton 66 85 68 88 / 10 20 20 10 McKinney 67 85 69 88 / 10 20 20 10 Dallas 70 88 72 90 / 10 20 10 10 Terrell 67 86 68 88 / 10 20 20 10 Corsicana 70 88 71 90 / 10 20 10 10 Temple 69 87 71 89 / 0 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 65 86 67 88 / 10 20 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Prater