001
FXUS64 KFWD 261954
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
254 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1237 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/
/Through Thursday/

A thunderstorm complex is currently shifting south-southeast
across northeast Texas. It remains sub-severe in our area with
occasional wind gusts up to 40 mph likely in Delta and Hopkins
Counties over the next hour or so. Several convective attempts
have occurred along an outflow boundary extending west along the
Red River, but displacement from the main cold pool and some
modest MLCIN has kept these showers from seeing robust vertical
development. Slightly better chances (20-30%) for isolated to
widely scattered showers across North Texas look to arrive later
this evening as a cold front currently located near the KS/OK
border pushes south toward the Red River Valley. Most locations
will remain dry, but those that do become placed beneath a shower
or storm could see brief heavy rainfall and gusty downburst winds.
Isolated garden-variety thunderstorms will be possible again
Thursday primarily across the southwestern half of the CWA as the
aforementioned weak front pushes into North Texas.

Beyond the low rain chances, oppressive late June heat and
humidity will persist through the short-term forecast period.
Expect afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s with heat
index values peaking in the 105-110 degree range. It is possible
that several North Texas locations may approach Excessive Heat
Warning criteria by Thursday afternoon, but we will let the
evening/overnight crew look at this afternoon`s observations
before making that decision. For now, the current Heat Advisory
will be extended through Thursday evening. Nonetheless, it is hot
and you should continue to take the necessary precautions to
protect yourself, your family, and your pets from the heat!

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Through Independence Day/

Mid-level ridging will continue to bake North and Central Texas
into early July. The anticyclone will gradually reposition itself
from its current location over the Desert Southwest into the
Southeast U.S. by the middle of next week. Our 500mb heights will
peak during the weekend into early next week as the dome transits
the region, the cumulative heat yielding the highest temperatures
toward the end of that period (Monday and Tuesday).

This will mean clear nights and partly cloudy days as rich Gulf
moisture lifts into a cumulus field. DFW`s dew point soared to 77F
during the daylight hours of this morning, just one degree shy of
the record value for June 26. Thankfully, our daily max and min
dew points will gradually decrease over the next several days as
the heat builds and the mixing depth steadily increases. After
many days with 70F+ dew points at peak heating, much of the region
will see dew point values mix out into the 60s next week. That`s
not dry by any means, but max heat index values (while still
within Heat Advisory criteria) will be less likely to reach 110
despite the hottest temperatures so far this year.

The only decent chance for rain during the period will be Sunday
across portions of Northeast Texas. A shortwave will skirt the
Canadian border late in the week, sending a cold front deep into
the Southern Plains. But the intensity of the ridge will slow its
progress and prevent any associated precipitation from impacting
areas beyond the low chances within the Ark-La-Tex.

By July 4, North and Central Texas will be on the western
periphery of the ridge. While heights will still be indicative of
subsidence, the sea breeze may activate to our south, and another
cold front to our north could disrupt holiday festivities in
Oklahoma. Both areas will bear watching for potential impacts
within our region.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1237 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will likely prevail through much of the TAF period.
A complex of thunderstorms currently impacting the Bonham (BYP)
cornerpost will continue to shift south-southeast this afternoon
remaining well displaced from any TAF sites. An outflow boundary
extending along the Red River Valley continues to spark some very
isolated shower development north of the Metroplex. Very little
lightning has been observed in this activity. Slightly better
chances (~20-30%) for convection within D10 looks to arrive later
this evening after 02Z as a weak cold front approaches the Red
River Valley. These storms could bring brief gusty, variable
outflow winds to the D10 terminals.

Otherwise expect, south-southwesterly flow at 8-15 kts with
occasional 3-5kft cigs through the afternoon and evening. Winds
will likely shift more east-southeasterly early Thursday morning
behind a weak cold front.

Langfeld

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82 100  82 100  81 /  20   5   0   0   0
Waco                79  98  78  98  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
Paris               76  94  76  97  79 /  30   5   0   0   0
Denton              79 100  79 102  80 /  20   5   0   0   0
McKinney            79  98  79  99  80 /  20   5   0   0   0
Dallas              81 100  81 100  80 /  20   5   0   0   0
Terrell             78  97  78  97  78 /  20   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           80  97  80  99  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              78  99  77  98  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       79 101  78 101  79 /   5  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$