Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
635 FXUS64 KFWD 291818 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 118 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly quiet and warm weather is expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures and low rain chances (~10-20%). - Scattered storms return to the forecast area-wide Tuesday through Thursday of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Weak ridging is now moving atop North and Central Texas, producing large scale subsidence throughout the region. This will help keep much of the region dry through the tonight. The one exception will be far northeast Texas, where lingering moisture and the influence of a trough across Arkansas may lead to a few thunderstorms later this afternoon. Overall, rain chances will be around 20% for areas near Sherman to Paris to Sulphur Springs. After sunset, expect all the precipitation to diminish, leaving behind continued light southerly winds. Overnight temperatures will be in the 70s with continued passing high clouds expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 The ridge will continue shifting east tomorrow as large-scale troughing overtakes much of the western CONUS. With southwesterly winds in place, a dryline will sharpen Saturday afternoon across West Texas. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop along the dryline with a general storm motion to the northeast. The latest guidance continues to keep the bulk of the storms just west of our area, however, an isolated thunderstorm late in the afternoon to early evening cannot be ruled out from near Bowie to Jacksboro and Graham. Going into Saturday night, any thunderstorm activity will move away from the region leaving behind precipitation-free weather. Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days of the week with highs in the lower to mid 90s throughout North and Central Texas. This is in large part due to the building ridge that will expand northward out of the Gulf. The large scale riding will be short- lived as the high pressure axis moves east and broad troughing sets in from the west. An overall stagnant weather pattern is expected Tuesday through the rest of next week with a fairly good amount of low-level moisture in place. This will lead to increasing afternoon storm chances Tuesday through Thursday, some of which could be strong to severe. Additionally, weak flow will lead to slow-moving storms which could generate localized flooding. Given the overall lack of strong focused forcing, placement, intensity and overall timing remain uncertain at this time. More details to come through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 No significant weather is expected at any of the North or Central Texas TAF sites through the next 30 hours. Southwesterly winds are now in place with a slight shift to southeasterly this evening. Wind speeds will remain below 10 kts, therefore, impacts from wind direction/speed are not expected. A few storms may develop across BYP this afternoon, however, they should remain NE of the D10 TRACON. Storms will subside after sunset leaving a precipitation-free night. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 94 76 94 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 74 92 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 72 91 73 91 / 10 0 0 0 Denton 74 94 75 93 / 0 0 10 0 McKinney 74 92 76 92 / 0 0 10 0 Dallas 76 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 73 92 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 74 92 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 72 91 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 72 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez