Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
809 FXUS64 KFWD 250625 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 125 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon mainly across western North and Central Texas with gusty downburst winds possible. - Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will prevail through the remainder of the week, with an elevated fire weather threat on Friday due to low humidity. - A more active weather pattern will take shape next week with a cold front and widespread rain chances arriving during the midweek period. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Saturday) Issued at 114 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 A quiet start to the weekend is ahead, with today`s weather continuing the pattern of the last few days. Above-average temperatures will persist, with highs peaking in the low to mid 90s for most across North and Central Texas. An upper level ridge will remain dominant over our region today and into the overnight, keeping any chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms well into our western and northwestern counties. The main threat with any storm that can form, similar to the last few days, will be gusty winds, occasional lightning, and brief periods of heavy rainfall. Just like yesterday, expect any rain or storms to quickly die off after sunset. Tonight will be quiet and mild, as lows fall to the upper 60s and lower 70s. There is also an elevated fire threat today, mainly for sites east of I-35, as a strong low-level dry air intrusion will promote low RH values (25-35%) with our easterly surface flow. While winds will remain fairly light, grass fires as a result of sparking actions (dragging tow chains, tossing lit cigarettes) could be possible with dry fuels already in place. Remember to continue to follow local burn bans, and to secure all spark sources! Saturday, we will begin to see the first signs of our pattern shift coming next week, as the upper level ridge and strong subsidence that has plagued us thus far begins to break down. Lower heights associated with an amplifying trough to our west will overspread the region, bringing a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms for our far northwestern counties. Otherwise, expect light south winds with highs in the mid-90s again region wide. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 114 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Any convective complex approaching from Oklahoma Saturday night may linger into Sunday morning across portions of North Texas. The eventual placement of outflow will determine whether additional storms can redevelop Sunday afternoon, but overall coverage should remain scattered at best. Otherwise, Sunday will remain quite warm with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s. The larger-scale pattern will begin undergoing a more significant transition early next week as troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and a series of disturbances eject into the Plains. Southerly flow will strengthen locally, allowing deeper Gulf moisture to return ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Rain chances should begin increasing Monday night, but the better opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms appears to arrive Tuesday into Wednesday as shortwave troughing approaches North and Central Texas. Increasing moisture, including contributions from tropical moisture originating over the eastern Pacific, may support efficient rainfall rates and periods of heavy rain. There remains some uncertainty regarding the timing and strength of the approaching trough, as well as the evolution of the tropical system expected to make landfall along the west coast of Mexico on Tuesday. A faster solution would shift the heaviest rain east more quickly, while a slower evolution could prolong rain chances into the latter half of the week. Regardless, confidence is increasing in a period of more widespread beneficial rainfall than has occurred recently. Temperatures will respond accordingly, with the persistent 90 degree heat likely continuing through the early part of the week before clouds, rain, and post-frontal air allow highs to fall closer to seasonal normals. Highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s appear increasingly plausible during the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Concerns...None Easterly to southeasterly winds will persist across the region through the duration of this TAF cycle. Ceilings will remain in the VFR category as most clouds will remain AOA FL250. Occasional bouts of mid-level clouds will also move across the region, closer to 7k feet. Abundant moisture remains across the Texas Panhandle, leading to showers and storms at this time. This activity will persist well away from the region, generating no impacts to the D10 or Central Texas airspace. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 72 95 75 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 96 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 92 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 95 70 96 73 / 10 0 10 10 McKinney 94 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 96 72 96 76 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 94 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 93 68 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 98 69 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 97 69 97 70 / 20 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Davis LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez