Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
668 FXUS64 KFWD 060705 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 205 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of North Texas through 8 PM today for afternoon heat indices ranging from 105-108 degrees. - Isolated thunderstorms (10-30% chance) are possible along and south of US-84 this afternoon and evening. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected across much of North and Central Texas this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Strong ridging over the Great Plains will continue to promote surface high pressure and synoptic scale subsidence across the region today into tonight. As such, most across North and Central Texas will remain hot and relatively cloud free. Temperatures will be above normal again today in the upper-90s and lower-100s. The return of more robust boundary layer moisture will bring very hot heat indices across the area this afternoon and evening ranging from 102-108. Locations where widespread feels like temperatures of 105-108 are expected are included in a Heat Advisory through 8 PM today. Further south (generally along and south of the US-84 corridor), isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) are expected to develop during the afternoon hours. These low rain chances are attributed to the presence of a weak upper-level cutoff low over Southeast Texas and the northwestern Gulf. The development of these storms and upper-level clouds from this disturbance should keep highs closer to normal in the low and mid-90s. While no severe weather is expected, the stronger storms will bring the potential for strong gusty winds and frequent lightning, so be weather aware in this area especially if you have outdoor Labor Day plans. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ...Monday through Wednesday... The ridge currently over the Great Plains and southeastern CONUS will continue to build to near record levels for this time of year with 500 hPa heights potentially exceeding 595 dm. This will keep conditions dry and temperatures well above normal in the upper-90s and lower-100s across all of North and Central Texas. The expansion of this ridge will also push the subtle upper-level disturbance responsible for low storm chances on Sunday further south into the Gulf. As such, the only potential for rain Monday through Wednesday will be for a stray shower or thunderstorm (10% chance) in the Brazos Valley during peak diurnal heating. By the latter half of the upcoming work week, the ridging over the Great Plains and southeastern CONUS will deamplify and give way to more zonal flow as a trough traverses from the Northern Rockies into the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. There is a weak signal from extended guidance that a cold front may approach the region from the north sometime Thursday or Friday, but this scenario remains uncertain at best with substantial inter-model and run-to-run variability. Regardless, weak height falls attributed to the de- amplification of this week`s ridge along with a very humid airmass in place at the surface will result in a very low chance (10-20%) for a few stray showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday into next weekend. Regardless of whether this storm potential is realized or not, temperatures will likely remain 7-10 degrees above normal through the end of this forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 There is a low chance (10-20%) of very isolated showers and thunderstorms along the US-84 corridor (KACT) between 18Z and 00Z today. While there is the low potential of brief terminal impacts to KACT, probabilities do not warrant inclusion into the TAFs at this time. Further north into D10, south/southeasterly flow at 7-13 knots and VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the duration of this forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 79 101 81 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 98 76 100 77 / 10 10 0 0 Paris 100 76 100 75 / 20 10 10 0 Denton 101 77 101 77 / 10 0 0 0 McKinney 99 77 99 77 / 10 10 0 0 Dallas 102 81 102 81 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 101 76 101 76 / 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 99 76 100 76 / 10 10 10 0 Temple 95 75 99 75 / 30 10 10 0 Mineral Wells 101 73 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107-118>123-133>135-146. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah