Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
089 FXUS64 KFWD 011044 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 544 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Tropical Storm Edouard is expected to bring the low potential for flash flooding to the Brazos Valley Wednesday. - Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across much of the Big Country through the weekend as hot and dry conditions are expected to continue. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 Although another hot summer day is expected across North and Central Texas with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s, the approach of Tropical Storm Edouard will bring low rain chances (10-30%) to the region this afternoon and evening. There are two primary reasons for the return of these lower rain chances: 1) The exceptionally moist tropical airmass associated with Edouard will substantially increase the humidity above the boundary layer. This will reduce the detrimental effects of entrainment that has largely inhibited diurnally driven convection the last month. 2) Forcing for ascent will move in with the approach of Edouard as the mid-level vort max approaches North and Central Texas from the southeast. While the amount of lift remains uncertain at this time, at least weak forcing can be expected by this evening especially in the vicinity of the Brazos Valley. Considering the two reasons above, very isolated showers (and potentially a thunderstorm or two) can be expected across much of North and Central Texas this afternoon and evening (10-20% chance). Rain chances will be higher (20-30%) further southeast into the Brazos Valley in closer proximity to Edouard. The most likely area to stay dry will be locations west of I-35 and north of I-20. Not only is this area furthest from the localized lift associated with Edouard, but forecast soundings continue to show much drier mid and upper-levels that will likely inhibit the development of diurnally driven convection. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 ...Wednesday through Friday... The expected remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard will slowly work into the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms (50-70% chance) possible in Central Texas Wednesday into Thursday. More isolated coverage of showers and storms is expected across North Texas during this same time frame. Another day of isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-30% chance) is possible Friday across North and Central Texas. Rain chances will again be greatest in Central Texas. Temperatures will vary greatly across the region during this time frame. Temperatures outside of the tropical remnants will continue to climb into the upper-90s and lower-100s each day. The most likely area to see these temperatures will be along and north of I-20, and west of I-35. In this area, fire weather concerns will continue with afternoon RH values continuing to drop into the 25-40% range and little to no rain expected into the weekend. Further southeast into the Brazos Valley, highs on Wednesday may not break out of the 80s. As the remnants of Edouard slowly dissipate the latter half of this work week, temperatures will be slow to rebound wherever cloud cover and rain lingers. This will likely result in highs in the low and mid 90s for much of Central and Eastern Texas Wednesday through Friday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be highest south of I-20 and east of I-35. Rainfall totals through Friday will range from half an inch to an inch for much of this area. However, localized areas may see greater rainfall totals than this with locations in the Brazos Valley potentially seeing 2-3 inches of rain by Friday. Furthermore, while the severe risk is low, MLCAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg will support a marginal damaging wind risk, especially for any thunderstorms that can develop in the drier air on the fringes of the incoming tropical airmass. With locally enlarged hodographs right near the center of the tropical remnants, a brief weak spin-up tornado in the Brazos Valley can`t be ruled out Wednesday as well. ...Saturday through Monday... The remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard are expected to dissipate by this weekend. As such, above normal temperatures will return to the region (especially across North Texas) with highs near or just above 100 by the start of next week. There will be daily chances for very isolated showers and storms (10-20%) from the Brazos Valley into East Texas where moisture is higher. Further north and west of this area, dry conditions will return as ridging shifts back east into the Great Plains. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 While there is a low chance (10-20%) for isolated showers between 18Z and 01Z today, probabilities are too low to warrant inclusion in the TAFs. Wind directions at KACT will vary throughout the day with the approach of Tropical Storm Edouard. As such, have included FM groups for possible flow changes on runway 1/19. D10 sites are expected to prevail VFR and S/SE flow (120-200) at 5-12 kts for the duration of this forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 79 98 77 / 10 10 30 40 Waco 100 75 95 75 / 20 30 60 50 Paris 99 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 20 Denton 101 76 99 74 / 10 10 20 30 McKinney 100 75 97 74 / 10 10 20 40 Dallas 101 79 96 78 / 10 10 30 50 Terrell 101 75 95 73 / 20 10 40 50 Corsicana 99 75 92 74 / 20 50 60 60 Temple 98 74 96 73 / 20 30 60 50 Mineral Wells 101 73 100 72 / 10 10 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah