Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
854 FXUS64 KFWD 011152 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 552 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog has developed across eastern North and Central Texas and will continue through the rest of the morning. - The next storm system is forecast to sweep across the region Monday night into Tuesday. There is a low risk of severe weather, but details will continue to be refined over the weekend. - Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Tuesday after the showers and storms move east. && .UPDATE... Issued at 533 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas east of I-35, where widespread 1/4 mile visibility will lead to poor driving conditions. The immediate Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex is largely fog-free due to slightly warmer surface temperatures. Patchy dense fog will also be possible along and east of I-35, however, expect the patchy dense fog to be transient compared to areas under the Dense Fog Advisory. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 139 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 The main concern this early morning will be the development of low clouds and fog within the moist boundary layer left behind yesterday`s system. Light winds and pockets of clearing will favor increasing coverage of fog towards daybreak, with the greatest potential for widespread fog mainly across East and Central Texas. Conditions will improve fairly quickly during the late morning as mixing strengthens beneath a transient mid-level ridge. Cloud cover should scatter from west to east, leaving a dry and considerably warmer afternoon. Highs will reach the lower 80s across much of North and Central Texas, with light winds becoming increasingly southerly during the afternoon. Tonight will remain quiet, however, as a gradual pattern change will be taking place ahead of the next storm system slated to arrive on Monday. A deep trough moving through the Southwest will induce strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the central Plains. The resulting pressure falls will increase southerly flow across Texas overnight while Gulf moisture continues to deepen northward. Lows will remain mild, generally in the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 139 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A much more dynamic pattern will develop Monday as the western trough ejects into the Central and Southern Plains. Surface cyclogenesis across Kansas will strengthen the pressure gradient across Texas, resulting in sustained south winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 to 40 mph through much of the day. Strong warm and moist advection will push surface dewpoints into the 60s while temperatures climb into the lower and middle 80s. Most of North and Central Texas should remain dry through at least early afternoon, with the initial convective development favored farther west of our area, along the cold front. The thermodynamic environment will become increasingly favorable for strong to severe storms Monday evening as stronger ascent spreads east from the southern Rockies. A 40-50 kt LLJ will maintain moisture transport while modest warm surface temperatures yield roughly 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Although mid- level lapse rates will not be particularly steep, weak inhibition should allow storms to develop as the front arrives. Thunderstorm initiation should occur just west/northwest of our region with a mix of supercells or scattered storm clusters. As the storms spread east, storms will quickly transition to a linear mode capable of strong to damaging winds, quick spin up tornadoes and isolated instances of large hail. The overall severe weather threat will be greatest across North Texas, but strong storms may extend farther south as the front moves through the region. The front is slated to move through North Texas early Tuesday, progressing southward into Central Texas by the afternoon. The severe weather threat will quickly shift east of our region as the system continues it eastward trajectory A drier air mass will follow in the wake of the cold front. Strong pressure rises and deep mixing will produce northwest winds of 15-20 mph with occasional gusts to near 30 mph Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the 70s despite increasing sunshine. High pressure will continue to dominate through the rest of the week, leading to a stretch of quiet and seasonable fall weather. Afternoon highs will generally remain in the lower to middle 70s with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Another upper-level disturbance may traverse the central Plains late in the week, however, current guidance keeps the better moisture and precipitation well north of our region. Dry and pleasant conditions are expected through the remainder of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Concerns: IFR to LIFR conditions through 15z. Low visibility and ceilings are ongoing across northern and eastern portions of D10. Expect the poor flying conditions to gradually shift towards the DFW Metroplex TAF sites, with visibility dropping to 2-3 SM periodically between 12-15z. For Waco, expect a similar trend with the fog expected to be a bit more patchy compared to North Texas. Winds are relatively light across the region with a weak southeasterly component in place. Visibility improvements will likely commence after 15z as low- level mixing commences. VFR skies will return by the afternoon with some fair weather cumulus clouds expected. Another round of MVFR will be possible closer to 12z Monday as moisture streams north out of the Gulf. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 67 85 64 / 0 0 10 90 Waco 84 65 85 65 / 0 0 0 90 Paris 80 62 84 65 / 0 0 20 90 Denton 81 63 85 60 / 0 0 20 90 McKinney 81 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 90 Dallas 83 67 86 65 / 0 0 0 90 Terrell 82 64 85 64 / 0 0 10 90 Corsicana 82 66 85 67 / 0 0 10 80 Temple 86 65 86 65 / 0 0 0 80 Mineral Wells 82 63 84 58 / 10 0 30 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ094-095- 105>107-120>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez